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29 Oct 2013

Clutch Encounters: Week 8

by Scott Kacsmar

After one viewing of the Week 8 schedule, I expected we were going to be in for a pretty rough week as the standout game was Dallas at Detroit with not much else to offer.

Indeed, we had a season-low seven games with a comeback opportunity, including one decided by 24 points and two that did not qualify until the final 27 seconds. At least the week's best game on paper turned in one of the best finishes in recent memory.

Game of the Week

Dallas Cowboys 30 at Detroit Lions 31

Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 10 (27-17)
Win Probability (GWD): 0.09
Head Coach: Jim Schwartz (13-26 at 4QC and 15-26 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Matthew Stafford (10-16 at 4QC and 12-16 overall 4QC/GWD record)

As we looked at before the season, when Matthew Stafford leads a game-winning drive, it's usually a very dramatic scene. Sunday may have been the best yet as he passed the legendary Bobby Layne for the most fourth-quarter comeback wins (10) and game-winning drives (12) in team history.

For three quarters, it did not appear we would get a fantastic finish from this offensive slop-fest. The Lions trailed 10-7 at halftime. Their lone touchdown was a rarity: it was just the third time since 1999 an offense (no special-teams fakes) converted on fourth-and-2 (or longer) inside the red zone in the first quarter of a tied game, according to Pro-Football-Reference. Teams almost always take the points (a field goal) in that situation. Keep this in mind as we discuss what happened later.

Calvin Johnson's monster day (caught 14-of-16 targets for 329 yards) did have one blemish as he lost a fumble in the third quarter, which was Detroit's fourth giveaway of the game. However, the Cowboys only turned those gifts into 10 points, taking a 13-7 lead into the fourth quarter as Dez Bryant started to let his teammates hear about it on the sideline.

A Stafford fade pass fell incomplete, setting up a fourth-and-goal from the two. After going for it in this situation earlier, Jim Schwartz took the conservative route and kicked the field goal with 13:13 to play. One could easily argue going for it again, but at the time, it was a low-scoring game.

Apparently Bryant's outburst sparked something as Tony Romo found rookie Terrance Williams on a quick slant for a 60-yard touchdown. Detroit answered quickly with its own 80-yard touchdown drive as Joique Bell scored from one yard out. Romo squeezed a pass to Bryant on the sideline through a Cover-2 defense, and Louis Delmas' blown diving tackle attempt let Bryant rumble all the way to the house. Stafford answered with a 54-yard lob that Johnson plucked from the air between multiple Cowboys, and Reggie Bush finished the drive with a one-yard touchdown run.

Dallas had 3:27 to burn in a 27-24 game, but Detroit had all three timeouts. After picking up one first down via penalty, Dallas ran the ball twice to set up a third-and-12. At the time I liked giving Romo a chance to convert with Detroit having two timeouts left. In hindsight, this needed to be a run or Romo needed to hit the ground instead of throwing the ball away to stop the clock. As the Saints showed in New England two weeks ago, stopping the clock is a killer in these situations. Teams only convert on a third-and-12 pass about 24 percent of the time.

Stafford had 2:24 left at his own 33. In another move reminiscent of the Patriots-Saints game, Stafford did Detroit a favor by failing on this drive as quickly as possible. Stafford was sacked, then threw a six-yard pass to Brandon Pettigrew, who could not squeeze a ball on third-and-12. On fourth down, Stafford's pass was nearly intercepted on a rebound as the Lions went four-and-out.

Dallas had 1:24 left at the Detroit 31 with the Lions still having two timeouts. Doing the math, a quick three-down stop would give Detroit the ball back with barely 20 seconds to play. Romo could take three knees and a Dallas punt would put the Lions in tough field position, down 27-24. Three knees and a long (nearly 50 yards) field-goal attempt to go up 30-24 would leave Detroit with 20 seconds to go 80 yards for the touchdown.

You can also run the ball too, which Dallas did three times. Normally this would win the game, but the Cowboys made a grave error when Tyron Smith was penalized for holding on the third-down run. Even with Detroit obviously declining, the clock stops. Ouch.

