Minor weaknesses dot these teams. Except for Arizona, which needs to bring in more help to really run Bruce Arians' offense.
04 Aug 2010
In Late July, Doug Farrar and Mike Tanier revived their never-ending Hall of Fame argument. This year’s focus: The Coaches.
Mike: Don Coryell passed away recently, and in previous emails we disagreed on his HOF worthiness. Why don’t you start by giving the case for him?
Doug: We’re talking about one of the truly great schematic architects of his era, and I would compare him to Mike Holmgren in this way: though Sid Gillman is rightfully regarded as the father of the “vertical spacing offense” (what might be called the true West Coast Offense), Coryell was that offense’s most skilled disciple and evangelist. Holmgren has been, in my opinion, the Coryell to Bill Walsh’s Gillman – the most talented and effective acolyte.
To a greater or lesser degree, Coryell has his name stamped on the three-digit numbered route system, H-backs, single-back sets, the I-formation, tight ends breaking records out of the slot/flex positions, multi-purpose backs who lead the league in total yards, and the expanded route tree. He took the St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Chargers from nothingness to near-Super Bowl contention, and that was a pretty neat trick in both cases. I know that his postseason record has kept him out of the Hall of Fame so far, but I would argue that his schematic influence puts him in on a no-matter-what basis. Three decades after he ran his offense in San Diego, Norv Turner is doing pretty much the same thing. Add in the Dallas and Washington offenses that had a lock on the Lombardi trophy in the late 1980s and early 1990s whenever the 49ers didn’t, and it’s a pretty impressive legacy.
Mike: Here's my problem: Don Coryell seems to have invented everything. It sounds like Sid Gillman, Al Davis, George Allen and these other legends were sitting around a table saying, "gee, I have no idea what plays to call." Then Coryell would visit from San Diego State, draw a few plays on the chalk board, and all of them would shout "Eureka!"
Then, Bill Walsh, John Madden, and Joe Gibbs would stumble around trying not to trip over footballs, but once Coryell showed them that the ball should be thrown forward, they all smacked their heads and started coaching.
Yes, I am being glib. But my point is that when I read the quotes about Coryell, everyone is gushing about how many brilliant innovations he made. And I know he made some. But I am reading quotes by players and friends who want to plug Coryell to join them in the Hall of Fame. They can't talk about his championships. So they talk about his innovations.
Go back and watch some old Chargers footage from the late 1970s or early 1980s. You would expect to see them running some wild four-receiver, empty-backfield stuff, based on what is sometimes said of Coryell. They didn't. They ran a two-back set. They handed off to the fullback a lot. It was a 1970s offense with more motion and passing. It looks a lot more like what Ted Marchibroda was running with the Colts and Eagles at the same time than like anything Norv Turner or anyone else runs now. I have quotes about Coryell using a lot of three-receiver sets, but he didn't start using them until later in the 1980s, when a lot of coaches used them. Joe Gibbs and his staff innovated single-back offense, not Coryell.
Long story short, I think he was a great offensive coach, but he was two years ahead of his time, not ten, and he gets far too much love from the more successful guys who came before and after him.
Doug: Oh, sure – people are gilding the lily because their great friend isn’t where he should be. I totally get that. But at the same time, Mike Martz has said, flat out, that the Greatest Show on Turf was cribbed from Coryell. Vermeil said the same thing. When was the last time you saw Mike Martz give someone else credit for an offensive innovation?
I would say that he was more of an innovator than an inventor. It’s a fine but important line. Gillman, who ran the offense upon which Coryell’s were built, had Keith Lincoln and Paul Lowe in the backfield, so Gillman wasn’t going nuts with the four-wide all the time, either. They ran almost as much as they passed in a lot of those early AFL seasons. It wasn’t as much about how often they did the more dynamic things – it was the effect of it when they did, especially in the eras in which they did it. You know how conservative the offenses of the time were. I don’t think his influence is greatly overstated, but I do think that his inability as a head coach to help accelerate the defensive performance of his teams was a problem. If you want to bury your head in the playbook 24-7, go be a coordinator. His job as the head coach was to be an overseer, and that’s where I’d ding him more than anything.
Mike: I think my problem with the Coryell Hall of Fame argument is that it becomes too much of an "argument," rather than a simple resume. We have to span 50 years of NFL history and give him all of these little pieces of credit for things he created, helped to create, or was in the room for the creation of. We have to give him credit for the 1980s Redskins, the 1990s Cowboys (whose on-field offense looked totally different), the Greatest Show (which looked different from either of them). We have to rewrite NFL history a little to make it seem like mid-1970s Cardinals (who finished 9th, 7th, and 8th in points in their best years) were somehow power brokers, and that the 1979-82 Chargers were the only team that was doing anything innovative on offense in that era. Oh yeah, and we have to wedge him between Gillman, Allen, and Al Davis in the 1960s, even though he was just a college coach at the time. If he had real Hall of Fame credentials, we wouldn't have to call in favors from the 1999 Rams and 2009 Chargers.
Coryell does pass one important test for me, though: he's famous. He's probably the only coach who is famous purely for x's and o's.
Doug: Well, that’s the problem with matching up NFL history and actual strategy – things get filmier and filmier the further you go back, because professional football doesn’t have the bit-by-bit history that baseball does. I recently read a pretty lengthy treatise of the history of zone blocking in pro football in which Vince Lombardi was mentioned only tangentially. That was a “HUH?!?!?” moment for me. I’ve been researching ancient NFL history for different reasons over the last few months, and God, it’s hard to know what to believe at times. You do have to fill in some blanks, and you do have to take the word of people who worked with him and were influenced by him. And that’s where you have to separate actual coach-to-coach influence from pure hagiography. It’s going to have to be subjective to a degree, and we’re going to have to decide how much of those wonderful references we want to believe. Given the number and sheer success of the people who were saying these things about Coryell before he died, I may put a bit more behind that than you do, though I absolutely understand your reluctance to do so.
