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You've just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build your personnel department. How would you do it? Matt Waldman takes on the exercise.

15 Sep 2010

Cover-3: Voices Carry

by Doug Farrar

He's About a Mover: Arian Foster and the new Texans attack
Indianapolis Colts 24, Houston Texans 34

When I first talked to Houston Texans right tackle Eric Winston in June, I asked him about the close losses to the Indianapolis Colts last season, and what the Texans had to do to get over the proverbial hump. Two stats haunted Winston and his teammates: the 1-15 record against the Colts, and the 24 shots Houston had inside the red zone in those two Colts games, with just one rushing touchdown to show for it.

"It was a huge problem in 2008," he said. "I think we were a better offense in 2008 than in 2009, even though the stats don't show it, because we were more balanced. (New offensive coordinator) Rick Dennison will be a big factor; I think that will be his stamp on the team. All the (offensive coordinators) who have come through here have done something special. If you look at the two years (2008-2009) that Kyle Shanahan was the offensive coordinator, we had some huge passing numbers, and Matt Schaub developed into an elite quarterback. But a few of the wrinkles that Dennison has put in could be a big difference in the red zone, and let's face it, that's the difference between winning and losing: Are you going to kick field goals, or are you going to score touchdowns? Great teams score touchdowns."

What a difference a day makes. In the Texans' opening win over Indy, running back Arian Foster scored three rushing touchdowns and put up the second-most rushing yards (231 on 33 carries) on opening weekend in NFL history behind only O.J. Simpson's 250 in 1973. Per our numbers, it was the fourth-best day for a running back in the last 15 years (although that could change once we have enough information to apply opponent adjustments for 2010). Houston scored two red-zone touchdowns in this game alone, which was a huge step forward for a team historically inept in that department. When I talked to Winston again this week, he broke down the differences, starting with the performance of fullback Vonta Leach.

"He was really knocking some people around," Winston said. "And a fullback is really an extension of what we're doing up front. If we're doing outside zone, he's got to get his head on the outside, too, and really either force the linebacker to spill and play underneath or if the linebacker is going to play contain, keep stretching the guy so the cutback is even more predominant."

Another reason for the success of Houston's running game this time around was the use of formation and motion diversity to set up receivers and tight ends for blocking assistance. If the Colts brought a run overload to one side, or made pre-snap shifts of any kind, the Texans seemed far more adept at picking them up and responding.

"I think we are doing more stuff, and that's one of the things Rick Dennison brings," Winston said. "Being able to run the same plays out of different formations makes it tough to get a read on zone if you run four or five different plays out of four or five different combinations. It forces [the defense] to play straight up, because you're not giving away any tendencies. We're getting good matchups, but it's also hard to play us just one way because we're doing so much of that."

I asked Winston which play best typified the day enjoyed by the running game, and he pointed me in the direction of Foster's 25-yard scoring run in the fourth quarter (Fig. 1). On that particular drive, the Texans went 92 yards on four plays -- all on the ground, including a 42-yard gain, and ending in Foster's third touchdown run.

Figure 1: Texans TD w/Zone Left

"It really showed everything we're trying to do," Winston said. "We had some good cuts on the back side, good extension on the front side, and Arian really took that one step, hit the hole, and made a guy miss. I had a cutoff, and (Colts end) Robert Mathis lined up in what we call a Navajo front -- it's an old-style five-man front with a nose guard. It's a run-stopping front, and Mathis stepped from where he was outside into a three-technique. Cutting a guy off that fast is pretty tough -- I had to give him a little yank, and I ended up running him over a pile. That was right before Arian broke it off and got through the hole. So, that was a 19 call -- he cut back a little bit, got his foot on the ground, turned his shoulders north, and away he went."

The play happened on first-and-10 from the Houston nine-yard line after cornerback Glover Quin recovered an Austin Collie fumble. Houston went I-formation with a two-wide initial look, before Jacoby Jones motioned inside to help with the blocking. Clint Session came down from the weak side to make it a six-man front pre-snap, and the Texans ran a zone slide left with Jones running right after the snap. Cornerback Jerraud Powers followed Jones, which took him out of run support. Leach destroyed Gary Brackett at the second level (seriously, Leach was a total beast in this game), and Foster slipped quickly through the gap opened up the slide and Leach's excellent block. From there, it was just a matter of beating safety Melvin Bullitt to the pylon.

