Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Most Recent FO Features

BradyTom00-8.jpg

» Super Bowl XLVI Quick Reads

Eli Manning and Tom Brady were nearly equal in value in the Super Bowl. One of them had to lose. What effect will that have on their legacies? Plus, the best players of Super Bowl XLVI and the game's DVOA ratings.

15 Oct 2009

Black and Blue Report: October 15, 2009

by Will Carroll

Kyle Boller

Kyle Boller's run as Rams starting quarterback is probably done. He's the victim of awful play, the return of Marc Bulger, and a concussion. While Boller has been cleared to return (but not to play), it's unlikely that the Rams will push things with him. Boller's injury comes at a time when concussions are in the news, with HBO doing a story on high school concussions and the dangers of second impact syndrome. The New York Times has kept a ton of pressure on the subject with their extensive reporting. Finally, Malcolm Gladwell weighed in with a piece that could shift perception. His comparison of NFL football and the damage done to dogfighting, something universally seen as repugnant, is precisely the type of paradigm-breaker that Gladwell has made his career on. Our game charters don't count collisions per player or helmet-to-helmet hits, but it would probably frighten me if they did. Ray Lewis just about decapitated Chad Ochocinco last week, with Ocho saved only by the fact that he doesn't strap his helmet properly. We can only imagine if the angle or location was a bit different that Ocho's head might have been in the helmet when it flew off. (No, I'm not kidding.) The NFL is starting to feel the pressure about head injuries, so it will be interesting to see if Roger Goodell takes the chance to be in front of the issue or hides behind the labor negotiations as he has with the drug policy.

Carson Palmer

The Bengals have ridden the excitement of Hard Knocks to a 4-1 record. I mean, it's as plausible as anything else, right? No, the team is just playing well and Carson Palmer has been healthy. The last time he was healthy, this was a playoff team. Palmer suffered a sprained left thumb during Sunday's game and is wearing a glove in practice. That glove is covering some kind of tape or bracing. Since he's right-handed, the left hand only factors into snaps, handoffs, and play-action. It's the first that will hurt the most, but the last is where it's most problematic. A switch to shotgun would fix both, and the Bengals so far this season rank 11th in percentage of offensive plays that use shotgun (42 percent).

Eli Manning

The Giants raised a lot of questions by pulling Eli Manning just before the half in their blowout win against the Raiders. It was the smart move and I don't understand why more teams don't make the same decision. I know that Eli's brother rails at the staff when he can't push the ball and pump his stats, but around the league, injury prevention matters and running up the score doesn't. Eli's struggle with plantar fasciitis isn't going away because he sat out, but he also didn't push it. Manning's problem came when he took the wrong series of actions, and the pain buckled his knees. Manning will probably miss practice as the Giants keep him going in treatment, buying him rest when they can. While there's no reason to think Manning can't keep playing at this level, he's always one wrong step away from being on the sidelines for the wrong reason.

Peyton Manning

Peyton Manning wears a knee brace that is similar to (or could be) this type of brace. The Colts, naturally, refused comment, but an "insider" described the brace used by Manning. That brace costs about 600 bucks, which is nothing compared to $823,500 -- roughly what Manning makes per game. It's nothing compared to what the Colts are paying Tony Ugoh and the brace offered a lot more protection than Ugoh did. In essence, that brace might end up as the MVP of the Colts' season, because while Manning is durable, he's not indestructable. One targeted shot by Kyle Vanden Bosch could have derailed Manning and the Colts, but a few hundred bucks -- and a backup at the ready after Vanden Bosch bent the aircraft-grade aluminum -- might be the best money spent in Indianapolis this year. Manning's knee is a bit sore from the hit, but it could have been a whole lot worse. Now, explain to me why every QB isn't wearing one of these?

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson

The Lions are going to be very conservative with Matthew Stafford. We knew that last week after his patellar subluxation. With Calvin Johnson also injured, they're likely to be even more conservative. Daunte Culpepper is available and wasn't half bad, but everyone in Michigan knows that once Stafford is ready, there's nothing Culpepper can do to keep himself off the bench. With Johnson potentially unavailable this week, they may let Culpepper take the abuse. Johnson's knee is thought to be the problem, though the team didn't crutch or brace him after the injury -- he was seen on the sidelines with ice -- and Johnson's initial reaction was to grab higher on the leg, near his groin. Still, Adam Schefter is dialed in and has consistently called this a sprained knee. Even a mild strain is going to keep Johnson on the sidelines at least a week.