Mike: I always thought Marty was a great coach and an unfairly maligned one. That said, I don’t think he belongs in the Hall of Fame, because I think you have to judge coaches on their championships, or at least their near-misses, and the guy never reached the Super Bowl. Just to be clear, I think there are two standards at work. When hiring a coach or evaluating him during his career, you judge him on what he’s capable of doing, and you recognize that things like the Fumble and The Drive were out of his control. When selecting a coach for the Hall of Fame, you ratchet the standard up and ask what he did. And no, that’s not always fair.
Doug: I support Marty more than most, but I would disagree that the two AFC Championship losses to the Broncos were beyond his control. As great as Elway was, the other team has to back off defensively, and that’s what happened in both cases. Maybe he was an accessory after the fact. I also think that he had a tendency to over-motivate; at a certain point, you have to stop with the “There’s a gleam!” stuff and figure out a way to beat an offense that is more dynamic than yours. But the 200 wins thing is tough to overlook. In the last Hall of Fame piece we did, we talked a lot about “stat collectors”, and I don’t think he was one when it comes to wins. He has 10 or more wins in half of his 20 full seasons, and just two losing seasons overall. Had he even gone to one Super Bowl with those Browns teams, or somehow gotten over the hump with the Chiefs or Chargers (the Chiefs were the winningest team of the 1990s, by the way), we wouldn’t even be having this discussion. That’s where I start dissecting the randomness of the postseason. There are certain coaches whose s**t doesn’t work in the playoffs, to paraphrase Mr. Beane. And if you’re going to put them in the Hall of Fame despite that, they had better be either a) supreme motivators or b) ultimate tacticians. That puts Marty in a gray area, because I don’t know that he was either one. He’s just sitting there as the only coach with 200 wins not already in the Hall (there have been six in NFL history), and it isn’t as if wins are any easier to come by now than in any other era. Maybe he can get in as the only coach to be fired after posting a 14-2 record.
Mike: All I can think of now is The Drive, The Fumble, Marlon McCree, the weird fourth down decision, and wonder: how did this guy go a whole career and not somehow wind up in Philadelphia?
Mike: I have a hard time separating the Dungy aura from his actual accomplishments. I am certain he’s going into the Hall of Fame, because of the aura, and because his status as the first black coach to win a Super Bowl has to count for something. I’m not overwhelmed by his resume, but I just don’t want to vote against him.
Doug: What’s interesting to me about Dungy is the comments of guys like Warren Sapp after the fact – the Buccaneers players who “grew up” in the NFL with him as their mentor. They felt that there was a double standard for offense and defense; that the defense was expected to perform at an all-time level and that the offense was supposed to be just good enough to win. Of course, that standard switched when he went to Indianapolis because he had a murderously competitive quarterback, a coaching staff that could design a dynamic offense (I’ll take Tom Moore and Howard Mudd over Mike Shula, thanks), and a brilliant personnel executive who was building a potential dynasty. With guys like Dungy, who are so low-key on a personal level and tend to hand off many schematic responsibilities, I wonder how much the players buy in. They’re not going to play for Dungy because they’re afraid of his response; they’re probably more afraid of Manning or Polian. But do they love and respect him enough to play for him? I think his players did, to whatever degree they could, and that’s one reason he’ll get in. The historic factor is important, as is the fact that he’s seen as such an ambassador of the game, as is (to a much lesser degree) his involvement in the Steel Curtain defense. I’m not overwhelmingly in his corner, but it won’t drive me nuts when he goes in.
Mike: When reading Nate Dunlevy’s book Blue Blood, I was reminded of how Dungy’s low-key approach was considered something revolutionary when he took over the Bucs, and then the Colts. We all expected brimstone guys, and a lot of people, from fans to reporters to execs, assumed that a low-key, procedure-oriented guy couldn’t motivate a team. Dungy showed that it was not only possible, but really preferable in an age when millionaire athletes are going to roll their eyes at a tough-guy sermon coming from somebody who isn’t Bill Parcells or Mike Singletary. I think Dungy’s demeanor counts as an “innovation” that has shaped the game in recent years.
Mike: It’s really hard to distance yourself from success or failure when judging recent guys. I keep thinking of the 2008 Seahawks, and of the 2006 and 2007 teams that just hung around and won the division because it was the NFC West, and I say “no way.” But of course his overall record is much better than that. Overall, I would pass on Holmgren, and I would take Dungy over Holmgren because of the historic element. Holmgren would get more “architect of a team” points if those 1990s Packers had done better in the playoffs.
Doug: As much as I compared him to Coryell in the Coryell argument, Holmgren’s influence wasn’t schematic in the same sense – Walsh had that thing so dialed in after all those years in Cincinnati, the guys who learned it from him moved things around a bit but didn’t really put their names on anything specific.
The Super Bowl-winning team he coached was his to a great degree on offense, but Ron Wolf and Fritz Shurmur deserve as much credit, and Wolf probably deserves more. He loses points for being an absolutely horrible GM in Seattle – the Seahawks didn’t really spark up until he agreed to be demoted and was able to focus exclusively on coaching. Had he won Super Bowl XL, we’re telling a different tale, but he didn’t. He is one of four coaches to win a Super Bowl with one team and lose with another – Bill Parcells, Don Shula, and Dick Vermeil are the others. I have a great deal of respect for Holmgren, but I would not, under any circumstances, put him in the Parcells/Shula class. Vermeil seems to be a pretty good comp.
Had Tim Ruskell not turned out to be a chubbier version of Vinny Cerrato, Holmgren might have gotten another shot at the ring. But he didn’t, even though I think 2007 featured his career-best coaching job. Like Vermeil, I think he’s on the precipice.
