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02 Dec 2016

Clutch Encounters: DAL-MIN

by Scott Kacsmar

To kick off Week 13, Dallas and Minnesota pulled off the rare feat of playing in consecutive Thursday games. Getting the normal amount of rest between games did not really pay off in the quality of the game, as it was a sloppy contest with seven fumbles and a need for multiple replay reversals. The result was also the same as Thanksgiving: a blown lead in a low-scoring game (17-15) for the Vikings, and another win for the Cowboys, their 11th in a row. Minnesota is now 6-6 after a 5-0 start.

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer missed the game after having emergency eye surgery on Wednesday. In his absence, the team still looked very much like the 2016 Vikings: strong defense and an unsatisfying offense. If anything was out of sorts, it was an especially bad night for punter Jeff Locke, who netted just 31.9 yards apiece on seven punts. Meanwhile, Dallas' offense, the best in DVOA through Week 12, set season lows for points (17) and yards (264), and was just 1-of-9 on third down.

If you wanted a good summary of what kind of game this was, consider that Minnesota's go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter traveled 4 yards, while the Cowboys' game-winning drive was an 8-yard effort. The fumble luck was strong in this one.

We'll return on Tuesday with the rest of Week 13's close finishes in Clutch Encounters, but here is a special Friday recap of this game's decision making and statistical quirks.

Game of the Week

Dallas Cowboys 17 at Minnesota Vikings 15

Type: 4QC/GWD
Largest Fourth-Quarter Deficit: 2 (9-7)
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (23-30 at 4QC and 28-32 overall 4QC/GWD record)
Quarterback: Dak Prescott (4-1 at 4QC and 4-1 overall 4QC/GWD record)

This game got off to an amusing start when Sam Bradford, a week after repeatedly throwing short of the sticks on third down in Detroit, came out firing down the field on third-and-16 with a 23-yard conversion to Adam Thielen. Of course, by his fourth drive, Bradford was checking down 7 yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-6. Bradford finished the game with 32 completions for 247 yards. There have only been seven games since 1950 in which a quarterback completed more than 30 passes for fewer than 250 yards. Bradford has had two of those games since Thanksgiving, and this was the second time the Dallas defense forced such a game this season.

NFL Passing: More than 30 Completions, Fewer than 250 Passing Yards (Since 1950)
Quarterback Date Team Opp Result Comp. Att. Pct. Yards TD INT PR YPA
Chris Weinke 12/30/2001 CAR ARI L 30-7 36 63 57.1% 223 1 1 63.1 3.54
Jon Kitna 10/6/2002 CIN at IND L 28-21 31 43 72.1% 244 1 3 64.5 5.67
Matt Cassel 10/13/2013 MIN CAR L 35-10 32 44 72.7% 241 1 2 74.1 5.48
Ryan Tannehill 9/14/2014 MIA at BUF L 29-10 31 49 63.3% 241 1 1 73.6 4.92
Carson Wentz 10/30/2016 PHI at DAL L 29-23 OT 32 43 74.4% 202 1 0 91.4 4.70
Sam Bradford 11/24/2016 MIN at DET L 16-13 31 37 83.8% 224 0 1 80.6 6.05
Sam Bradford 12/1/2016 MIN DAL L 17-15 32 45 71.1% 247 1 0 91.6 5.49

Even with Dallas involved, there was not much offense to speak of in the early goings here. The game's first touchdown came in the second quarter courtesy of two great plays from the Cowboys. First, Dak Prescott showed his scrambling effectiveness with a 14-yard run on third-and-13. Four plays later, Dez Bryant embarrassed safety Harrison Smith with a little wiggle to get wide open for a 56-yard gain down to the 1-yard line. Prescott would have had the touchdown pass if the throw had been just a few inches shorter.

Dallas only led 7-3 at halftime, but some missed opportunities kept the score close. A 43-yard run by Ezekiel Elliott was negated for holding by Doug Free, and a penalty for illegal hands to the face on Orlando Scandrick wiped out an interception thrown by Bradford in the second quarter.

In the third quarter, penalties on tight end Gavin Escobar for clipping and holding set back two more Dallas drives. Prescott was sacked and fumbled after a great effort by Brian Robison to force the Cowboys into their second turnover, which is something they've only done one other time this season (at Green Bay).

As the game moved into the fourth quarter with Minnesota down 7-6, the Vikings offense only turned the Prescott fumble into a 4-yard drive. Kicker Kai Forbath nearly provided fans with a Blair Walsh flashback after hitting the left upright, but he got the fortunate bounce to give the Vikings a 9-7 lead with 14:11 left.

