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» OFI: Blowouts, Upsets, and Narrow Escapes

The College Football Playoff field narrowed on Saturday. Some teams got upset, some barely escaped an upset, and a few had big record-setting blowouts.

24 Sep 2013

Clutch Encounters: Week 3

by Scott Kacsmar

If you like blowouts, this weekend (and Monday night) was right up your alley. Rather than the record pace of close games from Weeks 1 and 2, we had just eight games with a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity in Week 3.

The three quarterbacks credited with leading a fourth-quarter comeback entered Week 3 with one career comeback win between them. It was that kind of strange week, which includes the first non-offensive game-winning score of the season in Cincinnati. With such a wild game dying for a long recap, let's get right to it.

Game of the Week

Green Bay Packers 30 at Cincinnati Bengals 34

Type: 4QC (Non-offensive game-winning score)
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 9 (30-21)
Win Probability (start of fourth quarter): 0.09

While expectations pointed towards a shootout, this was an odd game dominated by scoring runs.

First it was 14-0 Cincinnati after a great opening drive by the offense and a costly fumble by Green Bay's Jeremy Ross (released Monday) on the ensuing kickoff. After that, Cincinnati's offense played terribly with four giveaways, including a BenJarvus Green-Ellis fumble -- remember when he was praised for never fumbling? -- returned for a touchdown.

Green Bay actually led 16-14 at half-time despite the offense's struggles. The offense got on track in the third quarter with drives of 80 and 92 yards to complete a 30-0 scoring run. Seemingly having lost control of the game, the Bengals finally answered back on offense in just four plays. A.J. Green caught a 20-yard touchdown and Marvin Lewis decided to kick the extra point to make it 30-21. An argument could easily be made to go for two instead, but let's not go there. This was not your usual game.

The Packers had been protecting the ball, but that now started to unravel. Terence Newman's interception off Aaron Rodgers led to Mike Nugent missing on a 52-yard field goal as the game moved toward the fourth quarter.

With a first down at the Cincinnati 27-yard line, Rodgers got a little greedy and Leon Hall made him pay with another interception. This play marked the first time since the 2010 NFC Championship that Rodgers had thrown multiple interceptions in a game, and it was a big one.

From there, Andy Dalton led a 95-yard touchdown drive featuring several chunk plays. Marvin Jones caught a 12-yard touchdown, but Nugent's extra point was blocked. That kept it at 30-27.

Green Bay had a lot of time left to burn (10:49), but it did produce a long drive. After taking a timeout, Rodgers was sacked, knocking the Packers out of field goal range and setting up a big third-and-12. Randall Cobb got what he could on the short pass, but a good challenge by Lewis put him inches short and set up fourth-and-1.

With the ball at the Cincinnati 30-yard line, it's hard to say you can trust Mason Crosby for a 47-yard field goal here. Gee, think maybe letting your quarterback, who is 22 of 26 (84.6 percent) on these short-yardage runs in his career, run the sneak would be a good call?

Rookie running back Johnathan Franklin got the call instead. He fumbled the ball at the line. It was recovered by Reggie Nelson, who put a nice spin move on Rodgers, but he too fumbled. Newman was there to pick up the ball and return it 58 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 3:47 left. Just a stunning play and a very questionable play call.

That concluded the third and final run of the game, which was 20-0 Cincinnati.

So, at this point, did you have high expectations for Rodgers to lead the game-winning touchdown drive? Forget the past history for a second. This was one of his worst games and the Packers were missing Jermichael Finley after an early concussion. They were down on running backs with Ross playing in the backfield.

However, this was the rare situation for Green Bay where it was a four-point deficit and a time-consuming touchdown drive likely would win the game. With a lot riding on this drive, let's review what happened.

Short passes were the key this time. It cannot be overstated how good Jordy Nelson is at two things: making touch catches on the sideline and opening up space for his teammates to catch the ball (sometimes illegally). Here are the first two plays where Nelson's subtle blocking creates space for other Green Bay receivers to catch the ball. The FOX score is covering up the second play, but Nelson got a good block in with the ball in the air to help a seven-yard gain.

As the drive went on, Nelson got bolder with his blocks, certainly making contact early with the ball in the air and getting away with offensive pass interference. The second play to follow here was a big third-and-8 after Carlos Dunlap knocked down a pass at the line on second down. Nelson opens up space for Ross, who makes a nice move to gain enough for the first down.