This integrated power attack was the only thing missing from Houston's offense, and if maintained consistently, should make everybody's favorite "team next year" into a major concern for every defense they face in the here and now. Houston travels to Washington to meet Jim Haslett's new and very interesting 3-4, and I asked Winston how a team prepares for a new defense with only one week of regular-season film to go on. "We'll spend a lot of time just watching film and seeing those fronts," he said. "With the multiple fronts they play, we'll see something, and we'll just have to adjust to it. But the big thing is, we have to just keep doing what we do."

With what looks like a new ready-made template for rushing success, that may be the Texans' best teaching point of all.

Maybe I'm a Leo -- Seattle's New Stunt-Fu
San Francisco 49ers 6, Seattle Seahawks 31

In 2009, the Seattle Seahawks rushed five or more defenders 130 times in 601 possible pass plays, which put the team in the middle of the pack both overall and among teams playing primarily four-man fronts. But those same Seahawks ranked 29th in Adjusted Sack Rate, and allowed a Defensive DVOA of 30.5% on blitzes. Only the Rams and Titans were worse when rushing more than four. This was less a formation issue and more a matter of patching personnel holes, as five years of "interesting" personnel decisions by team president Tim Ruskell left the team with ill-fitting fronts decimated by injuries. When Pete Carroll came to the Seahawks in January, he brought a history of hybrid fronts that went back to his time in Foxboro (head coach, 1997-1999) and San Francisco (defensive coordinator, 1995-1996). Carroll had some interesting ideas about switching between three-and four-linemen fronts, with the point-men playing the role of what used to be called the "Elephant" and is now called the "Leo" position. From Football Outsiders Almanac 2010:

"'Elephant' was just an e-word to designate a guy as being different from the regular defensive end," Carroll told the team's official site in May. "It's a position that can take on different sizes and shapes, but it is a spot -- a little bit of a hybrid position -- that is kind of a linebacker, kind of a defensive end. We picture it as a speed-oriented guy." Carroll got great sack seasons out of Chris Doleman in San Francisco and Willie McGinest in New England before he went to USC. For the Trojans, the most obvious beneficiary of the position was Clay Matthews.

The surprise Carroll brought back to the NFL was the first regular 3-4 looks in Seattle in a very long time. Through the Mike Holmgren era, a wave of coordinators ran different versions of 4-3 base defenses with occasionally effective results. Carroll didn't want what's been commonplace in the league over the last few years -- a switch to the 3-4 base defense without the personnel to run it -- as much as he wanted different defensive concepts to set opposing offenses on their heels.

"I think it's amazing that (defensive line coach) Dan Quinn can get those guys to come in and play," Carroll told me this week. "They were able to contribute in a big way for such a short time, and everybody went nuts about 'How can you possibly move forward in that amount of time?' If the guys understand the game plan, they can do a lot of things. That's not the case for all positions. For example, for (right tackle) Stacy Andrews to come in and get a whole game plan on offense is a huge challenge for an offensive lineman. But on the defensive side, our guys really did come through, and we're excited about that. They helped us in critical situations and made plays, too. It's a good system, and really good coaching. Really bright kids who can pick things up quickly -- it was a combination of all that."

Against the 49ers in the season opener, Seattle started off with a lot of four-man fronts and the zone coverage common to most Seahawks defenses. This allowed Alex Smith to bail out of the ultra-conservative game plan he'd either been "gifted" with or set on himself early on. Smith went from ill-advised checkdowns on third-and-goal to quick underneath stuff that moved the ball in the second quarter and set the team up to score. San Francisco never did get a touchdown -- they managed just two field goals out of 17 red-zone plays on their first three drives -- but they outgained Seattle 158-82 in the first half, and Smith was 15 of 20 for 125 yards. Efficient from a completion standpoint, but 6.25 yards per attempt and the lack of time in the end zone told another story. The Seahawks made some adjustments at halftime, but things started to get interesting with 1:45 left in the first half.