Doug: With Knox, I think you have to look at VORC (Value Over Replaced Coach) to a degree. When he came to the Rams, they went from 7.0 to 12.1 Expected Wins in his first season. In Buffalo, from 2.4 to 6.5. In Seattle, from 6.5 (prorated for strike year) to 8.1. Even in his return to L.A., which was more ceremonial than anything else, he upped that team from 3.7 to 6.1. That’s not the best metric, but we’re unfortunately talking about pre-DVOA here. He didn’t have Hall-of-Famers all over his rosters; he seemed to like above-average veterans on the wrong end of the age curve and he had the ability to motivate mediocre athletes beyond their limitations.
That said, we’re back to the Martyball discussion – when your offensive schemes handcuff your teams and prevent you from even getting to a Super Bowl, is the fact that under most coaches, you wouldn’t even be there from a talent perspective make up for it? In Knox’s case, I’d take a page from his own playbooks and err on the side of caution.
Mike: I think Knox and Schottenheimer fall pretty neatly into the same category. Some guys just have a piece of NFL history to call their own, but they don't have Hall of Fame credentials. The enshrinement, for better or worse, goes to the winners of those epic playoff battles.
Doug: I would basically agree, though the 200 wins metric makes Marty harder to exclude.
Doug: Growing up in Denver as I did, I am soooo conflicted on Reeves. Yes, he coached three different Broncos teams to Super Bowls, but I find it difficult to get past the fact that he went out of his way to antagonize his best player. The relationship with Elway, the Tommy Maddox draft pick, the fact that Elway was almost dealt to the Redskins … I don’t know. I may need an objective voice on Reeves’ career accomplishments before I can continue.
Mike: Well, you have 190 wins, three AFC championships, an NFC championship. The biggest knocks on Reeves are a) that the Broncos won Super Bowls after he left and b) he had a bunch of lousy years with the Giants, and most of his Falcons career was forgettable. If you are trying to Bud Grant or Marv Levy your way into the Hall of Fame by losing Super Bowls, you have to be able to argue that you took teams as far as they could go. There's evidence that the Broncos could have gone further.
Doug: That’s pretty much where I stand. He had a lot of personnel control, and his teams tended to come up lacking in key moments.
Doug: Master motivator, no doubt. Knowledgeable football guy, without question. But I have difficulty separating his specific coaching accomplishments from the ridiculous talent he had on those teams, especially on defense. How much of what the Steelers did under Cowher was Cowher, and how much was Blitzburgh and Dick LeBeau and Dom Capers and Ken Whisenhunt and that outstanding front office? Does the tail wag the dog? I’m not trying to discount his achievements at all, but it seems that we’re having the same discussion about a lot of the coaches on the bottom half of the Top 15 career wins list: How much was due directly to their efforts?
Mike: It's odd how slippery that argument gets. Does Cowher get credit for "developing" Capers and "discovering" Whisenhunt? Or do they get credit for making him look good? It's the problem I have with the Coryell argument, when we start parceling out a team's wins among all the assistants and guys who came before and after. From a head coach, I want wins and championships, and when it comes to the Hall of Fame, I am not sure I care who your coordinators were.
Doug: I actually care a lot, due to what I call the Jim Lee Howell Rule. Howell went 53-27-4 in seven hears as the head coach of the New York Giants from 1954 through 1960, and nobody gives a damn. Why? As you well know, for most of that time, his offensive coordinator was Vince Lombardi and his defensive coordinator was Tom Landry. Assistants should matter when discussing the HoF credentials of head coaches, and they should also be considered far more often on their own, though that’s a different argument.
Mike: I know Howell's story well. He always made it a point of giving Lombardi and Landry credit. That was one unusual circumstance, 50 years ago. I don't think Capers and Whisenhunt are Landry and Lombardi.
Doug: Of course not, but in the same way supporting casts should be considered when talking about player accomplishments, I think that the level of assistant coach talent should be considered to some degree. I just don’t know what degree that is.
Mike: Cowher gets a lot of mileage out of the fact that the media loves him. I think the same resume, with a less dynamic personality, doesn't get much Hall of Fame attention.
Doug: To be a bit more specific about him, how much do you think he had to do with the Super Bowl years? He doesn’t fit our list of coaches who won a Super Bowl with one team and lost with another, but it was the same franchise with two teams a decade apart. If he was the primary guy, his cache goes up quite a few ticks.
Mike: I think he had a lot to do with the Steelers' success. He was the administrator/organizer/motivator/final decision maker. And I think it was a unique accomplishment, in our era, to stay with one team for so long. If he was just some figurehead who made speeches and looked cool on the sidelines, the Steelers would have replaced him with Capers, or Mike Mularkey, or someone else who went through their system.
Doug: I can buy into that. Is he a bit ahead of Marty/Knox and just behind Holmgren/Vermeil? Actually, screw it. I’m changing my mind. I want Marty in there. I don’t feel safe in an America where a guy with 200 career wins doesn’t get in the Hall of Fame. And it wasn’t as if he was napping through his final years like Connie Mack – the man went out on a 14-2 record. Make it so!
Doug: Anyway, since we’ve talked about assistants, and Dick LeBeau is going in this year (finally!), I’d be interested in your take on a) assistants and coordinators getting into the Hall, and b) the assistants and coordinators who would make your list. Since I’m thinking you’re a bit less behind this idea than I am, I’d be interested in starting with your take; then I can fill in the blanks where I think they may be. First of all, would you vote LeBeau in solely on his accomplishments as a coordinator?
Mike: I wouldn't vote LeBeau in as an assistant coach.
My general theory is that there are some professions that just aren't tracks to the Hall of Fame. Director of Scouting, for example. Or all-purpose special teamer. In baseball, middle reliever, or pitching coach, or utility infielder. Some of the jobs I just mentioned are incredibly important, but they are organizational jobs, infrastructure jobs. Like offensive and defensive coordinator.