After blocking, Nelson showed us that other talent with a great 18-yard catch on the right sideline. Maybe they should have taken more advantage of the outside receivers with Leon Hall out on this drive.

With the ball at the Cincinnati 25-yard line, I hated this next play. Rodgers pump faked, trying to set up the touchdown, but threw deep and out of bounds to James Jones near the end zone. Why go for the score now and leave Cincinnati 90 seconds to get at least a field goal? Managing the clock in the final minutes has never been more important. This was not a good play call to manage the situation.

Rodgers then came back to the short passes with a five-yard gain to Nelson. When trying to go to Cobb in the face of a six-man blitz, the pass was knocked down at the line by Dunlap. Each team called a timeout before the crucial fourth-and-5 play.

In an empty set, the Packers again had pick master Nelson doing his job, but Rodgers wanted to throw right to Jones. The pass never got there as left tackle David Bakhtiari's cut block on Michael Johnson failed and the pass was once again tipped. That's the ball game.

How unusual were the three passes batted down at the line on the final drive for Rodgers? He's had one full game with three such throws in the last five years, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The Packers fell to 1-2 while all of the historically bad fourth-quarter numbers return. Rodgers is 5-24 (.172) at comeback opportunities, which could include a 0-20 record against teams .500 or better should the 49ers and Bengals finish well.

The Packers are 9-26 (.257) when Rodgers has to lead them to the winning points in the fourth quarter or overtime, but 49-5 (.907) in all other games. That's the largest gap in NFL history, perfectly quantifying the front-running nature of the Packers in his reign.

While everyone wants the one-line explanation for why this is such a problem for Green Bay, it's never that simple. Everyone's at fault and each game is different with the only similarity being a loss in the end. This time it was more about the failures of an offense that finished the game with two interceptions, a fumble-six and a turnover on downs on the final four drives.

You can blame the quarterback, the coach or a rookie running back, but there was a lot that factored into the loss. Normally when the Packers go up 30-14, they do not get behind again. Forget the last drive; Rodgers cannot force that interception to Hall with the 30-21 lead. He has not had multiple interceptions in years, but that's what it took to get the Bengals back in it.

Cincinnati is the first team in NFL history to win after leading by at least 14 points and trailing by at least 16 points in the same game. Yeah, it was just that kind of day.

Technical note: Dalton does not get credited with a game-winning drive as this game did not have a game-winning drive. The winning points were a return touchdown, which has happened four times now in Cincinnati history. This is indisputable.

Dalton does not get a fourth-quarter comeback either as the offense never took the field in the fourth quarter in a one-score game. This game does show up in the "other game of note" table for Dalton as he receives some credit for the one touchdown drive in the fourth quarter when trailing 30-21. This game does not get counted as an opportunity for either stat for Dalton given the Bengals never had possession in the fourth quarter with the game tied or down by one score. This is subject to change.

Not subject to change: another failed game-winning drive for the Packers.

Clutch Encounters of the Winning Kind

San Diego Chargers 17 at Tennessee Titans 20

Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 7 (17-10)
Win Probability (GWD): 0.20
Quarterback: Jake Locker (1-4 at 4QC and 2-4 overall 4QC/GWD record)

These two semi-surprise teams in the AFC have played nothing but close games in 2013. Sunday would be the tightest yet for 60 minutes (and then some). San Diego took a 17-10 lead into the fourth quarter, but failed to score on its final three drives.

Tennessee chipped away with a field goal drive, kept alive by a 17-yard pass to Nate Washington on fourth-and-3. The Chargers were bleeding the clock, but a huge holding penalty on Rich Ohrnberger stalled the drive. Not even giving Philip Rivers a chance on third-and-9, San Diego ran the ball for just four yards.

After a penalty on the punt, Jake Locker was faced with a difficult situation to earn his first fourth-quarter comeback win: go 94 yards in 2:05 without a timeout. He did just lead a 99-yard go-ahead drive in Houston last week, but this was time sensitive. Like in Houston, he was again very good on the drive in what was overall one of his better games in the NFL (and possibly his best).

Following five straight completions to start the drive, Delanie Walker's dropped pass nearly ended things with an interception on the bounce, but to Walker's credit he hit the defender to cause the incompletion. From the San Diego 34-yard line, Locker had Damian Williams open in the end zone, but he overthrew him. Sticking with the deep ball, Locker gave Justin Hunter a chance in one-on-one coverage with Crezdon Butler and he won for his first career reception with 15 seconds left. That's some first impression for the rookie.

