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» Four Downs: NFC West
Minor weaknesses dot these teams. Except for Arizona, which needs to bring in more help to really run Bruce Arians' offense.
04 Jan 2006
Black and Blue Wild Card Report
by Will Carroll
As we put up the new calendar and begin flipping pages, we're down to 12 teams. It would seems that sending 20 teams home would make the job of keeping track of who's healthy and who's not that much easier, but don't count on it. Injuries and team health now have more of a perceived importance, and guys who are headed for a couple months of rehab are harder to keep track of when they're not under the constant watchful eye of team medical staffs and my network of sources. We'll take a quick look today at the eight teams that will be playing this week, plus a couple of other major injuries. We'll catch up with the top two seeds in each conference after a week of rest. The playoffs are ready, so let's get to it.
Cincinnati
If chanting “Who Dey� was enough to get the Linz Family the money in this year's Amazing Race, will it be enough for the Bengals? They'll face a familiar foe this weekend and deal with familiar injuries at the same time. The running back situation is fluid, with Rudi Johnson banged up due to workload, but rested and ready despite the knee injury. He'll have Chris Perry back behind him, though his cameo in Week 17 wasn't enough to tell us if the ankle is fully healed. Here's just the first of many teams that really could have used the off-week granted to the top two teams. Carson Palmer has fat bank now and a mild groin strain, neither of which should affect him in the game. Where Palmer does have a concern is with his tackle Levi Jones, who's struggling with a shoulder injury. The team looked bad against Kansas City, but who knows how that will carry into their third meeting with the Steelers, given that half those guys won't even be on the field this week. At least the defense is healthy and the fans will be rabid. You know, Cincy, they have shots for that now.
New England
There's a reason New England is playing on what's oddly called “Wild Card Weekend� rather than resting up and prepping Foxboro for another set of games. It's almost purely injury. While the comeback of Tedy Bruschi was perhaps the best medical story this season, his calf injury could mar the injury-decimated defense's ability to hold the Jaguars. With Rodney Harrison gone and Richard Seymour limited, Bruschi is once again the key to the team's defense, both physically and mentally. Over on the offensive side of the ball, Tom Brady and Corey Dillon have played through minor injuries effectively. Not having the bye week could factor in a bit here; they'll be challenged by the Jaguars, and one less week of rest is pretty massive for a team that really lacks depth at this stage. Still, this may be the healthiest that the Pats have been all season long and defending their championship is possible.
Jacksonville
The Jaguars may not have any axe injuries this season, but they've kept me busy all year long. With Byron Leftwich back (though David Garrard will probably see some time and action), the team is worried about its defense. Mike Peterson will try to play with a cast on his wrist, but the team is shifting linebackers in practice to be sure they're ready if Peterson is unable to go or ineffective if he does. Defensive ends Reggie Hayward and Paul Spicer are dealing with injuries while the Jags are trying to keep the condition of Kenny Wright quiet. All three will play, though how well remains a question. How well Leftwich will play, on the other hand, is not. The quick-healing freak QB is not expected to have any limitations and my best Jaguars source says his mobility is at or near normal. Running back Greg Jones is expected to play, but will be limited after missing two weeks. Fred Taylor is likely to get the bulk of carries, and the Pats will see some of LaBrandon Toefield.
Pittsburgh
There's only one injury that's counted all season for the Steelers. Yes, I realize they dealt with injuries to the running backs all season, but the Steelers handled that the way smart teams do – with depth. Whichever running back lined up behind Ben Roethlisberger didn't matter. They each brought something different but the same results. The same wasn't true when Roethlisberger was out with a knee injury. Back due to the advances in sports medicine, Roethlisberger has been affected more by his thumb injury than he ever was by the cartilage tear. According to team sources, Roethlisberger's injury has reduced his touch, resulting in more drops. “He throws the ball too hard on some short throws,� I was told, “and can't drop it over a defender like he normally can.� On the defensive side, only Kimo von Oelhoffen has any real concern. His sore ribs will keep him from playing as much as normal, forcing more of a rotation on that strong Steelers front line.