I know how big their contributions are, but the moment they signed on as "assistants," I feel like they sacrifice most of the glory to the organization and to the head coach. Now again, I am not saying they shouldn't be appreciated, shouldn't be well paid, but when it comes time to enshrine someone in a Hall of Fame, I think it's weird to talk about a "legendary assistant".
I have no problem with some "innovators exhibit" with LeBeau, Coryell, and others. When I take my kid to the bust room in Canton, I want to point and say: "Look, he threw for 40,000 yards. Look, he was the head coach for 4 Super Bowl teams. Look, he ran for 12,000 yards." Not, "Look, he sat in a press box with a headset and called plays, except when he was overruled by his boss."
Doug: Interesting. To use the baseball example, would you vote Dave Duncan in? I would. If a coach/assistant/coordinator has proven his ability to drastically improve the fortunes of his charges over an extended period of time – I’m talking about at a World Series/Super Bowl level over decades – but doesn’t have the stomach/temperament/opportunity to be a successful head coach, there’s still a great deal of value there. And I’m not sure about the idea of subverting for the greater good – Alex Gibbs comes to mind immediately as a guy who not only put his individual stamp on offensive line play, but basically comes as a whole package – this is me, this is my scheme, you’re going to benefit greatly from it, now bug off and go do linebacker cut-ups or something.
Yes, I would want to take my kid to see Joe Montana and Dick Butkus and all the super-greats. But I would also want to learn more about the guys behind the scenes. Maybe that is the function of a “wing” as opposed to a series of busts, but I still think these guys are under-represented, and that it should be an ancillary responsibility of a Hall of Fame to expose fans to sides of the game they wouldn’t know about otherwise.
Mike: I wouldn't vote Dave Duncan in because then I would look for other great pitching coaches in history. Who was Earl Weaver's pitching coach in the 70s and 80s? I bet he has a resume to match Duncan's. What about the Dodgers' coach when Koufax/Drysdale went through? Then I may have to look at batting instructors, some of whom coached dozens of future stars. Then scouts, and so on.
We can do the same thing with coordinators and position coaches. If Alex Gibbs is a Hall of Famer, there are probably dozens of other position coaches who made similar contributions, guys who modernized the techniques at all the different positions. I don't want these guys getting into the Hall of Fame over PLAYERS: exciting, hard-hitting, fast-running, imagination-capturing players.
I mean, you have a list beyond LeBeau, right? What other assistant coaches do you think deserve consideration?
Doug: Well, Duncan’s a bit different. He did it a lot longer than the average good assistant, with different teams, and was a key cog in multiple championships.
As far as NFL coordinators/position coaches, I’m putting Gibbs on the list, along with Bud Carson. Those guys I don’t even have to think about. And here’s a question for you. What’s your take on Buddy Ryan, purely as a coordinator? He built the Jets defense that turned Earl Morrall into a pumpkin in Super Bowl III, and made Tony Eason poop on himself in Super Bowl XX. Two different teams (hell, two different eras), two defensive Super Bowl wins. Take the head coaching stuff out of it, even though you’re writing a book on Philly sports icons.
Mike: Ryan's resume isn't really that different from Coryell's is it? He has a lot of defensive innovations on his resume, across 20 years. He has coaches who he influenced, like Jeff Fisher and his sons, and you can argue that much of the Saints defense was cribbed from Ryan ideas. As a head coach, he was totally one-dimensional, but he built scary defenses that took teams to the playoffs. And he was really the first celebrity coordinator, the guy who took media attention away from the head coach.
Of course, Ryan pissed off a million people, so you don't hear glowing endorsements from guys he coached with about his qualifications. And yes, getting along with your coaches and owners is a big part of the job. But I think, if we are putting coordinators in, Ryan would go in, except for the fact that he sometimes punched out his colleagues. And for the life of me, I just can't picture Buddy in the Hall of Fame, especially a boring Ryan who doesn’t make fun of the owner and punch out the offensive coordinator.
Doug: Hmmm … I may need to go back and re-calibrate my coordinator argument.
Doug: In any case, where do we stand? I have a “yay” vote on Coryell, and after further review, I’m voting Marty in on the condition that I don’t have to sit through what would probably be a three-hour induction speech. Our other four coaches seem to fall short.
Mike: I will put Tony Dungy in. I won't form a picket line if Schottenheimer, Cowher, or Coryell go in. Let's see what materializes in Cleveland: if two years from now the team is 12-4 and it's clear that Holmgren is doing a lot of good as an exec (or if he takes Mangini's job in two months), it may push him over the edge.
Doug: I remain undecided/noncommittal on Dungy and Cowher. Agreed on Holmgren – I don’t think there’s enough just yet to put him in. I don’t think he’ll take Mangini’s job in two months – but I think he will have it if there is NFL football in 2011. The man lives to coach above all.
131 comments, Last at 05 Dec 2010, 11:13pm by Joseph F.
Comments
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Good reference to Blue Blood, an excellent Colts book and pretty good on some general NFL stuff in the past 26 years.
And Tom Moore better make the HOF or I'm gonna have words with somebody. You can point to Peyton Manning and Barry Sanders all you want, but Moore constantly adapted to the personnel he had and made Scott Mitchell an All Pro. Nuff said.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
It is really interesting to read writers at this site concentrate on a sample size of 20 games or so, and mostly ignore a sample size of 300 games, when deciding whether a coach gets into the Hall of Fame. You guys are completely ignoring the reality of pure, dumb, luck.
I'll reiterate a counterfactual history here, with another coach, to illustrate. If Roger Craig doesn't drop the ball at the end of the 1990 NFC Championship Game, George Seifert very likely has at least 3 Super Bowl Cahmpionships, never gets fired by the 49ers, never goes to the Panthers, retires with the highest winning percentage in NFL history, and many people are calling him the best ever. Instead, he does not even warrant mention in this article. Because Roger Craig muffed a handoff.