Rivers moved the ball to his own 43-yard line with two seconds left, down to one miracle. The lateral-filled play lasted forever, but what better way to end it than Rivers kicking the ball and walking off in disgust?

Classic San Diego and a great day for Locker and the Titans.

Detroit Lions 27 at Washington Redskins 20

Type: GWD
Win Probability (GWD): 0.53
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (8-15 at 4QC and 10-15 overall 4QC/GWD record)

We have good news and bad news, Washington fans. The good: you made it through each quarter with the game still being competitive. The bad: your defense is still awful and Robert Griffin III is not quite back yet. He threw an interception in the red zone in the second quarter that was so bad, well…

Tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter, Griffin scrambled into scoring range, but his headfirst dive ended with a fumble. Despite the fact he went down on his own, the ground can cause a fumble here, hence the Lions recovered the ball for a huge turnover. Watching the Victor Cruz play in Arizona (2011) and seeing that ruled as Cruz giving himself up, it's hard to see much difference from what Griffin did here. That's a tough one.

To make matters worse, it took two plays for Matthew Stafford to put the ball in field goal range after a 47-yard pass to a wide open Nate Burleson. David Akers made the 28-yard field goal, but 11:08 remained.

Griffin appeared to have a 57-yard touchdown pass to Aldrick Robinson, but it was taken away after review showed him failing to complete the process of the catch. The Redskins botched the next snap and would have to punt.

Detroit went into clock-killing mode early. Facing a fourth-and-1 at the Washington 12-yard line with 4:47 left, Jim Schwartz obliged me with the quarterback sneak. Of course Stafford converted. Even better, the Lions went for the dagger with a dangerous pass to Calvin Johnson that found its way in there for the touchdown. That's how you extend the lead. That's 27-17 with 3:56 left, and that's 0-3 for Washington.

The Redskins did get a field goal and the ball again, down 27-20, with 0:38 left. But Griffin threw his Hail Mary to the side with four Lions and one Redskin instead of the big group with the other Redskins, so of course the game ended with no catch.

For the first time ever, the Giants, Redskins and Steelers -- three of the league's old-school franchises -- are all 0-3.

Buffalo Bills 20 at New York Jets 27

Type: GWD
Win Probability (GWD): 0.51
Quarterback: Geno Smith (1-1 at 4QC and 2-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)

Expectations were not very high for these teams with rookie quarterbacks, but so far they have done enough to keep the games manageable for EJ Manuel and Geno Smith. Each team has three game-winning drive opportunities already.

This game probably should have never came down to one, but it did after the Bills rallied back from a 20-6 deficit in the third quarter to tie things 20-20 in the fourth after a 33-yard touchdown pass to Scott Chandler (Steve Johnson with the two-point catch). Part of the problem was penalties. For the game, the Jets had 20 penalties for 168 yards, and no, that's not a typo.

In a game that was filled with big plays, leave it to Santonio Holmes to break free from Justin Rogers on a 69-yard touchdown with 9:23 left. It is the eighth game-winning touchdown catch for Holmes. Smith was 16-of-29 for 331 yards.

Buffalo actually managed four more possessions in the game that would not end as both offenses went in the tank. Buffalo could not get past the Jets' 45-yard line on any of the drives. Manuel was just lobbing passes with no hope of being completed to a Buffalo receiver on third- and fourth-down plays.

Fittingly, the game ended with Manuel being credited with a spike as time expired at his own 10-yard line.

Smith is the first true rookie quarterback since 1960 to lead multiple game-winning drives in his team's first three games. No one saw that coming a few weeks ago, let alone back in April at the draft. It has not always been pretty, but Smith's average quarterback play is still an improvement over what the Jets had a year ago.

Cleveland Browns 31 at Minnesota Vikings 27

Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 3 (27-24)
Win Probability (GWD): 0.35
Quarterback: Brian Hoyer (1-1 at 4QC and 1-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)

Everyone expected the Browns to be packing it in for 2013, but they came out and scored 31 points behind Brian Hoyer. This team had 16 points in the first eight quarters this season. They had 24 by halftime. See, get rid of Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden, bring back Josh Gordon and problem solved.

Maybe the Vikings are just bad this year, which is what Football Outsiders (and myself personally) expected. But 0-3 with a home loss to Cleveland? That's low. Cleveland had gone 1-23 in its last 24 road games when allowing at least 20 points.