Figure 2: Alex Smith's First Interception

San Francisco had third-and-5 from its own 25-yard line in a shotgun, twins left formation (Fig. 2). Seattle had a front with just two down linemen -- Brock (98) shading the center, and Chris Clemons (91) outside the left tackle. The defensive left side was occupied by linebackers Lofa Tatupu (51) and Aaron Curry (59), and safety Lawyer Milloy (36) was cheating up pre-snap as a fifth "lineman." At the snap, Milloy backed out into coverage, and Curry closed off Smith's pocket, forcing him to step up. Tatupu and Brock did a little stunt upfront, and Smith threw a quick pass to Michael Crabtree (15) that bounced off Crabtree's hands and into the waiting arms of defensive back Jordan Babineaux (27). Smith hit Crabtree at a weird angle off his right shoulder, but this was also a great example of how the Seahawks' defense adjusted to stay aggressive while expecting short stuff underneath.

In the second half, Seattle alternated between more true 5-2, with Clemons and Curry as the main ends, and the more straight zone reads that helped cause Smith's second interception, a miscommunication pick to Marcus Trufant for a Seattle touchdown as Crabtree ran a route Smith wasn't expecting.

I attended several Seahawks practices during training camp and the preseason, and talked to the players and coaches as I observed what the team was putting together. It's bad form to say or write, "Oh -- I saw this and that, and that's what they did" in moving from practice to game action, but suffice to say that the success the Seahawks had with their multiple fronts was a matter of intelligent implementation over time. Smith's relatively horrible outing didn't hurt in this case, but after years of vanilla schemes that did little to enhance whatever talent may have been on the field, the Seahawks are starting to put together some defensive ideas that could transcend short-term roster issues.

2,000 Man -- Chris Johnson's Big Adventure
Oakland Raiders 13 at Tennessee Titans 38

Chris Johnson is hardly under the radar, what with having rushed for more than 2,000 yards and having broken Marshall Faulk's single-season record for yards from scrimmage. However, he's not the most outspoken guy. So I was happy to get the chance to spend a few minutes on the phone with him on Tuesday, and I asked him about two different touchdowns in Tennessee's 38-13 win over the Raiders in the season opener.

The first was Vince Young's 56-yard bomb to Nate Washington with 4:48 left in the first quarter. The Titans had first-and-10 at their own 44, and this was a great illustration of how the threat of Johnson opens up passing opportunities more than any other NFL back. This offseason, I wrote a bit about how this worked against the 49ers in 2009, and this was a nice stretch play action extension. I have seen the Colts and Saints run that stretch fake to perfection as well.

"I think that's the good thing about our offense -- [opposing defenses] can't put eight men in the box and focus on the running back," Johnson said. "If you do that, someone else will be open. They can't just keep going after me, because our quarterback and our receivers are so good, and they can make plays over the top. On that play, they had eight in the box, and the cornerback and safety both bit."

Indeed. The Titans went with four tight receivers and twins right, and the Raiders countered with a four-man front and rookie linebacker Rolando McClain just set back from the left edge. Cornerback Stanford Routt played close inside like he was expecting run right. At the snap, Young faked the stretch to Johnson, and most of the defense went that way. At the same time, receiver Justin Gage motioned from left to right post-snap as if pull-blocking, and hit the right flat to keep potential intermediate coverage underneath and provide Young with a bailout option if he needed it. Young didn't. With four different Raiders defenders trying to reverse field and get back to the middle after biting on that fake, Washington was able to get downfield for the touchdown on a deep seam pattern with Stanford Routt trailing in single coverage.

Then, there was the cross draw that provided Johnson with his first touchdown of the 2010 season. "That was pretty much a straight draw play in our two-minute offense," Johnson said. "Coach [offensive coordinator Mike] Heimerdinger called that play, and we had great blocking up front for that one."

With 1:43 left in the first half and the Titans at their own 24-yard line. Oakland went with two-deep nickel under in response to Tennessee's three-wide look. The threat of the option is a -- or maybe, the -- key to offensive success for this team, and Young took three running steps to the right and handed to Johnson, who then headed left behind excellent blocking. He outran a Raiders defense that was forced, once again, to play catch up. The only guy with a real shot at Johnson was safety Tyvon Branch, who came up from deep coverage and whiffed spectacularly. The more I watch these Titans, the more I see the most effective personnel for any kind of option plays at the NFL level since the Warrick Dunn/Michael Vick/T.J. Duckett backfield in Atlanta that led the NFL In rushing from 2004 through 2006.

