Eli Manning and Tom Brady were nearly equal in value in the Super Bowl. One of them had to lose. What effect will that have on their legacies? Plus, the best players of Super Bowl XLVI and the game's DVOA ratings.
10 Sep 2009
by Will Carroll
Finally, we get to stop talking about practice. Practice, man. Not games. Practice. Oh wait, that was hoops -- where Allen Iverson went all Camus on us -- but it holds true for the interminable offseason and preseason football schedule. Hot days in "voluntary" workouts leading to hotter days in vacation meccas like Latrobe or Terre Haute. Hidden practices with Secret Service protection on who starts at QB. No injury information besides what guys like Adam Schefter and Jason La Canfora can dig up. Now we get to games ... and the gamesmanship of the Official Injury Report. Use it for what it is, and use this column for what it is -- a lie detector test for the NFL, and a guide to the injuries that will affect your favorite team and fantasy team just the same. My preseason is over so, like Adam Vinatieri, I'm ready to kick off (with about as much distance, honestly). Let's get to it!
Matt Cassel's knee isn't ready yet, but there's still time. He's going to be the most literal of gametime decisions, with the Ravens defense as much of a factor in Todd Haley's decision as Cassel's knee. Haley may have toyed with Cassel and Dwayne Bowe in camp for no apparent reason but has seemed to rejoin reality over the last ten days, realizing that the quarterback and wide receiver duo are his only real offensive weapons. Cassel must have near-100 percent mobility to avoid the Ravens rush. If he doesn't, Haley may just elect to send out Brodie Croyle as a burnt offering to Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata. Fantasy owners want to avoid Cassel whether he plays or not, but at this stage it appears that the Chiefs are leaning toward sitting him. That's a switch from earlier this week, so be ready if there's a flop to go with this flip.
He's fine. ... Really, he's fine. ... …. OK, look, if you won't just believe me, I'll spell it out for you: Brady's knee is no longer a concern, aside from the chance that something similar happens again and a slight reduction of straightline running skill. The shoulder might be a bit sore, but Brady's had a sore shoulder for most of his career, if we take the Pats at their word. Brady worked through all the routes on the normal passing tree early in the week and he's not going to get worse by the time the Pats take the field. Reports from practice through Wednesday have all been positive so I think Tom Brady will take the next step in his comeback Monday. Take the over.
Kyle Orton had a glove on during practice this week to protect the stitches that are still there, holding in the bone that popped through the skin when it was dislocated last week. Yes, it's as brutal as it sounds, but the team believes Orton will not only be able to play with the injury, but that he'll have no real deficit out there (aside from that beard). The team is hedging its bets a bit, giving Chris Simms a few more snaps than normal. Simms is dealing with a sprained ankle, so we have a question: Would Simms at 95 percent be the choice over Orton at 85-90 percent, as most observers believe him to be at with his finger injury? We'll never know, so the issue is Orton keeping the finger from re-injury, something his line and the gameplan will be tasked with.
Was this all part of a plan? Jonathan Stewart was back at practice for the Panthers this week and according to reports and observers, he looked pretty good. Stewart has missed most of the preseason with an Achilles injury, but he showed no issues with the types of activities that would most tax the Achilles: acceleration, bursts, and stops. He wasn't quite full speed or taking hard contact, but it's far above the level most expected. One observer called it the "rope a dope" strategy, not entirely without merit. The issue now is whether he'll end up on the Brian Westbrook plan, avoiding practice to get the rest and treatment that will keep his Achilles from popping. That is the worst case scenario, but one that's well understood. It might not reduce DeAngelo Williams's value in Week 1 and if you nabbed Mike Goodson late in one of your drafts, you're not going to get the payoff early.
"Riding the bike." For an injured player, it's never a good sign to be stuck on the sidelines, riding the bike to keep up conditioning. It's part of the NFL's culture to do it, though no one's ever given me a good explanation why it's done. Pierre Thomas found himself on the bike and not on the field Wednesday, with his knee not yet ready to get past an afternoon pedal. Worse, the Times-Picayune gave the odd detail that Thomas also has a "laceration on an unspecified part of his body." Ouch. It doesn't look as if Thomas will be ready for Week 1, leaving Mike Bell and Reggie Bush the pairing for the Lions game. Let's accept that this outing likely would be a stats padder and worth far more than most 1/16th losses for Thomas, but survivable for the Saints offense.