What I know is not the product of luck is very good, and sometimes extraordinary, winning percentages, compiled over a very large sample size of games, with multiple franchises.
It's not quite as weak as evaluating qb value on Super Bowl rings, but it isn't very sound.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Not to mention that Bill Parcells's HOF credentials become significantly more debatable, doubly so because then he wouldn't have gotten to do his seminal coaching job the following week v. Buffalo.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Oh, I don't think it would be more debatable for knowledgeable folks. The jobs he did in New England, for the Jets, and then Cowboys were phenomenal. There would be those who would say, speciously, "Hey, he only won one Super Bowl!". That's what is wrong with how coaches are evaluated, however.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I agree, but I think taking away his two signature victories would make a difference in his Giants resume, even for analytic observers. The coaching job against the Bills (shared with Bill Belichick and especially Ron Erhardt) was one of the best of a generation, and he would be left with one title when his team was the clear favorite in the league, which fairly or unfairly coaches tend not to get as much credit for.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I'd quibble as to whether the Giants were the clear favourite in 1986. It's too long ago for me to remember what the hype was but they were only three seasons removed from a 3-12-1 record.
The Super Bowl reigning champion Bears went 14-2 and their defense allowed just 187 points which was even better than the year before; albeit in an easier division than the Giants who were also 14-2 but conceded 236. The Bears got bumped from the playoffs by the 12-4 wildcard Redskins.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I still don't think anyone would call Seifert the great coach ever. Everyone knew it was Walsh's team.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Seifert's an interesting case. Before his final 1-15 mess of a season in 2001, he had a 113-47 record. His San Fran numbers are exceedingly good. People obviously discredit his record in San Fran because of inheriting a good team. He inherited what was, until I'm guessing the 2001 Pats or 2007 Giants the worst team to win a Super Bowl in terms of pythag. projection. He inherited a team that most saw on the way down, and went 14-2, 14-2, 10-6, 14-2 in his first four seasons. He lost playoff games, sure, but never lost that badly (contrast to Walsh, who was destroyed in a playoff game). Also, if Walsh gets credit for his tenure, and people point to the coordinators he had (Holmgren, Shanahan), shouldn't he get some credit for the success under Walsh. Throughout the SF dynasty, the defense was more consistent, and at times more incredibly good, than the offense (until late in the Young years). His defenses were always great.
Personally, the Walsh factor, and the 1-15 will probably keep him out (he was 15-17 in his first two years in Carolina), but I do deserve he, and Tom Flores, both deserve to be in.
I am surprised that you guys seemed to have Cowher a level above Holmgren. They've each won a Super Bowl. Holmgren's been to two others, Cowher just one. Holmgren did it with two teams. Homgren's low years in Seattle are actually quite analogous to Cowher's three-year-run of mediocrity from 1998-2000 (Holmgren's being 2000-2002). In my opinion, Holmgren's a tick ahead.
Not sure how Dungy isn't closer to a lock. He, along with Monte Kiffin (who I am amazed wasn't even mentioned in the coordinator section) made the Tampa-2 popular and effective. He has the Walsh effect of a good, solid coaching tree. He's been very successful with two different franchises, made the playoffs 11 times in 13 years, has over a 66.6% winning percentage, and took a moribund franchise and made them very, very good.
All in all, it was an entertaining discussion to read.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I'm late to the party on this, but it seems to me that the 20 games are a secondary filter. You needed to do extraordinarly well on the first 300 games or you were already disqualified from consideration. The 20 games then become a secondary criteria to filter out the truly great from the almost great, or the not-quite-great-enough.
The 300 game sample filters out the Wayne Fontes' of the world who won a lot of games somehow, but certainly doesn't belong. But it doesn't really warrant much discussion when comparing the likes of Cowher, Dungy, etc.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Completely agree. I was disappointed on the focus for a coaching career on what only happens in the playoffs. And then I was astonished regarding the randomness of the metric's use when Dan Reeves name came up. It was not the FO caliber type of analysis we have been spoiled with. I'll chalk it up to the fact that maybe Messrs. Tanier and Farrar are not up to mid-season form.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
In any discussion regarding assistant coaches and the HOF, I am contractually required to throw Monte Kiffin some love.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I think a discussion about hall of fame coaches is like a discussion of hall of fame dads. There are recognizably great ones out there, and if you stacked two together, it would usually be easy to see which one is better. But there are simply too many variables, outright unknowns, gaps, and an unavoidable lack of metrics for an objective review to declare who the all time greats are.
Player arguments for the hall are subjective as well, but you can still point to a wealth of meaningful statistics that do a decent to great job of isolating single player performance.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Tying comments 3 and 4 together: Monte Kiffin may be a Hall of Fame-worthy coach. But he is not a Hall of Fame-worthy dad, based solely on the fact that he produced Lane Kiffin.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Tony Dungy is a tough sell for me. He underachieved in Tampa, and using your Reeves example, the team performed better after he was off to Indianapolis. He did not take them as far as they could go. The same might be able to be said of the Colts. Their regular season win total is amazing, but they twice lost at home in the playoffs (neither time to New England). They also lost in the playoffs 4 other times in underwhelming fashion. Essentially youre left with one game, albeit one of the best in NFL history, the 06 Title game victory over the Patriots. Is this really a hall of fame legacy?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I really cannot understand the value of analysis which puts far greater weight on 19 games, as opposed to 200-plus games, when evaluating the quality of coaching which took place.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Will, I think there is an argument for weighting postseason games much more heavily for coaches that you would for players. Should 19 games totally outweigh 200? No, but they aren't; you're arguing a strawman. We wouldn't talk about Dungy (or Marty) at all if it weren't for the regular season games.