I asked Johnson how much the stuff the Titans have been throwing at the rest of the league was about his specific skill set. "I don't feel like I had anything to do with how it was set up -- I Just came to practice and that's what they said we were running.," he said. "So, all credit goes to Mike Heimerdinger for calling the right plays. And this year, I feel that we can call more of the plays we called with Kerry Collins with Vince in there, because he's a better quarterback now."

Johnson has expressed a dream of rushing for 2,500 yards in a single season, and he's donating $10 to Tennessee schools for every yards he gains on the ground this year. I don't know if those schools will see the ultimate 2,500-yard payday, but I find it hard to bet against Johnson having another historic season. He's clearly in the ideal situation for a player with his abilities.

Posted by: Doug Farrar on 15 Sep 2010

28 comments, Last at 17 Sep 2010, 11:55am by Jimmy

Comments

1
by Eddo :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 11:59am

Awesome that you were able to have an interview with Johnson - he sounds pretty sharp, based on what you've reported. Was the rest of the interview similar?

2
by Doug Farrar :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 12:04pm

Yep. He's a good guy. The full piece will be up on Shutdown Corner later this week.

19
by Dave :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 10:02pm

Interesting. From what little exposure I've had to him (his unreadable twitter and the loudmouth boasting in general) I assumed he was a moron.

21
by Eddo :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 9:43am

If you go by Twitter to judge someone's intelligence, you must have very little faith in the world. And how would boasting make someone a moron? A jerk, maybe; but stupid?

I had assumed Johnson, with his 2500-yard goal (what other boasting has there been?) was another star with an overinflated ego, but as I said below, after reading this and hearing Doug's testimonial, he sounds like a guy with a good ego. He believes he can achieve anything, but realizes he'll need the right people around him to do so.

22
by Dave :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 11:28am

And how would boasting make someone a moron? A jerk, maybe; but stupid?

Obviously it wasn't the content of it, but more of a first impression. I don't know - you don't make snap judgments of people?

I'm not stubbornly clinging to it; an intelligent person with more exposure says he's not a moron, and I believe it. But it surprised me a bit.

(what other boasting has there been?)

I recall him openly campaigning for the MVP last year both before and after the announcement, for starters.

Which I guess, more to the point of the article, also made me assume he's a bit selfish. Which I guess then surprised me a bit as well, given the statement that he's all about the team and believably so.

So good for him. I'm more than happy to be wrong about that kind of snap judgment. I'm not betting on another 2000, let alone 2500, but I'd be thrilled if it happened.

28
by Jimmy :: Fri, 09/17/2010 - 11:55am

What is Sutdown Corner?

3
by Dean :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 12:05pm

As absurd as it might seem on the surface, I would only be mildly surprised to see Johnson have another historic season. We speak here frequently about passing statistics becoming more and more bloated - hell, 10 guys passed for 4000 yards last year and 100 receptions isn't eye popping anymore. To a lesser extent, the same thing is happening in rushing. Nobody ever rushed for 2000 until OJ, and it was a decade before it happened again. Yet now it's happend 4 times in the last 15 years. 2000 yards is still a big deal, but 2500 almost seems inevitable. 100 was still a big deal when Chris Carter had 122 in '94. Now it's happened 66 times.

I'm not a CJ fan. He seems like your standard bloated-ego guy to me. But 2500 will fall sooner rather than later, and he seems like the most likely candidate.

9
by Spielman :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 2:02pm

I disagree. Graph the leading rushers since the schedule expanded in 1978. Then graph your comparison, the leaders in receptions. One shows a significant increase over time, one does not.

An 18.76% increase over the highest total ever, which happened 26 years ago, does not seem to me to be anything like inevitable.

(Edit- Of course, with an 18 game schedule, all bets are off... with a 12.5% increase in games, 2500 yards is a much more reasonable target.)

14
by Dean :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 3:46pm

The 4000 yard passing barrier had only been broken 6 times (3 of which were by one man - Fouts) when Marino hit 5000. No, it wasn't an 18% improvement, but it was roughly a 15% improvement over anyone not named Dan Fouts.

Time will tell.

4
by Doug Farrar :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 12:09pm

Very little ego in my experience (I've interviewed him twice). He's very soft-spoken and when you ask about the offense, he spends most of the time talking about how good his teammates are.