Cleveland brought out the fake punt and fake field goal (both successful), treating this like a Week 17 game for a 3-12 team. It led to a 24-14 lead, but Minnesota started intercepting Hoyer (three on the day) and eventually regained the lead, 27-24, early in the fourth quarter.

Both offenses began to stall at the level you would expect from them. Christian Ponder missed badly on a third-and-4 pass with 3:28 left. This is wide open to Greg Jennings for the first down for a good quarterback, but look where Ponder throws it.

Hoyer started at his own 45-yard line with 3:21 left, so this was a great setup to at least tie. The only other comeback opportunity in his career came in 2009 against Houston in Week 17 when the Patriots took Tom Brady out of the game late.

Already with 43 attempts on the day, Hoyer proceeded to throw it on 11 consecutive plays. He hit six of them with Gordon and tight end Jordan Cameron making the big plays. Gordon moved the ball to the Minnesota 7-yard line with 1:05 left. Now this is where many teams fail to get the winning touchdown and settle for the tie. Cleveland went for the win, but a misfire and a throwaway quickly brought up third-and-goal.

That's okay. Cameron on safety Harrison Smith is a mismatch and he came down with his third score of the day on a beautiful catch. Cleveland led 31-27.

Ponder found a way to run seven plays in 47 seconds, but those short completions are not much help when you need a touchdown. One Hail Mary from the Cleveland 34-yard line did not connect while the second never started as a sack by Desmond Bryant -- Cleveland's sixth of the day-- ended the game.

If the Browns aren't done in 2013, then the Vikings sure are.

Atlanta Falcons 23 at Miami Dolphins 27

Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 3 (23-20)
Win Probability (GWD): 0.32
Quarterback: Ryan Tannehill (2-5 at 4QC and 2-5 overall 4QC/GWD record)

For the fourth time in five games, the Atlanta Falcons blew a double-digit lead. The only time they did not (Week 2 vs. St. Louis), they saw a 24-3 lead whittled down to seven points.

Mike Smith's Falcons may have the reputation as a team that pulls out tight games late, but they are very good in the first quarter too. From 2008-12, the Falcons led the league in first-quarter scoring differential (2.52 points per game). On Sunday, it was 10-0 Atlanta after having the ball twice.

The lead grew to 20-10 in the third quarter, but the Dolphins responded well despite two turnovers by Ryan Tannehill. The game was tied at 20 to start the fourth quarter. Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling were very productive in place of Steven Jackson. Snelling picked up 34 yards on a catch that was all YAC. That put the ball at the Miami 15-yard line, but Ryan threw three straight incompletions, forcing Matt Bryant to kick a 33-yard field goal. Atlanta led 23-20 with 11:39 left.

Miami, just 1-5 at 4QC in 2012, went three-and-out. The clock read 10:14, but the Falcons moved it under five minutes as they often do. With Roddy White still trying to play through injury, Julio Jones had to step up again. He had two big catches for 43 yards on the drive, but on third-and-4 at the Miami 17-yard line, Ryan was under pressure and threw the ball away. That's when Bryant surprisingly blew the 35-yard kick wide right with 4:46 to play.

Now the Dolphins had plenty of time to drive for the winning touchdown and did indeed use up 13 plays and 4:08 to do it. On the drive Tannehill was 9-of-12 passing (two drops) for 69 yards. Down to the 1-yard-line, Tannehill used play-action to find tight end Dion Sims for the game-winning touchdown. Stephen Nicholas was no match in coverage.

Ryan is the master of the one-minute drill, but this was 80 yards for a touchdown and only one timeout with 38 seconds left. That's 0.05 in terms of win probability. It only took two plays before Ryan's floater was intercepted to clinch the win for Miami (3-0).

After winning the regular-season crown last year at 13-3, the Falcons are 1-2 with the undefeated Patriots coming to town. It's not time to panic, but losing these early leads needs to cease.

Clutch Encounters of the Losing Kind

Only two this week -- both eventually decided by at least 17 points -- but both results were a bit shocking.

Colts at 49ers: Chuck Pagano's Dream Performance Fuels 27-7 Win

What's this? What's this?
There's running everywhere
What's this?
There's incompletions in the air
What's this?
I can't believe my eyes
I must be dreaming
Wake up, Scott, this isn't real
What's this?

This game may have been the shocker of the young 2013 season. The Colts, who play just about everyone close, went into San Francisco as 10-point underdogs and came out with a 27-7 win -- their largest margin of victory since "Manning Bowl II" in 2010.