Dan Bailey made the 44-yard field goal, but Stafford was going to have 62 seconds left at his own 20 to aggressively drive for the win. If the Cowboys missed the field goal, the odds of this game going to overtime go way up as Detroit likely would have gotten conservative once they reached field-goal range. Instead, the Lions played four-down desperation football the whole way, just like New England two weeks ago.

Bush started the drive with a no-gain catch, but did get out of bounds. Stafford went to Johnson for 17 yards, putting him over 300 for the day. This was followed by a quick spike. Next came the play of the drive.

You need a big chunk play on a drive like this and Stafford delivered with a 40-yard pass to Kris Durham. Not only was it pinpoint down the left sideline, dropping over Orlando Scandrick before any safety could come over, but it led Durham out of bounds to stop the clock. At the Dallas 23 with 33 seconds to play, this win was now possible.

Johnson went right up the seam for a 22-yard gain to the 1-yard line as safety Jakar Hamilton, just called up from the practice squad, again came over too late. Johnson was actually tackled four times inside the 3-yard line in the game, which has become a familiar scene to his fantasy owners.

Stafford hurried the offense to the line, motioning as if he was going to spike the ball. Instead, he surprised everyone with a brilliant play: he jumped into the pile on a quarterback sneak, extending the ball out to break the plane for the game-winning touchdown with 12 seconds left. Eat your heart out, Bart Starr.

I love the quarterback sneak, but what makes it even harder to stop in these situations is that the quarterback can just reach out with no fear of a fumble as the play is dead as soon as he breaks the plane. There was some risk as a stuff would possibly end the game without Detroit having enough time to run another play, but this was as high percentage as any play you could run.

Dallas tried a lateral play, but that was stopped uneventfully at the Dallas 39. Detroit (5-3) gets the big 31-30 win and had a franchise-record 623 yards of offense. You could not crucify Romo this time, but the failures of the Dallas offense throughout the game are hard to ignore.

Still, what people will remember is the final drive as it was one of the great ones. It's just the 20th time in my database (since 1981) a team took over in the final 75 seconds, trailing by at least four points and went on a game-winning touchdown drive:

Game-Winning Touchdown Drives in Last 75 Seconds, Down 4+ Points (Since 1981)
Date Team QB Scorer Oppt. Down Final Start End DL
11/22/1981 BUF Joe Ferguson Roland Hooks NE 17-13 W 20-17 0:35 0;05 73
9/19/1982 PHI Ron Jaworski Leroy Harris (RUN) at CLE 21-17 W 24-21 0:52 0:22 65
12/26/1982 SLC Neil Lomax Roy Green NYG 21-17 W 24-21 1:07 0:27 70
9/20/1987 SF Joe Montana Jerry Rice at CIN 26-20 W 27-26 0:02 0:00 25
11/11/1990 SEA Dave Krieg Paul Skansi at KC 16-10 W 17-16 0:48 0:00 66
11/3/1991 ATL Billy Joe Tolliver Michael Haynes SF 14-10 W 17-14 0:53 0:01 80
9/6/1992 CHI Jim Harbaugh Tom Waddle DET 24-20 W 27-24 1:05 0:01 74
9/20/1992 GB Brett Favre Kitrick Taylor CIN 23-17 W 24-23 1:07 0:13 92
8/31/1997 CIN Jeff Blake Carl Pickens ARI 21-16 W 24-21 1:10 0:38 63
9/8/1997 KC Elvis Grbac Andre Rison at OAK 27-22 W 28-27 0:58 0:03 80
11/22/1998 SD Craig Whelihan Charlie Jones KC 37-31 W 38-37 0:51 0:09 63
10/7/2001 ARI Jake Plummer MarTay Jenkins at PHI 20-14 W 21-20 1:09 0:09 74
12/8/2002 CLE Tim Couch Quincy Morgan at JAC 20-14 W 21-20 0:47 0:00 53
12/14/2008 SD Philip Rivers Vincent Jackson at KC 21-16 W 22-21 1:11 0:36 61
10/3/2010 BAL Joe Flacco T.J. Houshmandzadeh at PIT 14-10 W 17-14 1:08 0:32 40
11/21/2010 NYJ Mark Sanchez Santonio Holmes HOU 27-23 W 30-27 0:49 0:10 72
9/24/2012 SEA Russell Wilson Golden Tate GB 12-7 W 14-12 0:46 0:00 46
12/2/2012 IND Andrew Luck Donnie Avery at DET 33-28 W 35-33 1:07 0:00 75
10/13/2013 NE Tom Brady Kenbrell Thompkins NO 27-23 W 30-27 1:13 0:05 70
10/27/2013 DET Matthew Stafford Matthew Stafford (RUN) DAL 30-24 W 31-30 1:02 0:12 80

Note: Consider this more of a documented list than an inclusive one.