In Dallas' first effort to come back, a holding penalty on Elliott wiped out a big third-down conversion from Prescott to Jason Witten. That penalty wiped out what would have been Witten's only catch of the game -- the tight end failed to record a reception after doing so in 130 consecutive games. Minnesota appeared to be taking control of the game with another sack of Prescott, this time by Danielle Hunter, who continued a very rough night for Free at right tackle.

The ensuing punt was a huge turning point. Thielen appeared to fumble the ball, and Jason Garrett made a wise challenge that was successful in giving the Cowboys the ball at the 8-yard line. Thielen almost regained possession of his own fumble (just as Elliott did in the first quarter when his grip on the ball slipped), but then lost possession again on the ground before Kyle Wilber recovered for Dallas with 10:28 left. One smoke pass from Prescott to Bryant and one quick move against Xavier Rhodes had the Cowboys in the end zone and back on top 13-9. Prescott's fourth fourth-quarter comeback win ties the regular-season record for a rookie with Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Vince Young (2006), Andy Dalton (2011), and Andrew Luck (2012).

At this point, it was easy to argue that the Cowboys should have gone for a two-point conversion to make it 15-9. Their offense is clearly more skilled to pick up a conversion than Minnesota's offense is. Garrett immediately signaled to kick the extra point to go up 14-9 with 10:22 left.

Decision Outcome If Minnesota Scores… Outcome
Kick XP Good: Lead 14-9 (~95%) TD: would go for 2PC MIN leads 15-14 or 17-14 late (~50% each)
2 FGs the rest of the way MIN leads 15-14 late
Failed: Lead 13-9 (~5%) TD: would kick XP MIN leads 16-13 late (~95%)
2 FGs the rest of the way MIN leads 15-13 late
Go for 2PC Good: Lead 15-9 (~50%) TD: would kick XP MIN leads 16-15 late
2 FGs the rest of the way Game tied 15-15 late; OT likely
Failed: Lead 13-9 (~50%) TD: would kick XP MIN leads 16-13 late
2 FGs the rest of the way MIN leads 15-13 late
Note: Yes, Vikings could return blocked XP or 2PC for defensive 2-point score, but let's be real…

The four-point lead and five-point lead offer little difference in value here. However, if Dallas had scored next, even just a field goal would have made the score 18-9, or a two-score deficit in the very late stages of the game. Those are very valuable. Sure enough, after another bad Locke punt and a 30-yard run by Elliott, the Cowboys added a field goal. Of course, this still kept the game at one score at 17-9. Bradford had 4:10 to answer, but another sack killed the drive, and Minnesota actually punted with 2:58 left after getting into a fourth-and-12 at its own 36. With all three timeouts left, the punt was the right call.

On second down, Prescott had another great scramble, turning nothing into something, and nearly a first down with a slide in bounds to keep the clock running. Minnesota's challenge spotted the ball a yard short of the first down based on where Prescott started his slide. However, you could argue it was beneficial for Dallas to get a third-and-1 here. This offense was second in power runs coming into the week, and should have been able to grind out a yard in a spot like this. The four-minute offense is odd in that you almost prefer to be inefficient (i.e., taking as many plays as possible to get a new series of downs). With a third-and-1 that could have all but sealed the deal, Prescott had to fall on a fumbled snap to avert disaster. Minnesota immediately called its final timeout, which was a curious decision for a team that allows so many sacks. It may have been more valuable to save that timeout for after the two-minute warning instead of saving 20 seconds.

Cordarrelle Patterson nearly threw the game away with a muffed punt, but Minnesota recovered at its own 35. Bradford made one of his best passes on the move to Thielen for 18 yards, and since the receiver got out of bounds with 2:01 left, the Vikings actually snuck in a second play before the two-minute warning. Time was not much of an issue with the Vikings 41 yards away now. Bradford continued to pick on the Dallas defense underneath with six more short completions, including a 3-yard touchdown pass to Jerick McKinnon. Minnesota completed 70.2 percent of its passes on the night against a Dallas defense that was allowing a 70.3 percent completion rate coming into Week 13.

But one more stop on the two-point conversion should have been enough for the win. The Cowboys caught a little bit of a break with a false start on the Vikings, though some do believe that this penalty actually helps a passing team by giving them more room to operate. You knew the Vikings would throw from the shorter distance anyway, but it was a certainty with the ball at the 7-yard line now. Left tackle T.J. Clemmings actually got away with another Minnesota false start, but the Vikings can only wish the officials would have blown the play dead. Instead, it continued, and Bradford's throw under pressure was a laughable attempt through the back of the end zone that should be shopped around as an example of an uncatchable pass.

At the end of the play, Bradford did take contact to the head, and we have seen much less draw a flag in the past. Minnesota has a legitimate gripe here with the no-call.