Frank Gore

If American Express were still doing those "Do you know me?" ads, Frank Gore would be perfect. I bet a ton of fantasy players who have drafted Gore late in the first round over the past couple seasons wouldn't know him if he knocked on their door. Quick -- does he have a mustache? Gore's always been productive despite injuries and he isn't as injury prone as many would suggest. Sure, he'll miss a couple games here or there, just like he is now, but by the end of the season, even on bad teams, he gets his numbers. His high ankle sprain is progressing, but the Niners won't push him with the bye coming; he'll be back in Week 7. That means Gore is the starter and Glen Coffee gets some extra time to heal up his own ankle issue.

(And no, he doesn't have a mustache.)

Willie Parker

Willie Parker might be coming back after missing time with turf toe, but let's remember two things. First, turf toe lingers. Second, there might not be much for Parker to come back to. Parker seems to have been Pipped by Rashard Mendenhall while Parker was out, but this goes deeper, as a look at Football Outsiders Almanac 2009 will show you. Parker's decline has been evident for a while and Mendenhall's pick a couple years ago was in clear response to that. Parker, like most running backs, isn't aging well and chronic injuries tend to accelerate the curve. Without a long-term database to draw from, it's impossible to give specifics or even test against the perception, but several NFL officials I spoke with agreed with the basic tenet: older players not only show their age, but give signs of that aging before completely succumbing. Parker's at that stage, so the question now is: Could he be an adequate No. 2 running back or even a decent fill-in if Mendenhall is injured again?

Adam Vinatieri

Soon after making it back to the field just in time for the season, Adam Vinatieri is back out. If you don't think that the knee problem and the hip surgery are related, you haven't been reading this column very long. The extra force taken by his knees after the adjustment in rushing back from hip surgery is a classic cascade. Now Vinatieri is not just out, he's out a while. The Colts will be able to sign another kicker, maybe even one that can handle kickoffs. Add in the cost, the upcoming uncapped year, and Vinatieri may or may not have much to come back to for the Colts. The Colts do have some loyalty to their players, so even if the replacement is solid, Vinatieri should have a job to come back to and a playoff game to win or lose with his kicks. Expect him back around Week 10.

Bumps and Bruises

The story on how James Davis was injured is just sickening. Hopefully the surgery James Andrews does to fix his labrum will allow him to come back healthy ... Mike Bell is healthy coming off the bye, meaning the Saints will have all three of their running backs available for the first time this year ... Expect Anthony Gonzalez to be back in practice next week, as the Colts gear up after their bye. His chances of playing in Week 7 are still in question ... Jerricho Cotchery's hamstring is still a "major issue," according to sources. Braylon Edwards will be more comfortable with the playbook this week, meaning Cotchery might not need to be pushed like he was last week ... Chaz Schilens is expected to return this week, though his role remains unclear. Plus, he's on the Raiders ... Nate Burleson's back injury is said to be minor, but coming up on a great matchup with a healthy Matt Hasselbeck means even a slightly reduced role could hurt his fantasy value ... "Violated team itinerary" is modern NFL-speak for "missed bed check" ... Kawika Mitchell hits the IR after major knee surgery. He's as done as the Bills ... Chris Samuels is out for next week after a stinger. That's usually not serious, but Samuels has known since college that he had spinal stenosis, a narrowing of the spinal tunnel. The combination isn't good, but it's normally not career-threatening. Samuels would be more likely walking away than being forced out if this costs him more than a couple weeks. Stingers are serious, especially in accumulation, but not this serious ...

One exciting last note: The Carroll Guide to Sports Injuries is in final phases of editing before publication. We hope to have it ready for order in the next two weeks. Look for that soon on FO.

Posted by: Will Carroll on 15 Oct 2009

21 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2009, 1:08am by Sifter

Comments

1
by Israel P. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 1:46pm

When was this written? No Aaron Smith?

2
by Boston Dan :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 1:49pm

Sims-Walker got benched for leaving the hotel to go out and get laid...

So even though I left 12 fantasy points on the bench, by not monitoring rotoworld and failing to replace him in my lineup with Braylon Edwards, I can't really fault Mr. Sims.

15
by BucNasty :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 7:20pm

Ever go to the team's hotel before an away game? Believe me, there's no reason to leave.

3
by witless chum :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 1:52pm

Well, I realize this is Lions' quarterbacking we're talking about, but Daunte fumbled at least three snaps, threw one of the most ridiculous interceptions ever, took a terrible grounding penalty and got sacked three straight times with a potential tying TD and 2-point conversion drive at the Steelers 15. He did a few good things, too, but he looked much worse than his preseason performances would suggest. Maybe that was all due to facing Dick LeBeau's blitzing and he'll look a lot better if he gets the start versus the Pack.

Megatron had an ace bandage-looking thing wrapped around his knee on the sidelines Sunday. I know Schwartz likes to play injury report games, but I don't think a fake knee wrap is likely.

10
by tomdrees :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:53pm

Let's all take a moment to reflect on how bad that interception was. It was a fumble AND a sack AND an interception, all in one.