Twice in one month now? Not bad. Stafford's score was just the second rushing touchdown on the list as the rest were all passes. You may remember some of them well, including a few Hail Mary's. At 80 yards, this is tied for the second longest drive.

Stafford finished with 488 passing yards as Johnson had 329 receiving -- the second most in NFL history behind Flipper Anderson's 336-yard game in 1989. That game had its own great finish -- it actually would have ended in regulation if the Rams did not miss a 52-yard field goal. In overtime, Anderson added 40 yards, so had it not been for that missed field goal, Johnson would have the record right now.

For Stafford, this is the fourth time he has taken over in the final three minutes of a game and led his offense 80-plus yards for a game-winning touchdown. No other active quarterback has done it more than three times.

So his mechanics may forever bug the purists, but if you like drama, Stafford's a good watch. Of course it always helps when his freakish wide receiver has days like this.

Clutch Encounters of the Winning Kind

Washington Redskins 21 at Denver Broncos 45

Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 7 (21-14)
Win Probability (GWD): 0.63
Head Coach: John Fox (31-43 at 4QC and 40-48 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (40-45 at 4QC and 52-50 overall 4QC/GWD record)

Even in a game decided by 24 points, Peyton Manning engineered his record-tying 51st game-winning drive and became the first quarterback to lead 40 fourth-quarter comeback wins. While atypical for 34 minutes, this game's finish was quintessential 2012-13 Broncos: too many mistakes, but more great plays and a second-half surge.

The scoring bonanza took a few detours as these teams went into halftime in a 7-7 tie as Denver's offense was pinned inside its own 10 three times. When Manning lost a career-high fourth fumble on the season and threw a pick-six because Demaryius Thomas let DeAngelo Hall outmuscle him for the ball, the Redskins claimed a 21-7 lead.

Then the 38-0 run came.

One 75-yard march was backed by another for 83 yards, but Denver was stopped at the 1-yard line as the third quarter ended. Facing a fourth-and-goal, Denver made the obvious choice to go for it and Manning changed the formation to a bunch right, getting good pick action to free Joel Dreessen for the game-tying touchdown pass.

Washington went three-and-out in 27 seconds after three incompletions by Robert Griffin. A terrible 15-yard punt by veteran Sav Rocca gave Manning the ball at the Washington 35. It only took one play for a 35-yard running back screen to Knowshon Moreno to create the game-winning touchdown with 14:19 remaining.

On the ensuing drive, Von Miller registered his first sack of 2013 and forced Griffin to fumble the ball. The Denver defense put in arguably its finest performance of the season. The offense added a field goal for a 31-21 lead.

The rest of the game was a blur of Griffin sacks, big hits, and interceptions. When it was all over, Griffin was on the trainer's table as Kirk Cousins joined the parade with a pick-six to Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, providing the final seven points of a 45-21 scoreline. The whacky fourth quarter featured six interceptions and one fumble, and made Peyton Manning the first player to ever have three games with four or more touchdowns and three or more interceptions.