Coaching becomes especially magnified in the playoffs. Theoretically, your players can be good enough to beat up on average competition in the regular season, but need some extra coaching to do well against better competition in the playoffs.
That being said, I think both Dungy and Marty deserve to be Hall of Fame coaches.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Dungy's postseason record is better than George Allen's and similar to Bud Grant's. He's clearly a perfect fit in the 2nd tier of HoF coaches.
http://18to88.com/fixtures/2008/is_tony_dungy_hall_of_fame_worthy.html
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I think you are simply deceiving yourself if you think you can look at a sample size of 20 playoff games, and determine with any degree of accuracy whether that won-loss record, over that few games, was more determined by coaching acumen, relative to other coaches, or just random chance. Especially once one considers the single elimination format of the playoffs.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The single elimination format is a red herring. A twenty game sample is a twenty game sample. The fact that it's spread over two teams and eleven seasons helps, rather than hurts, our ability to use it to judge the coaching.
Sure 20 games (isn't it 19?) is a small sample. But it's a big sample for playoff games, and it's more games than a season. We judge players' and coaches' performance over a season all the time. In fact, this site is all about judging performance over periods of less than 20 games.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
No, it isn't a red herring. In a single elimination format, bad luck, resulting in a first round elimination, precludes the opportunity to overcome randomness, and demonstrate true value.
Saying 20 playoff games is a big sample for playoff games is like saying Ted Williams' 25 World Series at bats is a big sample. In terms of minimizing the effects of randomness, a small sample is a small sample, period. When we judge a qb's performance over 20 games, we are using a sample size of 400-500, not 20. Even then, no sane person would make a definitive judgement of a qb's career value based on a sample size of 400 attempts. Well, check that; people who don't understand the game, even some of those who played it and coached it, are often so silly as to put great weight on two or three Super Bowls, when evaluating a qb's career performance.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
In judging playoff coaching skills, we can only go by the data we have. Dungy coached 19 playoff games, which would put him in the middle of the pack for Hall of Fame coaches. From this we can say two things: He made the playoffs often enough to be considered for the Hall on that account. And he coached enough playoff games that we can fairly compare his playoff career to Hall of Fame coaches in general.
His 9-10 record would not be the worst modern playoff record in the Hall, but it would be one of the three or four worst. Modern Hall of Fame coaches average 2.5 games over .500 in the playoffs, while Dungy is 1 game under. Suffice it to say that his playoff successes will not be what puts him the Hall.
Whether or not his playoff performance reflects his "true" playoff skill is moot. He is not being considered for the Hall of Coulda-Shoulda-Woulda.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
When the data is wholly inadequate to the task of empirically answering the question one is inquiring about, and sample sizes of 20 or so pretty much fits that definition, then one is better served by ignoring that data, and sticking to the data that provides a much more sound empirical basis for drawing conclusions with some degree of confidence.
Using tiny sample sizes to draw conclusions is really bad reasoning. One may as well use a roulette wheel when handing out the ugly yellow blazers.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
You cannot be seriously arguing that Dungy had an outstanding or even an above average playoff career (in anything other than number of appearances, which is a measure of regular seasons, not playoffs). At best, you are suggesting that his teams' slightly-sub-par playoff record may not be his fault.
That's a weak argument. Accept it that Dungy's playoff results do not contribute at all to his Hall of Fame case. He will get into the Hall or not as an excellent coach in the regular season, and as an historic coach in the sense of achieving a racial milestone. (Yes, history should matter to the Hall) He's not much in terms of advancing the sport or football innovation in general. For all of his success, it was not usually his team that others were copying.
Personally, I think he gets in. His regular season records are more than enough to give him consideration, and his place in history puts him over the top.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
No, what is weak is misrepresenting what I wrote. I never wrote Dungy's playoff record was outstanding or above average. I wrote that the labels "outstanding" or "above average" are meaningless in the context of tiny sample sizes. Look, I know you really, really, really, believe that you can examine a tiny number of data points, and discern whether those data points were produced by acumen or random chance, or to what degree those two elements produced those data points. The reality, unfortunately, is that you can't. Don't feel bad, however. Nobody else can either, as much as we like to tell ourselves the opposite.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Then can we at least agree that Dungy's playoff record, results, and accomplishments are neither outstanding nor above average, nor even average for playoff coaches? That they were slightly below average? That's a statement that has nothing to do with sample size.
That's the point I am making. I'm not claiming that he is a bad coach. I'm not using his playoff record to prove something about his worth as a human being. I'm just saying there is nothing "famous" about his playoff career. I'd even make an exception for being the first black coach to win a Super Bowl. That's historic.
Most of the modern Hall of Fame coaches do have "famous" playoff careers. Not all, certainly, so his lack of famous playoff results don't disqualify him. But if we judged only on the playoffs, he would not be considered at all. He will have to earn his place with his many other accomplishments for which he is rightly famous.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
No, we can't. With 20 or so data points, saying "Coach X's playoff record is slightly below average", or "Coach X's playoff record is neither outstanding, nor above average, nor even average", has as much relevance as saying "Coach X's playoff record is a wheel of cheddar cheese". The terms don't mean anything, because with so few data points, you literally can't have much confidence as to what you are measuring. Now, if you had the DVOA measurements, or some sort of play by play measurement, for all the playoff games, for all these coaches, THEN you might begin to generate enough data points to render the terms "above average", "below average", and "average" meaningful. Until then, you are just flipping a coin, and calling it analysis.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
How about this: Dungy's playoff record is less than .500? That average is .500?
That's all I am saying. His playoff results-record-accomplishments are less than the average (.500).
You can complain that the sample size is too small, that it's unfair to measure a coach's playoff record after only 11 playoff seasons. Life's unfair.