4
by JMM* (not verified) :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 1:54pm

Causation, correlation, curse or a curious collection of events?

Cinci won the division in '05. TJ Housh disrespected the Terrible Towel. Cinci gets bounced round 1 of playoffs and has two poor seasons. In '08 Titans have best record. L White disrespects the Towel. TJ signs with Seahawks. Cinci leads the division. Titans haven't won a game. Seahawk's start slow.

6
by Israel P. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:25pm

Seahawks will recover - as much as Seahawks can. TJ was not in their uniform when he stolped on The Towel.

7
by Israel P. (not verified) :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:26pm

That's "stomped."

8
by DrewTS (not verified) :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:38pm

Causation, unquestionably.

9
by Temo :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:41pm

The only disrespect of the towel around here is your insistence on capitalizing it.

5
by MJK :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 2:25pm

What about Matt Light? I was hoping for Will Carroll's insights on how bad that knee might be, since expecting the Patriots to tell us would be like expecting Rush Limbaugh to support Obama's health care plan. I know Light isn't a "skill" player, but his health is directly related to the Patriots passing game (once he went out against Denver, the passing game essentially vanished, and the one critical pass they did attempt ended up being what was functionally a game-ending strip-sack.)

11
by Will Carroll :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 3:57pm

On Smith and Light, I didn't have any additional info beyond what was public. My rule is that unless I have something to add to the discussion, I don't say anything. With Smith, once he hits IR, it's seldom an issue any more. He's gone for the year. With Light, it's just that the Pats are impossible to get better details out of.

19
by anotherpatsfan :: Fri, 10/16/2009 - 12:53pm

Buckhalter update? Thanks.

12
by Boston Dan :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 4:23pm

this afternoon:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/football/patriots/view/20091015matt_l...

Left tackle Matt Light just strolled right through the room, not using crutches, not walking with a cane, not holding himself up on the shoulders of trainers....He was a little ginger in his walk, and there was a slight limp.

***

and the update on Light from Tuesday:

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/news/story?id=4556353

New England Patriots offensive lineman Matt Light has no ligament damage in his knee or ankle, team sources told ESPN NFL Insider Adam Schefter, but his timetable for returning to the field is still uncertain.

Light, who injured his right knee in Sunday's Patriots loss to the Broncos, was seen using crutches Monday in the Patriots' locker room.

13
by fyo :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 5:54pm

Ban Helmets!

Something tells me that players would be more than a bit more careful with their heads if they had to play without helmets.

I wonder if concussions are a common problem in rugby?

14
by Whatev (not verified) :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 6:08pm

Rugby lacks the sort of line play where most head injuries actually occur, though. And the rules on tackling and such are much more restrictive.

16
by BucNasty :: Thu, 10/15/2009 - 7:26pm

That might work, especially on grass. But it would also alter the game too much.

21
by Sifter :: Sat, 10/17/2009 - 1:08am

Well I follow the rugby league here in Australia and there are quite a few times where there'll be an accidental headclash in a tackle (often between teammates) and one or both guys comes out groggy. Concussions aren't a 'media issue' here yet, but they could be if a high profile player was affected perhaps. It's much like the NFL though, players are lauded for their courage and guts in coming back to the game, rather than their common sense if they were to sit it out. Example?: (Unknown foreign sport alert disclaimer!!!) It was a couple of years ago in a State of Origin game, Dallas Johnson (a notorious tackling machine) went into one of the first tackles of the match and copped a huge knock, slumped to the ground after getting his head in the wrong position in a tackle (runners knee went straight into his head), ended up stumbling off like he was totally tanked. Shots of the dressing room showed him looking completely spaced out. But of course he came back on in the 2nd half, racked up plenty of tackles - might have even won Man of the Match, and was lauded as courageous, heroic blah blah. I personally thought he was stupid...

But players are tackling low far less than before (at least in league, union guys hit low a bit more often), due to the risk of a head knock with hips and knees and that would happen in the NFL if there was no helmet. Then your issue would be high tackling around the head.

Personally, I like the helmets as they let your linebackers and safeties 'off the leash' a bit. They just need to find helmets that aren't so HARD, yet still provide adequate protection.

17
by Todd S. :: Fri, 10/16/2009 - 8:38am

Now, explain to me why every QB isn't wearing one of these?

It's about padding. Most other QB's aren't interested in padding (knees or stats) like Manning is, so they don't wear one.

18
by Danny (not verified) :: Fri, 10/16/2009 - 11:19am

Will,
Has the story about James Davis been confirmed? The link you provided says only that the Browns have denied it and that the NFL is investigating the report.

20
by Seattleite (not verified) :: Fri, 10/16/2009 - 1:37pm

Wow, that was a hard hit on Ochocinco. He's lucky he didn't get stabbed to death.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options

CAPTCHA
To skip this, please log in.