Denver outscored Washington 31-0 in the fourth quarter -- the fourth time since 1940 a team produced a 31-0 fourth quarter. Though rare, this is the ninth time a team won by at least 24 points while still needing a fourth-quarter comeback and/or game-winning drive. The Broncos now have the largest margin of victory by a team trailing by more than four points entering the fourth quarter:

Largest Margins of Victory with 4QC/GWD (Since 1940)
Rank Team QB Date Opp. 4Q Score Result MOV
1T Washington Sammy Baugh 11/14/1948 Detroit Down 21-19 W 46-21 25
1T Baltimore Johnny Unitas 12/16/1962 Minnesota Down 17-14 W 42-17 25
1T Green Bay Bart Starr 11/21/1965 at Minnesota Down 13-10 W 38-13 25
4T LA Rams Norm Van Brocklin 10/26/1952 Chicago Down 7-3 W 31-7 24
4T LA Chargers Jack Kemp 12/4/1960 at Oakland Down 17-14 W 41-17 24
4T Buffalo Joe Ferguson 11/26/1978 NY Giants Down 17-14 W 41-17 24
4T Tennessee Vince Young 11/15/2009 Buffalo Tied 17-17 W 41-17 24
4T New England Tom Brady 9/30/2012 at Buffalo Tied 21-21 W 52-28 24
4T Denver Peyton Manning 10/27/2013 Washington Down 21-14 W 45-21 24
10 Green Bay Aaron Rodgers 9/14/2008 at Detroit Down 25-24 W 48-25 23
11 Kansas City Len Dawson 11/2/1969 at Buffalo Down 7-6 W 29-7 22

Denver's mastery of the second half is nothing new. Last season, the 2012 Broncos set a NFL record with 299 points after halftime. I have been charting their 2013 progress as they now have the most points after halftime through eight games of a season with 208 points.

Most Points Scored in Second Half (2HPts) Thru X Games, Since 1940
Games Team Year 2HPts Games Team Year 2HPts
1 Falcons 1973 38 9 Rams 1950 213
2 Broncos 2013 66 10 Rams 1950 240
3 Cowboys 2007 86 11 Rams 1950 254
4 Cowboys 2007 107 12 Rams 1950 289
Broncos 2013 13 Rams 1950 289
5 Broncos 2013 130 14 Rams 1950 289
6 Broncos 2013 151 15 Rams 1950 289
7 Rams 1950 171 16 Broncos 2012 299
8 Broncos 2013 208 Note: 1950 Rams played 12-game season

Clutch Encounters of the Losing Kind

Steelers at Raiders: The Black Hole Is Pittsburgh's Twilight Zone

Since 2003, the Oakland Raiders are 31-53 (.369) at home, but 3-0 against the Pittsburgh Steelers -- their best record against any team in that time. These trips from Pittsburgh to Oakland's black hole of losing might as well be a trip to The Twilight Zone for the Steelers, who have capped off disappointing seasons with mind-numbing losses out west.

The first play from scrimmage set the tone as Terrelle Pryor, on a simple zone-read option, kept the ball for a 93-yard touchdown run -- the longest run in NFL history by a quarterback.

Afterwards, it was less about what Oakland did offensively, which wasn't much, and more about the plethora of mistakes the 2013 Steelers continue to make in all phases of the game. One area that appeared solid was kicking, but one week after I praised Shaun Suisham for the first time in my life, he missed a 34-yard field goal before halftime and a 32-yard field goal in the third quarter -- the latter meant a drive consuming 9:11 of clock came up empty.

As Pittsburgh's kicker, Suisham was 43-of-46 (93.5 percent) on field goals under 40 yards coming into the game.

The misses would actually matter as Ben Roethlisberger once again tried to lead a rally from a 21-3 deficit in the fourth quarter. He threw a poor interception on a deep ball to Emmanuel Sanders, but got the ball back in great field position after a turnover and extended a play under pressure for a touchdown to Sanders.

The Raiders went three-and-out, but so did the Steelers after Antonio Brown dropped a would-be 25-yard gain on third-and-15. He made up for it with a 44-yard punt return, but three plays later Brown again sabotaged the comeback by deflecting an interception into the waiting arms of Tracy Porter.

Pittsburgh remained alive with 4:22 left after another three-and-out from Oakland. Starting at his own 17, Roethlisberger moved the offense down the field well, but there could have been more urgency in a 21-10 game. The killer moment of this drive came when Roethlisberger used a timeout with 1:43 to go at the Oakland 12. At that point, you are better off taking the five-yard penalty as every timeout is precious.