The Colts traded for Trent Richardson and somehow overnight they became the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, winning the ground battle (180 to 116) and having Andrew Luck throw it just 27 times for a career-low 164 yards.

It was coach Chuck Pagano's dream to build a team that won by playing smash-mouth offense and great defense. For the first time in years, the Colts looked like that team on Sunday, which is shocking given the high expectations for San Francisco after last week's ugly loss in Seattle.

Perhaps the 49ers, and Colin Kaepernick who struggled mightily against what was a suspect defense, are not who we thought they were. Kaepernick was just 2-of-8 passing at half-time and one of those completions was nearly intercepted. He was missing Vernon Davis and the receivers, outside of Anquan Boldin, are just not that impressive right now.

Richardson scored a one-yard touchdown on his first carry and the Colts led 10-7 at the half in an unexpected grind. San Francisco's only scoring drive of the day (a 91-yard march) featured the type of running attack we have come to expect from this offense, but the Colts shut things down afterwards. They beat the 49ers at their own game.

Reggie Wayne came alive late in the third quarter, but the Colts could not extend their 13-7 lead after Adam Vinatieri missed a 51-yard field goal with 12:41 to play. Even with great field position, the 49ers had their fourth three-and-out drive of the day after Kaepernick was sacked on third down. The Colts did a solid job of disguising who was rushing late in the play clock.

Ultimately, four rushers came at Kaepernick and the sack was split between Cory Redding and Robert Mathis. Now Indianapolis has really struggled to score points in the second half of games. They have been held to 0-7 points in 11 second halves since 2012. Heading into Week 3 that trailed only Jacksonville (12) for the most such games.

This was a big 80-yard drive to put the game away, but it would have stalled at midfield if not for a defensive holding call on third down. Darrius Heyward-Bey argued like hell for the flag, and surprisingly he was rewarded with a late one. At this point Ahmad Bradshaw took over with the best run of the season for the Colts, gaining 27 yards to put the ball in the red zone. Three plays later it was third-and-3 -- let it be known to Bill Polian this was not due to Richardson -- and Luck called his own number on a naked bootleg for a six-yard touchdown run with 4:13 left.

The Colts badly botched the math by kicking the extra point to take a 20-7 lead. You have to go for two there, but with the way the 49ers were playing offensively, it would not matter. Kaepernick was sacked again on third down and fumbled the ball. Bradshaw punched in an insurance touchdown for the 27-7 final.

Richardson had 13 carries for 35 yards while Bradshaw and Donald Brown combined for 22 carries for 120 yards. While I can easily start bashing the trade again, we should have plenty of opportunities to do so. For this week, the fact the Colts had an effective running game in San Francisco of all places is remarkable.

It also is very concerning for the 49ers, who slip to 1-2 and now must play the Rams in St. Louis on a short week with uncertainty surrounding Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis.

Bears at Steelers: Ben Roethlisberger Retires to Live Life as a Lumberjack

I have watched every single Pittsburgh game live, in its entirety, for over a decade now, but on Sunday night that streak ended. While "the standard" was part of the reason, I wanted to watch the series finale of Dexter without spoilers. With the way this game started, by 9 p.m. it did not seem like it would be even necessary to write about it here.

Well, the Steelers did finally find an offense capable of moving the ball and scoring points. Even with a pick-six and 24-3 deficit, they were still in the game by half-time. The defense started to tighten, the offense stopped turning the ball over (for the moment) and Antonio Brown had a career game (nine catches for 196 yards and two scores).

Just like that, the Bears were hanging on to a 27-20 lead to start the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh settled for a field goal after the pass rush did enough to disrupt two Ben Roethlisberger passes to Brown.

With the Bears' sputtering offense just 2-of-10 on third down, the Steelers looked to be in good position after forcing a third-and-10 situation. That's when Jay Cutler came alive with a 13-yard scramble, laying a big hit into Robert Golden at the end of the play. On third-and-12, Pittsburgh's blitz was easily picked up and Cutler went deep for Brandon Marshall, who made the 41-yard catch with Ike Taylor in coverage. On third-and-5, Cutler went to Earl Bennett in the corner of the end zone for a 17-yard touchdown. It had to be challenged, but Bennett did a great job of dragging his second foot for the catch.

But aren't the Steelers and Dick LeBeau so great on third-and-long? Mike Tirico said it was true.

