Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Dec 2008

Black & Blue Report: December 2, 2008

by Will Carroll

Admittedly, I'm biased, but looking at the standings, it's easy to tell which teams have managed to avoid major injuries. Those at the top are healthy and those at the bottom are often not. Sure, there's a team like the Patriots that can overcome a crushing Tom Brady injury and stay in contention, but even the best days of Matt Cassel aren't Bradyesque (and he hasn't bedded even a B-list starlet yet, so how good can he be? Oh, wait.) The modern NFL is defined by talent parity, lack of depth, and little deviance from 8-8 mediocrity. In that case, it's keeping the talent on the field (medical staff) and in position to win (field staff) that determines things beyond mere execution. One is for the most part intangible, but health? Health is perhaps the most tangible thing, especially inside the walls of the teams themselves. We talk at this stage of the season about a team taking a long look in the mirror as they decide how good they are or how to rebuild. Many of them should avoid that look and instead, look inside the training room. Let's get to the injuries:

The Cowboys got hit with a double whammy, losing the key players on the offense and defense within moments of each other. Luckily, it could have been a lot worse. Marion Barber dislocated his fifth (pinkie) toe and it had to be reduced in the locker room. It's a very painful injury, but not as key to push off as the others. Where it will be tested is in lateral movements and, to a lesser extent, in stopping. Barber isn't a start-stop runner -- he is slowed by tackles, not his own power -- so he should be able to get back to a reasonable level relatively quickly. For this week, it's a question of pain tolerance on Barber's part and prudence on the Cowboys' part. If he can safely go, he will, though it's likely to be a timeshare with Tashard Choice for at least a week. On the defensive side, DeMarcus Ware injured his knee on a rush. He was thrown off balance and took a step awkwardly, hyperextending his knee. He was being propped up during the postgame interview while denying the knee hurt, always fun to see. However, Ware's injury was one of his own body weight, not of additional weight, and that saved him. It's sore and a bit swollen, as of Monday, but the medical staff expects him to be able to play this week. There is some question of whether he will, though again, they have a couple days of practice and treatment before they make any final decisions.

It was a tough week for Browns fans, just another in a tough year. Romeo Crennel is on life support as coach, but he'll have to rely on Ken Dorsey to quarterback him home with Brady Quinn on the IR due to a torn tendon in his finger and now an MCL sprain for Derek Anderson late in the game against the Colts. Anderson won't need surgery, but at this stage in the season, there is not enough time for him to get healthy. The knee injury and Quinn's emergence might end Anderson's time in Cleveland. Whoever is throwing the ball next year has to hope that Kellen Winslow has a healthier season in '09. After a litany of problems including a controversial infection, Winslow now has a high ankle sprain that could keep him out for the rest of the season. It's again an issue of timing more than severity; Winslow will miss two weeks, but there's a question of whether the Browns will want to have him out there for two meaningless games in a season where he's taken some dangerous injuries.

No one likes to hear "groin" and "very sore" in the same sentence. That's what Bills fans are dealing with, but just think about Trent Edwards, who's actually feeling it. As the Bills head north this week to play in Toronto, Edwards may not be on the field, but if so, the field itself could be an issue. The Bills are one of the last teams to play on AstroTurf, a new compound called Gameday Grass which is more like FieldTurf but has additional cushioning underneath. Rogers Centre has FieldTurf that is more suited for baseball than football, as the Argonauts complaints show. There were no problems of note during the Bills' preseason game in Toronto, but with a sore groin, the harder surface could be an issue if Edwards does play.

Sometimes it's more than just injury that decides how long a player is out. Matt Schaub was the backup Monday after Gary Kubiak decided that Schaub's lack of lateral movement made re-injury too much of a risk. Then Sage Rosenfels went out and had a big game. Now Schaub's return this week is in a bit of question. It's a common issue and while I don't have any opinion on who should play, it does show why assessing the recovery of players is so tough. Schaub gets credit for being active, but he didn't play. Next week, he may be able to play, but might not. That shows up in injury stats in very confusing and conflicting ways. At least it's well known, unlike the decisions we don't understand for less visible players. All in all, it looks like Schaub will be available and that the knee shouldn't be an issue going forward. Schaub's inability to stay healthy is becoming an issue in discussions about how good he can be.

Clinton Portis may be playing for the memory of Sean Taylor, but with the injuries piling up, Taylor's ghost may want to tell Portis to take it easy on himself. Portis injured his neck Sunday and is reportedly very sore. Alternately described by sources as a muscle strain and a stinger, the neck is one area that a player can't gut through. In addition to his hip, knee, and ankle problems, this neck injury and the presence of a healthy Ladell Betts may push Portis to the sidelines for a week to recover or, at the very least, cost him carries.