One thing we do agree on: Dungy's playoff career should not contribute to his Hall of Fame case. You think so because it was too short to be meaningful, perhaps because you think all playoff careers are without meaning. I think so because he lost more playoff games than he won, because I know that his 9-10 is a less than average record.
That leaves regular season coaching, historical firsts, innovations, and his accomplishments as an assistant coach for building his case. There's plenty to make a case there. Go for it: Tony Dungy may be one of the most accomplished regular season coaches ever!
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
No, "fair" or "unfair" has nothing to do with it. Perhaps I was wrong in assuming that the interest here was in observing things that gave us sound insight as to which coaches should be in the Hall of Fame, or the mistake was in thinking that induction in the Hall was based upon accomplishment. The won-loss record over 20 games or so, even playoff games (actually, especially playoff games), does not give us insight into these issues, and has as much chance of misleading the inquiry as informing it. If you think using metrics which have as much chance of obscuring that which is being sought as illuminating it, fine, just say so. We may as well measure the length of pinky fingers, and put the coaches with the longest ones in! The reality is that the w-l record in playoff games is not something that we can say with any confidence is any coach's "accomplishment". It is pointless, but that seems to be the selection process favored by many for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Let's just rename it the Pointless Pro Football Hall of Fame, so there is no mistake about how it was decided who is honored there.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The reality is that the w-l record in playoff games is not something that we can say with any confidence is any coach's "accomplishment".
That may be the single most inane FO comment in years.
The only thing of value that a coach is trying (with his team) to accomplish in a playoff game is a win, don't you think?
Or are you blaming other coaches or the players, or bad refs or weather, saying that the subpar record wasn't even partly Dungy's responsibility? Peyton, is that you?!?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
No, because I'm not the sort of half-wit who places blame without substantial evidence. That would be you, and an uncivil half-wit at that. Congratulations.
Look, you have established, beyond all doubt, that you are just dumb enough to think that a tiny number of data points allows you to speak with confidence as to what produced those data points, thus making it possible for you to say that those data points are a single individual's "accomplishment". You probably thought the octopus "accomplished" something by picking World Cup soccer game winners, too.
If you are going the route of insults, you may want to first demonstrate more cognitive ability than an octopus. Tell ya' what; in the future I'll be happy to not engage with you, if you will do the same with me.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Agree that 20 is a small sample size, so any statement regarding the quality of performance must be made with caution. However, Dungy is number 12 in number of playoff games coached, his win pct. is .474. Only one coach in the 11 above him has a poorer percentage, and only 3 of the next 11 were worse.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
To be precise: Any statement regarding quality of performance must be made with caution. Any statement regarding quality of results actually achieved can be made with no need for caution. The results are 100% a matter of record, no sampling required. And as you point out, the quality of Dungy's results is less than you would expect.
You implicitly make a very good point, one that I had not considered. While Dungy is only slightly subpar when compared to all playoff coaches, he is well below the standard set by other coaches with as many playoff appearances or playoff games as he has. That is, while his results were only slightly worse than the typical playoff coach, they were much worse than coaches of teams that got to the playoffs year after year after year.
No one was more successful at getting a team to the playoffs than Tony Dungy. Once in the playoffs, his results were either slightly below his peers, or badly below them, depending on who you think are his peers.
No matter. George Allen is in the Hall of Fame with similar playoff issues. Dungy can (I think should) get in on his regular season record and other factors.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
You would only have such expectations if you are also of the mindset that flipping a coin 20 times, over many experiments, would provide wildly divergent results, was a surprising fact.
You contuinue to think that the w-l record over a tiny number of games can be called, in a causal sense, a "coach's achievement". This is only a little nore sensible than saying the weather in Miami when the Colts played the Bears was Dungy's and Lovie Smith's achievement.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I can say with 100% certainty that Tony Dungy spent zero time and effort preparing the weather in Miami. Nor is he a wheel of cheese, in case you were going to suggest that.
On the other hand, he spent his entire coaching career preparing his team to try to win games. It was his job, and it does matter. If it matters in the regular season, it matters at least as much in the playoffs. So, yes, there is a casual connection between coaching in the playoffs and wins and losses in the playoffs. Either that, or coaching doesn't matter, and Dungy is just a lucky guy randomly chosen to coach a good team.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Yes, and you can have very little confidence as to whether that rank is the result of performance, or random chance. Why on earth would you wish to inquire as to who accomplished the most or performed the best at anything, by using a metric which has such a high likelihood to be as meaningful as a coin flip?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I think you're right about that, to an extent. There is something to it, though, as a team will face better opponents in the playoffs than they will in the regular season. So a team that has a stellar regular season record but a poor postseason record may just be unlucky, or it may be very good at beating up on average competition but can't beat above average competition.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
He underachieved in Tampa? Tampa? The worst franchise in NFL history that he totally rebuilt from scratch? Under achieved? Tampa the team he took to within one bad call of the Super Bowl with Shawn King as his QB?
He underachieved because he lost 4 road playoff games to Brett Favre, Kurt Warner and McNabb?
Do you want to rethink that statement?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
DZ, you know I agree with you on most things, but you brought up one of the most misconcieved notions in the NFL: The Bert Emmanuel Call.
First off, it was the right call at the time. However, even if Bill Carollo gave the completion, it would have been 4th and 5 around the 20. Instead, it was 4th and 15 from the 30. It didn't decide the game. Tampa wouldn't have automatically won if the call was not reversed.
Either way, the defensive performance in that game is up there with the best in the history of the NFL. That was the best defensive performance against the Greatest Show on Turf, not the Pats in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The call was correct, but the rule was bad, so bad they had to change it.
As for it's effect on the game, that's debateable.
The larger point still holds true. Dungy did not underachieve in any way shape or form in Tampa
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Yeah, it's easy to think he did given that Gruden came in and immediately won a Super Bowl. But Gruden came into a dominant defense, imported a mediocre offense and rode that to the Super Bowl. He subsequently did very little with that team.