Le'Veon Bell eventually scored on a two-yard touchdown run and Sanders showed great effort on a two-point conversion scramble after getting the ball on a trick play. It was 21-18, but after Oakland recovered the onside kick, that lost timeout loomed large. Pittsburgh stopped Darren McFadden on three consecutive runs, but the Steelers' final attempt started on their own 3 with 18 seconds left to get into field-goal range or complete a Hail Mary.

It's one of two comeback attempts this week that featured a 0.01 Win Probability. Roethlisberger's meaningless 33-yard completion to Sanders ended the game and probably ended another Pittsburgh season.

Browns at Chiefs: Another Rally Turns to Dust in the Wind

Kansas City's games are starting to follow a predictable pattern: slow starts where the offense settles for field goals, the opponent stays within one score in the fourth quarter, but the defense shuts the door, typically with a sack.

Expectations were low with the Cleveland Browns starting their 20th different quarterback since 1999, Jason Campbell, but it's not like he can be much worse than Brandon Weeden. Campbell actually finished with very respectable numbers against the No. 1 pass defense: 22-of-36 for 293 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and one sack. He did have nine failed completions.

The Browns trailed 13-0 early as Alex Smith threw his first touchdown since Week 4, but at one point Campbell led the Browns to 17 points on three drives. Smith felt the pressure this week with Cleveland registering six sacks on the day, including two on one drive in the fourth quarter with the Chiefs leading 20-17.

With 11:43 left, Campbell went deep for Jordan Cameron and the big tight end came down with the 37-yard reception. Willis McGahee's nine-yard run was called back for a huge holding penalty on Joe Thomas. There may have only been one Kansas City sack this week, but it was crucial as Justin Houston forced the Browns into a second-and-29 situation. One failed draw and one failed screen later, and Cleveland was punting again.

The Chiefs went three-and-out, but Davone Bess continued his rough day catching footballs by muffing the punt return. The Chiefs failed to score as Smith again went down on a sack, but it used up more clock and the Browns were out of timeouts.

Campbell, 7-26 (.212) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, had 3:55 left at his own 16. He converted a third-and-9 with an 11-yard pass to Cameron to prevent another three-and-out. Two plays later Thomas committed his second holding penalty of the quarter as he grabbed Tamba Hali, forcing Campbell to scramble for a negated 13 yards. Hali was offsides on the next play, negating another Campbell sack. On second-and-15, Campbell scrambled for eight yards as pressure was coming on every play now.

Campbell was too low for Bess on third down, bringing up a fourth-and-7 at the Cleveland 31 with 2:12 left. Campbell scrambled to his right before throwing back over the middle to a sliding Bess, who dropped the difficult pass. That's a must-have catch that did not require a super-human effort to make with the game on the line.

The Chiefs ran Jamaal Charles three times and kicked a field goal. Campbell had 17 seconds left and 80 yards to go. Josh Gordon made a nine-yard grab, but the offense could not get another play off in time. For the fourth straight week, the Chiefs thwarted a fourth-quarter comeback attempt.

Giants at Eagles: Remember When Chip Kelly Revolutionized the NFL for Two Quarters?

It is my duty to cover every comeback attempt, but this game was a farce and only a fluke allowed for Matt Barkley, subbing for the once-again injured Michael Vick, to have the faintest of chances in the final minute. The Giants built a 12-0 lead on four field goals as Eli Manning threw third-down incompletions, but not any interceptions. That lead extended to 15-0 in the fourth quarter where it looked like it would hold, but a bad snap on a punt sailed over Steve Weatherford's head and his feeble attempt to recover led to a touchdown for the Eagles with 4:11 left.

The Giants recovered an onside kick and burned clock by producing one first down. By the time the Eagles got the ball back, Barkley had 27 seconds left at his own 16 in a 15-7 game (Win Probability: 0.01). It only took two plays before Barkley's game-ending interception -- the rookie's fifth turnover in just 10 drives. That makes 10 straight losses at home for the Eagles and just three offensive points in the last eight quarters at home.

The offensive revolution will be put on hold as apparently it's not as fun to count how many plays a team runs when it can barely complete a forward pass.

Dolphins at Patriots: Even the 2012 Cardinals Won in New England, Miami

Seemingly every season a team with few expectations has a winning September before quickly fading into obscurity as their flaws become too difficult to conceal. The Arizona Cardinals were that team last year. In 2013 it looks like the Miami Dolphins, once 3-0, have assumed the role, dropping a fourth straight game.