Well, statistically no defense has allowed more first downs (147) or a higher conversion rate (24.8 percent) on third-and-10 or longer since 2004. So no, that's a myth. When you like giving up a 10-yard cushion to receivers, it would make sense you would struggle more than other teams in these situations.

Three huge plays by Chicago on third down -- they were the three longest plays of the night for Cutler -- and the Steelers were toast at 34-23 with 5:48 left. Roethlisberger's second lost fumble was returned for a touchdown to produce the 40-23 final (the extra point was blocked). That's the most points allowed by a Mike Tomlin team (107 games).

It is the first 0-3 start for Pittsburgh since 2000. The Steelers are minus-nine in turnover differential with a big, fat zero on the takeaway side. They are the sixth team to go theft-less through three games in NFL history. That's not good news.

NFL Teams with Zero Takeaways Thru 3 Games
Team Year Start Record Takeaways (Rank)
Broncos 1979 2-1 10-6 (Lost AFC-WC) 37 (17th)
Lions 1998 0-3 5-11 21 (25th)
Bengals 2002 0-3 2-14 20 (31st)
Rams 2004 1-2 8-8 (Lost NFC-DIV) 15 (31st)
Texans 2005 0-3 2-14 16 (32nd)
Steelers 2013 0-3 TBD -

The Bears are doing usual Bears things with 11 takeaways in three games, but they do need to create more normal stops as that well will dry up like last season. For now, they are 3-0 and leading the NFC North as the Marc Trestman hiring looks mighty fine.

Season Summary
Fourth-quarter comebacks: 18
Game-winning drives: 19
Games with 4QC opportunity: 33/48 (68.8 percent)
10+ point comeback wins (any point in the game): 6

Future Encounters: Can the Rams again prevent the 49ers from beating them on Thursday night? I will accept anything but a tie. New England at Atlanta sounds good, but not good enough to keep me from turning the channel to AMC for Breaking Bad at 9 p.m. That will be over before what hopefully is a highly competitive game between the two quarterbacks with the best game-winning drive records in NFL history. Big stakes in Bears at Lions, while Tony Romo ("NFC Choker Guy") will meet Philip Rivers ("AFC Choker Guy") in a game I can only hope makes it to this column next week.

Historic data on fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives can be found at Pro-Football-Reference. Win Probability comes from Advanced NFL Stats. Screen caps come from NFL Game Rewind.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 24 Sep 2013

19 comments, Last at 25 Sep 2013, 7:39pm by LionInAZ

Comments

1
by Ender (not verified) :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 1:20pm

Rodgers has only thrown 3 INT on the year and 2 of the 3 were perfectly thrown balls that his WR messed up on. The one INT that was his fault really did hurt in that game but everyone is going to throw some from time to time.

I'd hang that loss more on the fact they were down to their 4th string RB who fumbled than on Rodgers. It is actually pretty rare that I hang a game on Rodgers which is why I don't put much stock into those comments. The Packers team is not built to win close games, they can't hold teams on defense and they can't kill the clock on offense, it is as simple as that. Stick Rodgers on say the Steelers for his entire career and the stat would look completely different.

2
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 1:34pm

About half of Ben Roethlisberger's 4QC wins came after Pittsburgh's defense gave up the lead (one of the higher rates), but I think I'll save it for the massive data dump that'll be coming eventually.

12
by DA (not verified) :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 4:33pm

-When you say Pitt's Defense gave up the lead, does that mean:

1)Pitt is leading in the 4th, Opponents take lead, and then Ben leads game winning drive?

or

2)Pitt is trailing, Ben gives them the lead, Defense blows it, Ben gives Pitt the lead for a 2nd Time?

Option 2 is the far more difficult since it means Ben has to lead 2 Scoring Drives as opposed to just 1.
------

Also will be interesting to see game winning TD vs FG drives since getting into FG range is far easier, as well as how successful those kickers are in such situations.

13
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 5:06pm

Both options, and yes, option 2 more difficult and for that matter, rare.

Not sure if I did Ben, but I know I recently posted on Twitter some records about 4QC/GWD when the QB had to lead multiple go-ahead drives. Eli Manning had 7 or 8. Think Peyton had 5. Brady was in that range. Rodgers was 1-7 in such games.

You can already see the GWDs broken down by TD (run or QB play) vs. FG right here: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/quarterbacks-game-wi...

3
by Bobman :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:12pm

Scott, I think you missed a titling opportunity this week: Clutch Encounters of the Third Week.