Carolina
The Panthers head into their first playoff game relatively healthy. Once Stephen Davis gave up the ghost on this season, the team really didn't have many serious issues. DeShaun Foster has some questions about his painful toe and his durability. He was available for duty during the Panthers' push, putting up some nice yardage. Still, his ability to run will be a major factor in whether the Panthers are a challenge or a pushover. I think it's pretty clear that the Panthers ability to stay healthy, or what passes for healthy in the NFL, is the reason they're headed to the postseason and several other teams are headed for tee times. Add in a great comeback from Steve Smith and you have a nice formula for winning. Over on the defensive side, only Dan Morgan is a question. He's expected to play, but his status is questionable in both senses. If he plays, only the Panthers have much of an idea how effective he'll be.
Washington
Beyond the Clinton Portis Crazy Train Whistle Stop Tour, the Redskins have a number of important inuries that will affect the team as they head to Tampa. Portis has a sore shoulder that was exacerbated in Week 17, but figures to strap up and be the same great back he has been for the last month. The defensive backfield is a much bigger question with Carlos Rogers (biceps), Matt Bowen (knee) and Shawn Springs (back, groin) expecting to play but likely to be targeted by Jon Gruden. The ability of Joe Gibbs and his staff to protect those players, spot in the backups smartly, and gameplan effectively will be key. The linebackers will also be tested – Chris Clemons joins Mark Brunell in the “torn MCL, still playing� club, which may force more playing time on LaVar Arrington. The Skins are also hopeful Brunell's knee won't continue to be the problem it has been. Brunell's knee problem and lack of mobility have put the load on Portis. A return to the playoffs may have to be enough for the Redskins if the strain of just getting there broke the team down this much.
Tampa Bay
It was last year when I was sitting at the NFL combine with two scouts, trying to convince men that know infinitely more about football than me that Cadillac Williams was going to be a better NFL back than Ronnie Brown. It's hard to tell in the abstract, but Williams has the hardware, despite a foot injury that continues to limit him some. That injury will come more into play if the Bucs find themselves in a cold-weather situation again. Michael Clayton won't play throughout the playoffs due to turf toe, but the team hasn't missed him and won't. The rest of the team is relatively healthy, with only Jermaine Phillips (knee) and Anthony McFarland (hamstring) worthy of even a brief mention. Aside from the long-injured Brian Griese, this is the team that Jon Gruden expected to take to the playoffs. If I gave out something like the Dick Martin Award for Best Medical Staff in the NFL – and yes, I'm working on a method for doing that for next season – I have a feeling that Todd Toriscelli would be looking for shelf space. Then again, I'd like to hear some of you pigskin medheads make a case for your team in comments.
New York Giants
While Jeremy Shockey has some minor matching ankle injuries, it's a depleted linebacking corps that will be the biggest injury situation for the Giants. All three of the season-opening starters, Antonio Pierce, Carlos Emmons, and Reggie Torbor, are all out this week or beyond. That would test the depth of any team, and the Giants are scrambling for options. Is there any pattern to the series of ankle injuries the Giants have suffered? From this vantage point, no, but the sheer numbers are hard to ignore. It could be turf, shoes, taping philosophy, or just dumb luck, but I'm sure the Giants will be trying to figure it out to keep this from recurring next season.
Bigger Bumps and Bruises
Drew Brees ended the season on the sideline, but reports have him not staying there long. A labrum tear is a death sentence for a pitcher, but surgery to return is only four months according to the best sources in football. I'll remain skeptical, wondering if my initial instinct of thinking “Brees = Chad Pennington� is a good equation. That would make the Chargers' off-season decision on Philip Rivers even more important … The Bears will be covered in more depth next week, but seeing Cedric Benson running last week was an important moment. The franchise reached the postseason on the strength of its defense, but Benson signals an improved offense for the future. His knee injury at midseason looked serious and the type of injury that has ended careers or at least kept talented players from reaching their potential. Benson and the Bears medical staff deserve kudos now and when Benson puts up a couple thousand-yard seasons down the line … Braylon Edwards had his ACL repaired this week and expects to be ready for the start of the 2006 season. Remember that while a return to playing comes in about that time, it often takes another full season to regain full performance … Special thanks to Rotowire.com for all their assistance this season. They've deserved a byline on much of my reports … It's a nice irony to be a (mostly) baseball writer who lives in what's becoming a great football town. A #1 playoff seed and being the home of the Combine is turning Indy into a pigskin bonanza … It's an admittedly small pool, but have there ever been more valuable twins than the Barbers, Ronde and Tiki? … No offense to the city and its residents, but “The Road to Detroit� doesn't have quite the ring of some warmer destinations, does it?