Things started well with a balanced Miami attack producing a 17-3 halftime lead and the defense held Tom Brady and his swollen hand to 25 passing yards. Driving into the red zone with a chance to bury the Patriots, a third-down sack pushed a potential Caleb Sturgis' kick to 46 yards. It hit the right upright, giving the Patriots new life and sending the Dolphins into a downward spiral. They were held scoreless on all seven second-half possessions.

The New England offense immediately answered with a 64-yard touchdown drive, forced a sack-strip off Ryan Tannehill and scored another touchdown to tie the game less than four minutes after the missed field goal. Stephen Gostkowski put the Patriots ahead for good with a 48-yard field goal with eight seconds left in the third quarter, so semantics (and a timeout) took away the game-winning drive from Brady's growing collection.

The Dolphins were bit by a series of unfortunate events in the fourth quarter. Tannehill drove to the New England 46, but his inaccurate pass was intercepted by Marquice Cole after being set up on a volleyball-like tip by Devin McCourty.

Brady was sacked from behind and fumbled the ball. New England recovered, but it would have set up a third-and-29 situation out of scoring range. Olivier Vernon was penalized 10 yards for an illegal bat of the ball, favorably giving the Patriots a first down at the Miami 13. That's a 32-yard difference in field position.

Four plays later Stevan Ridley plowed in for the touchdown and the Patriots led 27-17. It was very similar to a 2011 loss Miami suffered in New England after leading 17-0 at halftime. This time, though, the Dolphins failed to score again after Sturgis' 39-yard field goal was blocked with 2:42 left and Tannehill threw a desperation interception on fourth-and-24 with 45 seconds on the clock.

Despite Brady passing for 116 yards and the offense again having a miserable third-down performance (2-of-10), the Patriots survived another scare and have distanced themselves in the AFC East at 6-2.

Seahawks at Rams: DangeRussell Wilson

The Rams surprisingly gave Seattle all it could handle in a game that was largely forgettable minus the final drive. Russell Wilson was sacked seven times and the offense's only real contribution was an 80-yard touchdown pass to Golden Tate, producing a 14-6 lead late in the third quarter.

On the ensuing drive a sequence followed that summed up the quality of this one:

  • A lengthy challenge re-spotted the ball after an incompletion was changed to a sack of Kellen Clemens.
  • The Seahawks were flagged five yards for encroachment.
  • A St. Louis fan with a weird accent moaned "I can throw for 52 yards" in reference to Clemens' night.
  • The Rams were penalized for a false start, bringing it back to third-and-16.
  • A sack of Clemens was wiped out by defensive holding on Brandon Browner for a little tug he gets away with on practically every other play.

This drive crept into the fourth quarter and St. Louis settled for a field goal after Clemens was sacked on third down. Seattle went three-and-out after a third-down drop by Jermaine Kearse. The Rams lined up for a 50-yard field-goal attempt, but Greg Zuerlein was wide right with 8:28 left. Chris Long ended Seattle's final drive with his third sack of the night.

Clemens had 5:42 left to drive 97 yards for the win. Blasphemy, you say? It almost happened thanks to a strong running game that produced 35 carries for 189 yards on the night. Clemens did complete his first three passes on the drive for 47 yards as the Rams wisely took their time.

A run by Daryl Richardson set up a first-and-goal at the six as the clock ticked under a minute. Clemens threw incomplete to Austin Pettis. Richardson ran for four yards and Jeff Fisher used his first timeout. Clemens threw incomplete, but the Seahawks were offsides, putting the ball at the one-yard line. With two timeouts, I am running the ball here. The Rams have zero rushing touchdowns in 2013, but let's remember the quarterback was Kellen Clemens (15-of-31 for 158 yards and two interceptions on the night).

Richardson was stuffed for no gain. I would have called timeout immediately as any penalty likely would result in a first down and multiple plays. Instead, Fisher let the clock go down to four seconds, putting the game on one last fourth-down play. A defensive penalty would reward an untimed down, but there was enough time to get multiple plays should there be a fourth-down penalty. It's not like this putrid Seattle offense was going to do anything with 10 or 15 seconds left.

