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Top 5 Total DVOA

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (52.0%)
  2. IND (33.1%)
  3. DAL (24.3%)
  4. JAC (23.7%)
  5. GB (21.2%)

Top 5 Offense

2007 FINAL

  1. NE (42.6%)
  2. IND (28.3%)
  3. JAC (20.7%)
  4. DAL (19.0%)
  5. GB (17.3%)

Top 5 Defense

2007 FINAL

  1. TEN (-13.4%)
  2. PIT (-12.3%)
  3. IND (-10.7%)
  4. TB (-10.2%)
  5. SD (-9.8%)

Top 5 Special Teams

2007 FINAL

  1. CHI (9.3%)
  2. CLE (6.9%)
  3. HOU (5.7%)
  4. SF (4.5%)
  5. SD (4.5%)
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Basketball Prospectus

Baseball Prospectus

Draft Review Chat at BP.com

posted 4-29-2008 at 9:16 AM by Mike Tanier || Extra Points, FO Chat on BP.com, FO Goes Mainstream || 45 Comments

Mike Tanier reviews the draft in this chat over at BaseballProspectus.com.


Baseball Prospectus Chat Transcript

posted 4-24-2008 at 3:20 PM by Bill Barnwell || Extra Points, FO Chat on BP.com, FO Goes Mainstream || 25 Comments

The pre-draft chat on BP ended up having a LOT of Matt Ryan questions. Also featured is discussion of the Browns as well as probably the faintest of compliments I could pay Eli Manning.


FO on ESPN.com: Adding Star WR Rarely Improves Team

posted 4-23-2008 at 5:24 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 29 Comments

After the recent success of Terrell Owens and Randy Moss, teams are chomping at the bit to trade for Chad Johnson. But Owens and Moss aside, adding a star receiver doesn’t generally lead to significant improvement. Losing a star receiver, however, usually leads to decline.


FO on ESPN: College Stats Don’t Lie

posted 4-17-2008 at 8:34 AM by The Outsiders || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 55 Comments

This week’s ESPN column looks at the Lewin Career Forecast and what it says about the top four quarterback prospects in this year’s draft. (Don’t freak out if the system doesn’t seem fully explained; remember, ESPN articles have size constraints.)


FO on ESPN: Combine Stats Not Created Equal

posted 4-10-2008 at 9:53 AM by Bill Barnwell || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 54 Comments

This week’s FO feature on ESPN is me talking about running backs at the combine and what their performance there has to do with NFL success. Obviously, we’ll discuss this more in the book.


FO on ESPN: Odom Will Miss Playing Alongside Haynesworth

posted 4-3-2008 at 3:20 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 13 Comments

Here is part II of my look at quarterback hits. This time, I look at defenses, including a weird little trend involving Tennessee and what that might mean for the 2008 Bengals. Because I needed to focus this more on one story for ESPN, we cut out the table that would have shown the ten […]


FO on ESPN: Quarterback Abuse 2007

posted 3-27-2008 at 8:26 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 23 Comments

This week’s ESPN.com column looks at which quarterbacks were knocked to the ground most often in 2007, and which offenses protected quarterbacks the best when we count both sacks and hits. I know, I know, people will complain that this is yet another Patriots-centric article, but I was wracking my brain trying to figure out […]


FO on ESPN: Faneca Provides Upgrade to Jets’ Offensive Line

posted 3-20-2008 at 12:17 PM by Mike Tanier || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 24 Comments

This week’s FO column on ESPN.com explains how Alan Faneca upgrades the Jets all across the line, not just at left guard.


FO on ESPN: Saints’ Secondary Problems Should Be Priority

posted 3-12-2008 at 4:24 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 16 Comments

This week’s ESPN column talks about how Jonathan Vilma and Dan Morgan won’t do much to fix the New Orleans defense, even if both manage to actually stay healthy. Unfortunately, the WWL cut my joke about the Saints replacing the fleur-de-lis on Jason David’s helmet with the logo for “Smuckers.”