Feel free to pelt me with rocks and garbage now.

6
by JIPanick :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:31pm

+1

7
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:36pm

That's actually a solid idea, but you know how it is. People search for Week 3, not "Third Week."

4
by Bobman :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:16pm

"The Colts badly botched the math by kicking the extra point to take a 20-7 lead. You have to go for two there..."

Agreed. Sigh.

10
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:58pm

I think Pagano was so excited that they had just got (essentially) the game clinching TD, that he stuck 1 finger up in the air out of habit. Understandable to be a little excited when you realize you're about to beat what was considered a top 5 team on the road. I'm sure he realized his mistake after the extra point was already through.

5
by Corey (not verified) :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:20pm

comeback stats are silly. Wouldn't most QBs have poor comeback stats? Wouldn't even the best comeback stat not even eclipse 50%? I would bet the best stat you'll find is only around 30 or 40%. Isn't that the nature of a comeback? I'd be curious to see what the numbers are for Peyton, Eli, Brees and Brady. There are so many variables in a comeback that it's unfair to put it all on the QB. I think clutch is a stupid stat.

8
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:50pm

The first time I get to use this response that's not in an e-mail.

Don't the best hitters in baseball only average .350?
Don't the best three-point shooters in the NBA come around 45-50% each year?

"Poor" should be a relative term. Cam Newton (2-16) and Aaron Rodgers (5-24) have poor records at 4QC. Matt Ryan (16-16) and Tom Brady (27-23) have elite records.

The average 4QC success rate has been consistently around .350 the last few years. Yes, it's hard to pull off, but so is sinking a three with any consistency.

You can see all active QB's records as of Week 1 here in the first table - http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2013/clutch-encounter...

9
by c0rrections (not verified) :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 2:51pm

They're fine so long as you remember the context involved and don't put too much weight in them. And you'd be wrong on your supposition. Here are the numbers for a series of active QBs (scroll down a bit until you find the table)

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2013/clutch-encounter...

11
by Richie1 (not verified) :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 3:34pm

Stopped reading most of the way through Packers-Bengals. Sending your running back into the line on 4th-and-1 is a bad call?? Going for a touchdown with 90 seconds left is a bad idea??? Good grief, you here sound like Skip Bayless' oh-so-slightly smarter long-lost twin.

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by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 6:44pm

Hi everyone. I wanted to see if I could address some of the concerns that readers have about Scott Kacsmar's fourth-quarter comeback research. I'm going to post this in the discussion thread for both Clutch Encounters and for the ESPN Aaron Rodgers article.

I really appreciate that readers have only the highest expectations for Football Outsiders. It's the biggest compliment that you can give us. Scott's new to Football Outsiders, and I actually think the issue here may be more one of writing style and less one of disagreement about what stats are and are not important. I've always noted that Football Outsiders "leads the league in couching our opinions," but that wasn't really the style at the website where Scott wrote previously. It's also not the easiest thing to do in a 1,000-word article for ESPN Insider. Scott also knows perfectly well that to give a quarterback's overall win-loss record in close games is to paint with a broad brush, but a lot of the specifics where he has noted why certain quarterbacks have certain records are in articles on other websites. Over time, I'm very confident that even those of you who are questioning these Q4C articles will appreciate that he's a fantastic writer and historian of the game.

To be honest with you, the readers: I personally feel that a quarterback's W-L record on Q4C is *usually* not going to be predictive. That doesn't mean these numbers are not interesting, and these numbers are going to be better when they are accurate. You have to understand that before Scott came along to do this research, the numbers given out by team PR departments about quarterback comebacks were total crap. (I'm looking at you, Broncos.)

Also, just because something generally regresses towards the mean, that does not mean it *always* regresses towards the mean. A good example is injuries: in general, team injuries tend to regress towards the mean each season but there's no doubt certain teams like the Patriots have a higher level of injuries year after year after year. That's not random chance, there's something going on there even if we don't quite know what it is yet. So in this case, I do think there may be something to the idea that we learn something about certain quarterbacks who are either very high or very low when it comes to fourth-quarter performance. (And yes, performance in late and close situations does not necessarily equal wins and losses in late and close situations.) For example, a number of mobile quarterbacks have a better record than you would expect in Q4C: Vince Young, for example, or He Who Will Not Be Named. Is there something to the idea that a mobile quarterback is more likely to make a big comeback because he can take advantage of a defensive breakdown with a big scramble? I'm not sure right now, but it is an interesting question.