39 comments, Last at 07 Jan 2006, 4:34am by laura
Comments
Ya' know, it may be useful to publish a running injury metric during the season, like starter games, and second-order starter games, lost to injury during the season, to allow a quick comparison between teams. I'd include nickel back and situational defensive linemen in such a calculation, while seperating out special teams starters.
Too bad the Bengals aren't facing the dysfunctional Godlewskis, the handicapped Bransens("I'm so slooooowwwww" Wally), or the inbred Weavers.
Then again, can the Steelers build their own tepee? Huh? Huh?
RE Pittsburgh
There’s only one injury that’s counted all season for the Steelers
You overlooked Marvel Smith. If anyone thinks Smith`s health is not important to The Steelers, take a look at their W-L record with and without Marvel. Essex has gained valuable experience during MS`s absence but their OL is not the same without their vet LT.
How is Smith looking for Sunday?
So, I'm curious about what you mean about Seymour being "limited." Clearly I'm totally out of the loop. What's up with Seymour?
Are you really confident that Cedric Benson is going to be that good? Or is the glow of the Bears' great season just rubbing off on him? If they had finished 5-11 instead of 11-5, then I have a feeling that we'd be hearing endless comparisons to Salaam, Enis, et al. That conclusion would also be unfounded - we hardly know anything more about this guy than we did on draft day.
Carson Palmer has fat bank now and a mild groin strain, neither of which should affect him in the game
What is this "fat bank" that Carson Palmer has?
I think fat bank = lots of money. He just signed a new contract extension.
#6
the big contract extension he just signed.
We should totally make up some injury and call it "fat bank." Nominations?
Benson - jeez, he's a Longhorn, so I have no qualms crushing him for that. I do know that given the circumstance, he still has a chance to be as good as people think he might be.
Marvel - good point. Lineman are tough to get a read on, so I'm waiting on the injury reports like everyone else there.
Will Allen - email me. That's an interesting concept.
Or, we could use "fat bank" to mean a case of complacency caused by a large contract award.
"That receiver hasn't thrown a block yet this game. He's clearly suffering from fat bank."
Chris McAlister has been suffering from a 'fat bank' for quite a while now.
I immediately thought of that classic E-Trade commercial..... 'what seems to be the problem nurse? this man has money coming out of the wazoo'
I also had not heard anything about Seymour being "limited". Except for the Miami game his workload hasn't diminished. While he hasn't been consistently dominant he does seem to be drawing plenty of double teams.
Seymour is not listed on the Pats injury report at all, conspicuously absent from the Sea of Probables. As if that's a reliable source of accurate, detailed information. :D
'Fat bank' sounds like some body part swollen with fluid ('team doctors drained his fat bank during halftime and we expect to see him back on the field during the second half') - or perhaps a glandular disorder. Either way, not something I'd want to be associated with... blecch.
This isn't the place for it, but I'm not sure where the proper place would be...
How can somebody be SUCH a homer that they select Koren Robinson and Roy Williams as Comeback Player of the Year? How can someone defend such choices? They BOTH had worse years then last year...
At least I'd listen to arguments for Mark Brunell and Joey Galloway (who have 'comeback' from the ravages of Father Time), and Kyle Vanden Bosch (who has 'comeback' from that fiery pit nigh Hell, aka the Arizona Cardinals).
Seriously though... fans and the NFL both should be marching with torches to the Detroit and Minnesota homers that made those picks. At the very least, they should NEVER be allowed to vote for anything ever again.
My wife says my fat bank is right next to my medulla oblongata, but much larger of course. Women are all interested in health issues. You can tell how big it is, roughly, by flicking your finger at the side of your head and seeing if you get a very dull "thwock" sound. The duller the sound, the bigger the fat bank.
Sounds as if Marvel Smith is planning on starting.
Check the Steelers notebook from today that I linked to.
Seymour has been far from limited in the past 5-6 weeks. The run defense has totally turned around since his re-emergence (although against inferior competition) and he is playing at a Pro-bowl level again. With the double-teams he commands, it's really opened it up for Bruschi, Vrabel and Rosie to make the plays and keeping Wilfork from being thrown back five yards every run. Just ask the Cadillac.