Witten did not register an actual reception, but he caught Minnesota's onside kick attempt to end the game. Does this loss end Minnesota's season? The 6-6 Vikings should be favored in Jacksonville (Week 14) and against Chicago (Week 17), but the Colts (Week 15) and at Green Bay (Week 16) are tough tasks for an offense that has struggled to score points all season.

Season Summary

Fourth-quarter comeback wins: 53
Game-winning drives: 59
Games with 4QC/GWD opportunity: 111/178 (62.4 percent)
10+ point comeback wins (any point in the game): 27 (and one tie)

Historic data on fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives can be found at Pro Football Reference. Screen caps come from NFL Game Pass.

Posted by: Scott Kacsmar on 02 Dec 2016

9 comments, Last at 02 Dec 2016, 10:03pm by Will Allen

Comments

1
by BlueStarDude :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 2:19pm

Thanks for the special edition, and thanks for mentioning the false start. I understand why people are talking about the missed blow to the head, but few have mentioned that there was another missed call on the play, and the false start probably had more affect on the play than did the blow to the head which happened after Bradford released the ball.

2
by Joe Pancake :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 3:20pm

"However, you could argue it was beneficial for Dallas to get a third-and-1 here."

I don't think it's a very compelling argument. Minnesota only had two timeouts left and there was only about 2:25 remaining in the game and the clock was running. So if Dallas just plows into the line three times and punts, Minnesota likely has to drive 70 or so yards with only about a minute and no timeouts. I can't imagine they are more likely to score at least 8 points in that scenario than they are if they challenge the spot.

I actually thought Priefer very competently managed the endgame, which is no something I often say after watching an NFL game. It's not much consolation for Vikings fans being that they still lost and he's not their usual coach anyway.

6
by Scott Kacsmar :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 5:53pm

I was talking about the benefit going to Dallas, not Minnesota. The Cowboys should have been able to convert a third-and-1 there, and I would have loved to see if they would have tried a fourth-and-1 if the Vikings did stop them. I'd certainly support that call with an 8-point lead. End the game with a yard. But fumbled snap blew everything up.

7
by Joe Pancake :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 6:14pm

Eh... I can see what you are saying, but it's still not very convincing, in my opinion. I'm guessing Minnesota's win-expectancy was greater in that situation with a 3rd-and-1 than it was with a Dallas first down (in neither case was it very high). Therefore Dallas' win expectancy was necessarily lower.

I don't see how Dallas possibly benefits from a situation in which their opponent has a better chance to win.

3
by Will Allen :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 3:23pm

Anybody who is severely critical of Bradford's play this year is nuts. The guy is playing great, but when nobody ever gets blocked, the options on offense are pretty limited.

4
by t.d. :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 4:11pm

My opinion on him has completely changed, he can be a franchise quarterback. If they can put even a mediocre offensive line around him, they're real contenders (with that defense). Curious to see if getting AP back will be enough to run the table (which is what I think it's going to take)

5
by Will Allen :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 5:25pm

Yeah, I just don't see it. They literally cannot block anybody, and when they encounter a defense with any talent, it's just utter decimation. Their defense has to allow less than 10 points a game for them to have a chance, and while they are good on that side of the ball, they are not quite that good.

8
by jmaron :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 6:39pm

On the last drive Bradford got out of the pocket twice and made big plays, and on one of them he actually spun away from an open rusher. That's about the first time I can remember him making good plays out of the pocket, I'm sure there were others, but I can't remember them.

That's my problem with Bradford, he's accurate, and that's really important, but he's also so damn easy to get to. He goes to his spot and he doesn't move. He doesn't feel the rush he just stands on the spot. He keeps his eyes focused downfield, he doesn't have happy feet, and he makes some fine throws under pressure, but he never moves around the way a Brady or Manning do (did) to buy a little time. He is also prone to strip sacks because of that lack of feel.

The offensive line is the problem, if they were average the Vikings would be a contender. But I still think Bradford is a mediocre QB.

9
by Will Allen :: Fri, 12/02/2016 - 10:03pm

"Not a HOF qb" isn't exactly harsh criticism. You can win a championship with him, just like teams could with Walking Dead Manning, Flacco, Rookie Rothlisberger, etc.. Whether they should retain him next year should depend on Bridgewater's recovery of course, and whether Bradford insists on his 17 million. If je wont be flexible, cut him.

Frankly, depending on how the next month goes, Id hope Tyler Heinecke would get a start if the Vikings are eliminated, or Bradford gets dinged. They really wanted him to be the number 2 this year, before he had his freak injury. If the postseason is gone, they should try to learn something about him