I will also say going forward that while Scott's work on this subject has always revolved around quarterbacks, I'm personally much more interested in questions about head coaches. I do think there's something there, and I do think it is predictive. (You all know how I feel about Ron Rivera.) I've encouraged Scott to work more towards looking at what we can learn about certain coaches and their records in close games. Is there a lot of randomness that goes towards deciding close games? Absolutely. But that's all the more reason to criticize bad decision-making by head coaches. You never know where the luck is going go, so you better at least get the process right. Random chance isn't an excuse for coaches to make stupid-ass decisions.

Finally, there is something to Scott's complaints that he keeps trying to say it isn't all necessarily the quarterback's fault, but that didn't really get into the ESPN Insider piece, and a lot of the people who are criticizing his work here seem to be willfully ignoring anything Scott says about it being more of a team issue than a quarterback one.

With that in mind… Scott's analysis in the past has mainly revolved around fixing all the errors in people's conceptions of past Q4C. Going forward, however, we have all kinds of ideas for making this research even better. We want to look at go-ahead/tying drives where we can credit the QB even when his defense gave back the lead (as in Super Bowls XXXVIII and XLII). We want to look closer at coaches. We want to work on using DVOA or EPA to separate out the quarterback's performance from times when he has his defense or special teams to blame. And we want to do better statistical analysis to figure out at what point a coach or quarterback's record in Q4C becomes statistically significant. Unfortunately, we can't do that in the next 24 hours or even the next two weeks. We've got all kinds of in-season responsibilities. But we want to get to it.

Finally, in case I haven't made it clear, I think Aaron Rodgers is awesome. There isn't another player I would rather have on my team right now. I don't think that his past record necessarily indicates that he'll blow it the next time he gets the ball with two minutes left and the Packers down four. But I do admit that I'll be watching a little bit closer because of the research Scott has done, and if he fails again, I'll be looking for the pattern that might explain why Rodgers does have such a poor record in these opportunities.

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by kamiyu206 :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 8:42pm

Thanks for clearing up, Aaron.

But personally, sad to see a word 'choker' being used this much in FO. Am I the only one who remembers the player comment about Peyton Manning in 'Pro Football Prospectus 2007'?

Did FO changed its mind on the subject of using 'choker label' on athletes?

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by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 09/24/2013 - 8:53pm

I used "Choker" twice in the article and it was purely in jest when it comes to Romo/Rivers, who I have compared many many times in my past work.

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by YoHo (not verified) :: Wed, 09/25/2013 - 9:45am

Nice of you to write all of that, but honestly, it's probably over-defensive. Packers fans (and I am one) are just particularly active online. If a Packers player is nominated for air/ground player of the week, they generally win. Following week one this year, there was a time when 7 of PFT's top 10 "most-commented" posts were Packers-related. If you write something questioning Aaron Rodgers, the push back is going to be monumental. It doesn't necessarily mean you need to go out of your way to defend the process. But again, it's appreciated.

One thing I'd like to see analyzed would be to combine Matt Waldman's theories on task-oriented managers and creative managers with 4th quarter comebacks. I would be interested to see how different cohorts perform in "clutch" situations.

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by nat :: Wed, 09/25/2013 - 12:40pm

This isn't a Packer-fan thing. It's a shoddy-analysis thing.

"QB Game Winning Drives" are akin to "QB Wins on National TV" - a fun stat for narratives, but bogus for any serious use.

If there were any "there" there, it would be in GWD success rates. But it looks very much like those are non-predictive, or at least less predictive than just assuming that good teams are more likely to mount successful comebacks given the opportunity. And the sample sizes are so small that, even if they were predictive, you'd only have useful stats on a handful of QBs or coaches.

GWD could be a fun stat if treated as the fluff that it is. But treating it as a serious statistic undermines the FO brand in a big way. Aaron needed to step in to protect the brand, while still leaving Scott room to write something about games with fourth quarter comeback chances.

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by LionInAZ :: Wed, 09/25/2013 - 7:39pm

, 1. I saw all the blocked passes by the Bengals DL and immediately thought: is this another Packer OL failure? It was hard to tell what happened from the TV broadcast, but it is an OL responsibilty to keep a defender engaged so that he can't leap to block a pass -- as long as the OL doesn't cross the LOS.

2. As a Lions fan who has to endure constant complaints about how often Calvin Johnson pushes off, thank you for demonstrating how the Packers benefit from illegal downfield blocks.