What do you call on the last play? The Seahawks brought pressure and Clemens threw a fade that was nowhere close to the target (Brian Quick). Game over.

That's disheartening to allow a bad offense to drive 96 yards, but at least it wasn't 97. Seattle's a NFC-best 7-1 with only three road games remaining.

Season Summary
Fourth-quarter comebacks: 31
Game-winning drives: 39
Games with 4QC opportunity: 74/120 (61.7 percent)
10+ point comeback wins (any point in the game): 17

Historic data on fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives can be found at Pro-Football-Reference. Win Probability comes from Advanced NFL Stats. Screen caps come from NFL Game Rewind.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 29 Oct 2013

18 comments, Last at 31 Oct 2013, 10:17am by JoeyHarringtonsPiano

Comments

5
by hscer :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:46pm

From the chart at the end of the Detroit-Dallas recap:

That 9/20/87 game in which the winning drive began with 0:02 left is the one where head coach Sam Wyche called for Cincinnati to kneel on fourth down, but they didn't run out the clock first. I love that. You wonder if a coach gets to keep his job if that happens today, but Cincinnati made the Super Bowl the next season...where they got to lose to San Francisco again.

Here's the last play: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BRwL1X73fr0&t=1m20s

---

Also, re: WAS-DEN, not only was it pick action that got Dreessen open on 4th down...after all the (com)motion, there were three pass receivers to that side and only two pass defenders. I called that one a touchdown before the snap.

9
by AnonymousDey (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 5:01pm

it was a series of blunders by Wyche that you got a bit wrong.

On first, second and third downs the Bengals kneeled and ran clock rather than running plays. Then on fourth down with the clock running they took a delay of game penalty, then decided to run a handoff play that resulted in James Brooks being tackled behind the line with the 2 seconds left for Joe Montana to win the game.

Had they simply run regular offensive plays on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down they would have won the game barring a fumble of Miracle at Meadowlands proportions.

Or they could have punted.

Or they could have taken an intentional safety that ran out the clock.

10
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 5:26pm

Wow. That is mind-numbingly bad game management. Even Ron Rivera would laugh at that. Wyche was lucky that there was no internet/twitter back then. Was their punter injured or something? Why not just have Brooks run backwards and then go down?

11
by Bright Blue Shorts :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 5:44pm

I have some longer footage of that game-ending somewhere ... I believe Bill Walsh later said that the key to the TD was that they sent multiple WRs to the left for the Hail Mary leaving Jerry Rice single-covered over on the rightside hence why he has a relatively easy catch for the gamewinner in that footage.

1
by Perfundle :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:39pm

"I would have called timeout immediately as any penalty likely would result in a first down and multiple plays. Instead, Fisher let the clock go down to four seconds, putting the game on one last fourth-down play."

Huh. And I was thinking that it was Carroll who should've called timeout, to allow his offense to have a chance in case St. Louis got the touchdown, but your idea sounds far more plausible. I wonder if Carroll had thought the same thing.

13
by Scott Kacsmar :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 1:31am

I can see your strategy too. Both coaches should have been thinking about saving some time. The situation you want to set up the last play for is a field goal. I don't believe in the "save some time and/or kick on third down in case of a bad snap/hold" strategy. Those are so rare and if one happens, you don't deserve to win anyway.

But this was not a FG situation at all. I also thought Rams might try a QB draw, but probably good thing they didn't with the quick pressure on that last play.

15
by Insancipitory :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 9:42am

I just thought it was a very aggressive strategy by both coaches. The Rams knew the Seahawks were going to go cover 0, Seahawks didn't care, were doing it anyway, and both teams were going to decide the game on one last play. They both went all in, showed their cards, waited for the river. I think it was a better calculated risk on Carroll's part, because if the Seahawks take over on downs on their own 1, terrible things can still happen to result in a Rams' score.