If Knowshon Moreno was a normal rookie in a normal situation, I'd say to write off Week 1. There's no reason for a team like the Broncos with other options to risk using Moreno and setting him back. Moreno is going to need more time to integrate into the offense after missing reps for most of the preseason. Still, it seems like Josh McDaniels wants to get him out there some, if only to get used to real game conditions. I think that the pattern that the Raiders tried with Darren McFadden might be in play here, where Moreno is intended to become a feature back if he earns it after starting as part of a committee. It's a smart plan that makes Moreno an upside play later this season. This week, we'll only get a preview.
About all we have to go on with Wes Welker is Tom Brady's statement that Welker and Randy Moss "won't be coming off the field much." Given that Welker practiced fully on Wednesday, it seems that he's going to be out there on Monday, wearing the old-style Patriot gear. If you're a long-time reader of this column, you know I hate unknowns as much as anything, so I'm still gnashing and rending over not knowing the real details Welker's week-long ailment. Rumors have suggested everything from a blown ACL to a hangnail but no one seems to have the slightest clue, even inside Foxboro. I'd adjust expectations down a bit, but being a Monday night game is both a positive and negative here. There's no good strategy aside from hoping that we don't get a big Belichick surprise on Monday.
Getting injured is not a good contract ploy. Granted, I'm no agent or even a very good negotiator, but I do know injuries. Anquan Boldin's lingering hamstring strain is holding on long enough to put his Week 1 availability in real question. He's been out three weeks, didn't practice on Wednesday ... but there's some whispers that Boldin will be in the lineup when the team takes the field. Boldin's slow healing on an injury consistently described as mild is odd, since Boldin's history -- especially last season -- has always trended to quick-healing. The information I have is that Boldin will play, will likely start, but will be limited in how much he's used and what he's asked to do. Look for shorter routes, especially ones that will let him run free to the sidelines so that he doesn't have to cut or stop too hard.
The Colts run defense is a bit different this year, with actual size on the front or at least on the inside of the front. The rest is pretty typical Colts defense and that means that the absence of Bob Sanders will be noticed. The human missile is still rehabbing from off-season knee surgery, and it hasn't gone well. The team sent Sanders to Dr. James Andrews a couple weeks back for a new rehab protocol but as yet there's no signs of progress for Sanders. The Colts didn't PUP Sanders, giving many the hope that he'll be back before Week 6. Fact is, the Colts aren't sure but are willing to play a man down if: A) they might get him back before then and B) it keeps the other teams guessing. This is almost exactly the tack Indianapolis took with Marvin Harrison in 2007, with the significant difference that Jim Caldwell will be much more flexible than Tony Dungy on the full practice restriction. I don't know when or even if Sanders will be back, but I do know that the Colts defense doesn't seem as strong without him.
Nate Washington and Lawrence Timmons are the only significant injuries for the Thursday night kickoff game ... Brian Westbrook? Healthy, so far. Ride him while you can ... Maurice Jones-Drew is having no problems with his shin ... Matt Schaub seemed to be moving well at Wednesday's practice. The ankle won't slow him much, if any ... A good source told me Wednesday that Carson Palmer isn't 100 percent but "he's close enough" ... Matt Ryan's dealing with the infamous FLS (flu like symptoms) but will be fine for the weekend ... Cadillac Williams isn't just healthy going into Week 1, there's indications that he could get the start. It's still a committee, but this is a pretty astonishing comeback ... Kevin Walter is very iffy for Week 1 with a sore hamstring ... Roy Williams is healthy enough right now to get the start. Productive? That's on him and Tony Romo ... If Bernard Berrian can't go deep, that makes him, what? ... Deion Branch has a hamstring injury that's come just as he got past his knee issues. The guy just can't stay healthy anymore ... LJ Smith isn't a great fantasy option anyway as a TE2, but he's worse if he's not out there. His hamstring injury has him unlikely to play in Week 1 ... There's a lot of pressure on B.J. Raji's ankles and right now, they're not holding up. Watch practice reports to see if he gets out there Thursday or Friday.
There's no more Twinjuries, but I will be on Twitter (@injuryexpert) trying to get some info out and taking some questions Sunday morning.
8 comments, Last at 10 Sep 2009, 4:58pm by Will Carroll
Comments
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
Thanks Will, great work as usual. Do you know what's up with Jerious Norwood's head/knee?
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
Norwood's back at practice and expected to play "normally."
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
TOMMIE HARRIS!!!
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
I thought the bike was for players who could play if they needed to, and it's a way to keep loose on the sideline.
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
During games, yes. During practice it's a "stay in shape, you slacker" device.
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
Is Berrian a definite go?
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
Not definite, but looking like he'll play. Question of what % and how they adjust.
Re: Black & Blue Report: September 10, 2009
Do you know what's goin on with Shawn Andrews of the Eagles? It looks like he has an injured back again and did not practice. He is on the injury report.
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