FO on ESPN: Favre’s Longevity, Durability Set Him Apart

posted 3-5-2008 at 12:11 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 45 Comments

Was Brett Favre the greatest quarterback in modern NFL history? As I detail in this week’s ESPN.com column, the answer depends on how much weight you put on peak performance vs. career value. Using the metrics from the “best quarterback seasons ever” article in PFP 2005, Favre doesn’t have a single season in the top […]


FO on ESPN: Free Agent WR Unimpressive

posted 2-28-2008 at 12:17 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 12 Comments

Let’s kickoff my weekly off-season column on ESPN.com with a look at similarity scores for some of this year’s free agent wide receivers: Bernard Berrian, D.J. Hackett, Donte’ Stallworth, Marty Booker, and not actually Randy Moss. Sorry about the brief post of this yesterday — ESPN had it up and then decided to hold it […]


Quick Reads: Super Bowl XLII

posted 2-4-2008 at 10:50 PM by Aaron Schatz || Extra Points, FO Goes Mainstream, Quick Reads || 206 Comments

This week’s Quick Reads — and the DVOA and VOA from Super Bowl XLII — are quite surprising. (Click to read more.)


FOX Rundown: Position-by-Position Breakdown

posted 2-1-2008 at 8:26 PM by Mike Tanier || FO Goes Mainstream, FOX Rundown || 13 Comments

In the final FOX rundown, we do that old classic, the position-by-position breakdown — Football Outsiders style.


FO Chat on BP.com

posted 2-1-2008 at 2:36 PM by Aaron Schatz || FO Goes Mainstream || 18 Comments

Here’s the transcript of today’s Super Bowl chat on BaseballProspectus.com… which didn’t actually have a lot of Super Bowl questions. Virtually zero.


Bill Simmons Podcast for Super Bowl XLII

posted 1-31-2008 at 1:41 PM by Aaron Schatz || FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 27 Comments

Here’s my final appearance on the Bill Simmons podcast, at least for the 2007 season. Giants fans will no doubt be ticked off, Rams fans will appreciate my appreciation, and everyone else will wonder why Rams fans should care about a Super Bowl XLII preview. Also this week: a superfluous Mike Tanier reference! To listen, […]


ESPN Numbers Crunching: Super Bowl XLII

posted 1-31-2008 at 1:10 PM by Aaron Schatz || FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 6 Comments

Here we go with the last ESPN stat notebook of the year. I had to cut at least half of the material I compiled, so believe me, there’s plenty left for the FO Super Bowl preview tomorrow. Consider this a nice little preview of the preview.


Many Moves on Road to Super Bowl

posted 1-26-2008 at 12:15 PM by Michael David Smith || FO Goes Mainstream, MDS Report || 5 Comments

A look at the rosters of the Giants and Patriots and how they were assembled. Did you know that the Giants will have just one guy on the field Super Bowl Sunday whom they drafted in the first round? The Patriots will have seven. The bulk of both rosters comes from free agency, but not […]


Giants One of Worst Teams to Reach Super Bowl

posted 1-25-2008 at 12:55 PM by Aaron Schatz || FO Goes Mainstream, FO on ESPN || 107 Comments

Sorry to sound like a broken record about this, but I don’t think people understand how weak the Giants are in comparison with past Super Bowl teams… and that includes their postseason run of greatness. One tidbit here that people probably have not heard: Out of the 10 teams that required three wins in order […]


Six To Watch on Super Bowl Sunday

posted 1-25-2008 at 9:53 AM by Doug Farrar || FO Goes Mainstream || 8 Comments

Here’s a piece from the New York Sun in which I name three slightly less-than-famous players from each Super Bowl team that could make a difference in the game. (Obviously, guys like Justin Tuck and Kevin Faulk aren’t exactly under the radar to a large percentage of the FO readership). Might the kicker-vs.-kicker battle be […]


Rundown: Giants Can’t Ignore Passing Game

posted 1-24-2008 at 3:48 PM by Mike Tanier || FO Goes Mainstream, FOX Rundown || 35 Comments

Part II of this week’s two-part Rundown breaks down the Giants offense against the Patriots defense, plus a note about special teams which reminds us that not all kickoffs are created equal.


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