Is Aaron Rodgers a star or a disappointment? Is Ryan Grant a stud or a creation of a good line and solid system? Those questions haunt the Packers right now, and with Grant ineffective Sunday, many are wondering how much was a product of his injured thumb and how much was Brandon Jackson's solid day. Grant's thumb isn't that big an issue -- more a pain tolerance issue than an "oh crap, he's going to fumble" issue -- which is one of the main reasons he didn't return to the game. Grant remains the titular starter, but the thumb will give Mike McCarthy cover to turn the Packers backfield into more of a timeshare.

The Colts have been a story of injuries all season long. With Jeff Saturday likely out again, the Colts offensive woes are at least understood and something the team has dealt with throughout the season. Across the ball, the undersized "bend don't break" defense keeps breaking down, if not breaking. It's one thing to lose Bob Sanders and beat the Texans and Browns, but Gary Brackett's injury may be more damaging. The Tampa-2 funnels a lot to the weak side linebacker, so pushing Freddy Keiaho inside weakens the run defense, and Melvin Bullitt isn't Bob Sanders in run support. Of course, Sanders is expected back next week, though his knee is back in 2006 week-to-week mode and they'll likely be very conservative with him. Brackett's injury is said to be to the ankle, but watching the play, it looks more like a knee mechanism to me. We'll have to see later in the week, but don't be surprised if the Colts essentially move Sanders to linebacker by playing a modified version of the nickel, with both Sanders and Bullitt on the field.

Look, this fauning article about James Harrison is nice. Yes, I understand that the NFL is built on a culture that will gladly play through pain but at some point, we're cheering for men who are very literally killing themselves. Harrison was able to play after hyperextending his back due to chemistry and toughness. Harrison describes the "hot stuff" -- likely a counterirritant pushed in by a delivery system like DMSO -- but leaves out the painkiller injections that he had. Yes, a player can play through a back injury safely and yes, Harrison seems to do so. They're compensated well, but that doesn't mean we should turn a blind eye to it.

Bumps and Bruises

The NFL is expected to rule on the StarCaps suspensions Tuesday, but no decision had been leaked at deadline. If the NFL doesn't punish these players, even at a reduced amount, they've kicked the remaining teeth out of their joke of a drug policy ... Reggie Bush didn't have any setbacks during Sunday's game, largely because he never tested it ... Whether or not he was tired at the end of the game, Steven Jackson didn't reinjure his quad on Sunday. He'll be an intriguing pick next season ... Willie Parker did well splitting time with Mewelde Moore, and more importantly, his knee held up ... Both Malcolm Floyd and Wes Welker have injuries, but neither team is giving details. Floyd has a bruised shoulder that may have some structural damage, while Welker is dealing with a concussion after a big hit ... Donnie Avery has been playing through a hip pointer that hasn't been getting better. Watch his status this week ... Ben Utecht is done for the season with a strained arch in his foot.

Posted by: Will Carroll on 02 Dec 2008

4 comments, Last at 03 Dec 2008, 8:23am by ammek

Comments

1
by deflated (not verified) :: Tue, 12/02/2008 - 4:07pm

With a first paragraph like that how about taking a look at how the Broncos have managed to stay afloat with the pile of injuries they've had, particularly LB/DB and RB? They may not be a great team but to be looking towards January while missing Bailey and playing their #5 RB and #8 LB is pretty unexpected. Not critical positions for them, the defense couldn't get any worse anyway or completely unexpected depth from the rookies? Any help on the way?

2
by B :: Tue, 12/02/2008 - 4:37pm

No word on Welker? I'm pretty sure he got a concussion from that hit he took agains Pittsburgh, which is what kept him out of the rest of the game, but the Patriots won't say the C word so they can have the option of playing him next week.

3
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Tue, 12/02/2008 - 5:53pm

It says that in the article.

4
by ammek :: Wed, 12/03/2008 - 8:23am

Is Ryan Grant a stud or a creation of a good line and solid system?

Good line? Is this the Packers you're talking about?

Grant hasn't looked comfortable all season since suffering a totally predictable HUGPBD injury in preseason (hold out, get paid, break down). He's been overcalculating, missing lanes, and recently taking his eye off pitched balls and the rare screens the Packers run. It's tempting to analyze this kind of behavior as the lasting effect of injury: Grant no longer trusts his body and his instincts. However, half a season of good play isn't enough to assure us that he is more than a replacement-level back who got hot in December 2007.

Any news on Scott Wells, the Green Bay center who apparently suffered a concussion which wasn't diagnosed until he snapped the ball three miles over Aaron Rodgers' head? How was that allowed to happen? (The lack of diagnosis, I mean; I can well imagine how the snap came about.) I believe different teams have different procedures for dealing with concussions; is the Packers' system deficient?

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