RE: 10
that would mean TO has suffered from "Fat Bank" his entire career?
For those of you who don't know, it was not just a contract extension for Carson Palmer that caused the words "Fat Bank" to be put into this column is was a $118.0 Million extension for I belive 6-7 year range. have to check the web site again.
RE: 16
start your own blog
Re: 15
Then "Fat Bamk" would only apply to those players that have fat? IE Gurads, Tackles, Centers, DT's, and sometimes DE's?
Of course "Fat Bank" should be made to mean that for every pound of "Fat" that a player is required to loose by a head coach in presason has a monetary amount attached to it and then that "Fat Bank" is given to a charity of the NFL's designagtion
Will (Allen),
Regarding a cumulative injury metric:
I've actually played with doing just that, but with a little finer gradation. I came up with four categories of players on a team:
0 - "Replacement level" - Anyone signed off the street after being cut in training camp, or anyone that is, or is expected to be, a "healthy scratch" more than about twice a season
1 - "Backup" - Any player that doesn't start (excluding major "specialists" such as nicklebacks or 3rd down RB's who have above average ability and play a critical role in the offense/defense) but routinely plays a down or two to spell a starter. Includes special teamers except for P and K.
2 - "Starter" - Any consistent starter or specialist (nickleback/3rd down RB) who plays above average and plays a critical role. Alos includes P and K.
3 - "Potential Pro-bowler" - Any player for which a good argument could be made that he is one of the best at his position.
Then, over the course of the year, I count the number of games each player misses due to injury, and multiply it by that player's category. So for example, Richard Seymour (a 3) missing 4 games would count for 12 points, while Christian Fauria (a 1) missing 4 games would only count for 4 points. Losing Hanke Poteat (a 0) wouldn't add to the metric.
The problems with this approach:
(1) it's a little subjective, dividing the players in this way. I.e. is Kevin Faulk a 1 or a 2? It demands familiarity with a team, but that familiarity often goes with conceit (some fans would list half their starters as 3's).
(2) It doesn't take into account players that play injured, less effectively.
(3) It doesn't take into account that losing multiple players at the same position at the same time is more damning than losing equivalently ranked players for the same number of games but at different times.
As of week 14, the Patriots score (I'm a Pats fan, if people couldn't guess) using this method was ~236. But I'm not familiar enough with other teams to see how they compare. I was planning on asking other people to try to calculate this index for their favorite teams.
OK, for the year, the Patriots' injury metric by my system was 267. I would be interested to see how some other teams that were "ravaged by injury" compare. But it takes a fan very familiar with a team to distinguish a 1 from a 2 in some cases--it's not something you can get from nfl.com's stats.
RE: 21
so use your Injury Metric System and figure out the score for green bay and let me know. I am curious since they have had to use about 6 different RB's this year along with the loss of Javon Walker and a few other people
Or better yet post it in a thread so those of us that can do the math can use it to figure it out ourselves
I'd love to figure it for other teams, but I'm not familiar enough with any team other than the Patriots to tell what categories different players might fall in to. I can identify the 3's pretty easily (as they are famous names talked about for the Pro-Bowl), but how do I tell a 0 from a 1 from a 2? For example, on the Patriots, I made judgement calls to consider Kevin Faulk as a "2" rather than a "1" because even though he's a "backup", he's a regular 3rd down back who is a vital part of their passing game, but Patrick Pass is a "1" because even though he's the "starting fullback", he almost never plays when both Dillon and Faulk are completely healthy except to spell one of them. I wouldn't expect a Packers fan to be familiar with those distinguishments. But I don't have enough intimate knowledge (of offensive linemen and backup running backs, etc.) of the Packers to figure out if every player who has missed time due to injury is a 0, 1, or a 2.
But I'd love to see what their score was. It's easy to figure out. For the Patriots, I went to their roster on NFL.com, and for every name that wasn't some backup lineman or something brought up from the practice squad or signed midway through the season, I clicked on their name to see if they had been active for 16 games. If not, I had to look up (or remember) if they were ever a healthy scratch (and if they were more than like twice, it ranks them as a 0 so they don't count towards the index). Otherwise, I would rank them as a 1, 2, or 3, and multiply that number by the number of games they missed due to injury and add it to the total. If you're familiar with a team's roster and have been following them, it should only take about 10 minutes to calculate.