If Johnson does repeat the 2,000-yard season, he'll be a real one-off with so many teams going to committees and heavier passing attacks. But as much as this offense revolves around him, and as much as Young's option abilities combine with Johnson's freakish skils to just mess defenses up, I wouldn't bet against him.

6
by Dean :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 12:25pm

Thanks for the follow up. I should also admit that I haven't really paid all that much attention to him, so my opinion is really more of a general impression from a distance than anything firm.

The other trend which plays in Johnsons favor is that most teams who have 2000 yard backs do it with QBs who are rookie starters (Joe Ferguson, Kyle Boller) and/or "just good enough to get the job and lose it" guys (Jeff Kemp, Scott Mitchell). John Elway (in the final year of his career) is really the lone exception. (insert obligitory sample-size footnote here)

Anyway, having Vince Young back there could work in his favor.

12
by Eddo :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 2:28pm

Johnson seems like he has a good ego; you want your star athletes to think they're good enough to reach heights that are not yet attainable, but not to be so full of themselves they think they don't need other good players around to help them.

5
by HoleInZone :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 12:15pm

Great piece Doug.

The addition of the player perspective really adds to it. I look forward to reading more through the season.

Nice to hear good things about Cop Speed too.

7
by pazz (not verified) :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 12:53pm

"I'm not a CJ fan. He seems like your standard bloated-ego guy to me."

But he can walk that walk.

8
by CoachDave :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 1:11pm

What a great article Doug. Just brilliant...going back and reading your article while watching the play develop via DVR or NFL Replay is doubly awesome.

10
by Alaska Jack :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 2:08pm

No diagram for Johnson's plays?

11
by Mike B. In Va :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 2:19pm

Awesome Deep Purple reference.

Awesome article, too. The humor of "the Outsiders" having inside access to players is outweighed by the fact that you actually use it in a way that illustrates your points. If this column is this good all season, it's a must-read.

20
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 6:40am

Deep Purple?

No, song by 'Til Tuesday

very good 80s song like mayeb top 5 if sat down long time and relally thought about it and mamde list and looked at othehr people lists and relally gave it a good looking over

26
by Jerry :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 6:47pm

"Maybe I'm a Leo" was on Machine Head.

27
by Raiderjoe :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 9:28pm

oh,oka.
was thinking about song "Voicies Carry"

13
by tuluse :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 3:38pm

I'm loving the short interviews woven with the analysis. Is this going to be the standard format for cover-3 this year?

As crazy as everyone else is going over CJ, the Eric Winston part was my favorite.

Time to get some defensive guys now.

15
by Doug Farrar :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 4:16pm

That's the idea. Getting three players from three different teams interviewed with the time crunch isn't really feasible every time, but I hope to have at least one each week.

16
by tuluse :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 5:19pm

Sounds awesome.

17
by Jerry :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 5:41pm

Congratulations on reaching the point where you can't talk to all the football people you want to, instead of vice versa.

18
by Mr Shush :: Wed, 09/15/2010 - 8:22pm

"Leach destroyed Gary Brackett at the second level (seriously, Leach was a total beast in this game)"

Leach has been a devastating lead blocker from the moment he arrived in Houston in 2006, and for all I know before then too. He also has real if limited value as a receiver: he doesn't seem to drop much, and can knock a defender or two over on his way upfield before he goes down. His Wikipedia entry may be one of very few that celebrates a throw-away jokey comment from a UK TV analyst above all his other career accomplishments. Ok, so a fair number of FO readers know Mike Carlson's great, but seriously? Anyway, like most Texans fans I am very greatful to have Vonta Leach on the team.

23
by jfsh :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 1:48pm

I always felt that was really all you need from your fullback.

1) Be a devastating blocker.
2) Don't drop the ball.

24
by Mr Shush :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 1:59pm

I'm inclined to agree, but if you are the kind of guy who likes to hand off to your fullback a couple of times a game in short yardage or goal line situations, Leach is not for you. Not a running threat of any kind.

25
by Kraig (not verified) :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 6:45pm

On the Seahawks' 5-2 look, what if the QB hadn't called a play to the right to avoid Milloy and instead run Gore up the left-middle? This play is clearly designed to bait Smith to do exactly what he did so Brock and Curry could get in his grill. Will it work more than once?