17
by Bjorn_ (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 5:39am

The best endgame scenario for this game (from a neutral fans perspective, at least from this neutral fans perspective)whould have been as follows:

STL takes timeout imidatly after the third down play.
Run on 4th down beeing inches short leading to a turnover on downs.
SEA (beeing to close to their goalline to have room for a kneeldown) runing a play for a loss and a safety with a few seconds left.
SEA kicking short to avoid a return, STL fair catch.
STL Fair catch kick FG to tie the game.
(Ideally an NFL record 70 yards.)

2
by Rikki (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:40pm

Oakland is Pittsburgh's angstgegner.

3
by Scott Kacsmar :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:44pm

Note: If anyone can recall a great GW TD drive that may have happened in the last 75 seconds that is missing from the table, speak up. I can't stress how old game books can be inaccurate in regards to this stuff, and neither myself or FO has every game book going back to 1981 so that's why I said the list is more documented than inclusive.

7
by Bobman :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:02pm

My initial thought was the "fourth and two" Colts/Pats game in 2009, but after checking it I see the turnover on downs apparently happened right at the 2 minute warning. The drive took 1:47 and left 13 seconds on the clock. Way beyond the 75 seconds threshold.

4
by Perfundle :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 2:45pm

"A lengthy challenge re-spotted the ball after an incompletion was changed to a sack of Kellen Clemens."

Don't forget Steratore's oratory on the finer points of the NFL rulebook (I thought only Hochuli did this), and subsequent correction on the appropriate down.

6
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 3:05pm

That list of GW drives with less than 75 secs left is fascinating.

It contains names such as Joe Montana, Brett Favre, Philip Rivers, Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck and Tom Brady, which you kind of expect. But it also contains names such as Billy Joe Tolliver, Craig Whelihan, Tim Couch, and Mark Sanchez.

I guess that's why such things have to be taken in context.

8
by jklps :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 4:22pm

I think calling Sav Rocca a punter is generous these days...

12
by Luigi (not verified) :: Tue, 10/29/2013 - 10:12pm

If Dallas, up by 3 doesn't kick the fieldgoal then can they lose? I would like to know the stats for games where a team is trailing by 3 with 1 minute or less. My guess is that most of the time the team either loses or kicks a FG to go to overtime.

So what is the best strategy when you are up by 3 in 4th down, field goal range and about 1 minute to go? I'd say the best thing is to just punt. If you manage to put the opponent inside their 10 yard line it would be either a win or OT.

14
by Scott Kacsmar :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 1:36am

This is something I want to be able to answer definitively, but for now I just feel strongly that teams will settle for the FG and OT in that case.

I have some partial data on successful one-minute drills from 1981-2011.

Down 3: 11 FG, 2 TD
Tied: 48 FG, 4 TD
Tied or Down 1-3 Pts: 81 FG, 10 TD

The only good argument for kicking the FG now like Dallas did (or Tampa Bay tried in Week 2 vs. New Orleans) is that with the new kickoff rule, a touchback is most likely instead of a big return. But a coffin punt that pins a team inside its 10 seems pretty favorable too.

16
by Luigi (not verified) :: Wed, 10/30/2013 - 6:21pm

Thank you Scott.

It would be interesting to compare
down by 3, 1 minute or less to go.
down by 6, 1 minute or less to go.

One bad thing about kicking the FG in Dallas case is that you remove the fear factor from the opponent's coach. Either his team drives for a winning TD or he just loses.

Down by 3 in FG range in 4th down most coaches (all of them) will kick the FG and proceed to overtime.

18
by JoeyHarringtonsPiano :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 10:17am

I'm of the mindset that when you're up by 3 in the opponent's territory, you should always just go for it on 4th down (given a reasonably convertable distance).

Jim Schwartz actually messed this up last year in week 11 vs. the Packers. The Lions were leading the Packers 17-14 with time winding down, and drove to the Packers 10 before stalling. I was hoping the Lions would try to go for it on 4th and goal and try to put the game away. Instead, Schwartz elected to kick a field goal to go up 20-14. Of course the Packers scored the game-winning TD on their ensuing possesion.

If the Lions had gone for it, best case scenario is they have a 10 point lead with 4 mins left and likely win the game. Worst case scenario is turnover on downs, and the Packers would have been marooned deep in their own territory, and it would have increased the chances of the Packers scoring a FG, not a TD on the next drive.