Yeah, TO has suffered from fat bank his entire career. :D
MJK, the injury numbers are cool, thanks for doing that for the Pats. Now we need fans of the other teams to calculate it for theirs.
An even tougher part of the equation then the relative value of players that miss games is how limited some players were in some games they played.
Tomlinson in the last part of the year seemed quite average compared to when I saw him earlier.
Bruschi, in his first few games back, wasn't the player he was, but has improved steadily since.
The patriots often have players that are hurt much worse then we know, starks this year is one of many examples. We might or might not ever find out about some injurys.
It's not just games missed but also games at a reduced level.
I thought a fat bank was what linemen like Grady Jackson have hanging over his belt.
mikeabbott,
I mentioned that in my above comment. Another example--Willie McGinest played about five games with a cast on his hand, which really limited his ability to fight off blocks and was one of the things (along with Seymour's injury) that cripple the Pats' pass rush. But the problem with trying to include that in a metric is that it is VERY subjective. If a player plays injured do you count that as a half-game worth of injury? Three quarters? Maybe you go from ranking a player who is normally a 3 as only a 2? I considered trying that, but I thought that would put way too many "opinion" variables in the metric.
RE: 23
I did a quick calculation for Green Bay and I came out with a score of 159
If everyone does a quick calculation on their favorite team and posts the number they come up with, I'll throw it all into a table online somewhere, and we can see if this metric seems to correlate well with conventional wisdom about what teams were injured (and maybe with W-L record--wouldn't it be interesting if team success had a very high correlation with injuries? Maybe conditioning coaches should be paid more?)
And after futher review and couting the other 8 players that were also on IR I came up with a final Injury Metric Score for Green Bay of 204
RE: 29
Well I know for sure that whoever was the conditioning coach for Green Bay ought to go the way of Mike Sherman. I couted almost 13 playes on IR from green bay this year, granted that not all of them were impact players like Javon Walker or Ahman Green but.... 13 my god that is a third of the team roster gone for a whole season, that really makes you think
1)The team looked bad against Kansas City, but who knows how that will carry into their third meeting with the Steelers, given that half those guys won’t even be on the field this week.
Huh?
2)I thought Richard Seymour was healthy.
3)Why would David Garrard play against New England? That doesn't make sense.
4)"Gave up the ghost" means being placed on IR? Strange vernacular.
5)Beyond the Clinton Portis Crazy Train Whistle Stop Tour...
What?
6)Chris Clemons and Mark Brunell do not have torn MCLs. They may be sprained or damaged, but they aren't torn.
Benson and the Bears medical staff deserve kudos now and when Benson puts up a couple thousand-yard seasons down the line...
What the hell? That makes no sense on several levels...
RE: 6
Yeah, that phrase is not in my language. I'm assuming it means "Carson Palmer has a lot of money" or "Carson Palmer has a fat bank account."
RE: 25
Starks has been suffering from fat bank ever since he signed that free agent contract with the Cardinals.
RE: cumulaltive injury matrix
I figured the injury matrix for The Team With The Worst Record in Football and it came out to be 205. This was listing Davis as a 3. With the large number of level 1 players, it was no wonder the Texans were not very good.
OK, so we've got:
NE: 267
HOU: 205
GB: 204
Keep 'em coming, people! And don't forget to count injured reserve!
Opinion question--if a player winds up on IR after training camp and never plays a snap all season, should that play count as an "injury" for all season? It doesn't affect the Pats this year (the only such player was a rookie LB who therefore counts as a "0"), but what if a major player got hurt in or right before training camp (Kellen Winslow?)? My feeling is that a player should only count as an "injury" if the team didn't have a chance to replace him before the season starts--i.e. if he is injured after the draft and after free agency has wound down.
(Hmmm, on that note, maybe I shouldn't count six of Bruschi's seven missed games, but on the other hand, I would have to count Ted Johnson retiring unexpectedly due to injury right at the start of training camp--so the net effect is about the same).
On the other hand, we could just consider injuries that happen to players on the opening day roster. That might be clearer...
It looks like Shawn Springs is going to be a scratch tomorrow.
i just found a few little errors here. you said that the redskins' chris clemons has a torn MCL but was still playing. that's not correct; he was put on IR over a week ago. You also stated that brunell has a torn MCL, but he doesn't --he only sprained his knee. that's all...
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