Dungy on the other hand came into a team that was hands down the worst-run franchise over the previous 15 years, and it turned into a perennial contender. Not only that, he constructed a defense that was so dominant that it was (and still is) widely copied around the league, and that defense even managed to hold the Greatest Show on Turf in its prime, in St Louis to 11 points. That's insane.
Monte Kiffin deserves some of the credit there, of course, but he was still working under and for Dungy.
In that respect, if Dungy barely gets to the Hall of Fame because of his accomplishments in Tampa and Indianapolis, how can we then argue that Kiffin should get in when most of Kiffin's remuse is based on what happened when he was with Dungy - while what Dungy did in Tampa alone isn't good enough for the Hall?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I'll tell you what Gruden did that nobody else could have done--he happened to play his old team in the SB, a team whosae offense he knew intimately, and whose audibles were unchanged from the year before when Gruden coached them. Gruden played the Gannon role in practices because he knew his quirks, mannerisms, and audibles.
Holy crap--they might not have won if they had faced anybody else, OR if Callahan had the brains the change s few things.
(this is further support for Dungy, BTW. Not to take anything away from Chuckie; I think he's a good coach, but he happened to fallinto the absolute perfect situation inhis biggest game ever. Talk about freak luck, Will Allen!)
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
That conveniently ignores the fact the Bucs dominated the 49ers and Eagles in the playoffs.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
That would be the 49ers team that had the week before had to come back from one of the largest deficits in playoff history?
I mean, they were okay, but they started slow against the Bucs, and never really got out of first gear - it just seemed like they were still feeling the effects of the previous week's struggle
I dunno, that feels like I'm doing down that Buccaneer team, which I'm not trying to, but holding up the win over the 9ers isn't doing them any favours
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
No, the win over the 49ers isn't a great win. The win over the Eagles was, however. Most Bucs fans and even the players see that win as more important than the actual Super Bowl win, largely because the Eagles had beaten the Bucs in the playoffs the two prior years.
Plus, the twelve wins in the regular season count for something.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
That would be a 49ers team that had a bucnh of terrible injuries to its cornerbacks. They were signing guys off the street (a young Joselio Hanson was one if I remember correctly) and starting them in the divisional round of the playoffs that weekend. Not ideal. They couldn't cover a thing, Tampa receivers were uncovering immediately off the line and the 49ers never stood a chance.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I would probably guess that the 3 ints by Garcia and the 4 sacks by the Bucs helped too.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The writers seem to have missed out Clark Shaugnessy. He designed the T formation which proceeded to dominate the league for years. Apparently the Bears were still using the defensive system he devised forty years after he left, despite the fact that he had no real reputation for being a defensive mind.
The Bears beat the Skins 73-0 using his offense two games after they had lost to the same team without Shaugnessy's system. Shaugnessy couldn't be at the championship game so he devised two plays from the Bears previous formation to ascertain whether or not the defense was the same as the one they had played previously. Apparently it was obvious after the first play that the defense was the same and so the Bears went to the T formation for the next play and scored from seventy yards out. I have no idea if this was the first instance of scripting plays or not but I have seen him credited with this innovation.
If winning championships counts then he should be in. If evolving the game counts then he should be in. Basically he should be in but he doesn't even get a mention in the article.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Shaughnessy is in the college HOF. He was only a head coach in the NFL for 2 seasons, and he didn't win a championship as a head coach. Hard to believe the NFL HOF would put in a man as a coach who was only a head coach for two years.
Plus, he left the NFL in 1962 or so according to his wikipedia page. That's 48 years ago...meaning his contemporaries and the generation after him didn't believe he was worthy of the NFL HOF. You want writers talking about recent guys to mention Clark Shaughnessy, who hadn't been a head coach in the NFL since 1949?
Now, the innovation track record is certainly there. The wikipage adds to what Jimmy already mentioned
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clark_Shaughnessy
I could see the HOF creating an Innovators "wing" and celebrating the minds that had a lasting impact on the game. That would help showcase people who deserve to be showcased. Think most would agree that Coryell would belong there. Would vote for Shaughnessy too after tonight's educational experience...though he's already in the college HOF with more than 25 years as a head coach at that level.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I knew he had a long standing association with the Bears and had coached elsewhere in the NFL, I didn't realise how short his time as a head coach was (or even officially as a coordinator). The wiki page indicates that he was the de facto offensive coordinator for quite a while in Chicago (ie the period in which they won four titles) and then got to the NFL championship game where his Rams team got beaten in a downpour. He fell out with the owner but the team he put together went on to win two titles under Joe Stydahar (HOF Bears lineman who played for years in the Shaugnessy's T Formation).
It now seems very strange for a college coach to have been consulting for an NFL team (and designing their offense and defense) but this may have been due to the relative statures of the game at the time.
I like your idea of an innovators HOF. It seems to me that Shaugnessy would definitely be in it, without the changes he introduced the game would look very different.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
As a Bronco's fan I'm biased, but here is my thought about Reeves. I don't think you can ding him because the Broncos won after he left, because enough had changed by that time that it wasn't his team. You have Wade Phillips coming in and then Shanahan took over. There was enough personel turn over and maturing by number 7, that I can't hold that against Reeves.
Although I do, and always will hold the Maddox pick against him.
What about Shanahan? Where do you guys come down on him? I'm of the mind that we should see what he does in Washington, but he'll probably get in.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The combined passing performances of Dan Reeves' Super Bowl opponents while at Denver:
64-86 (74.4%), 925 yards, 12 TDs, 1 INT, Passer Rating of 143.6
I always felt he took extremely flawed teams farther than they should have gone (his teams lost 14 games and tied once in those 3 seasons).
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Shanahan won two Super Bowls. There are two guys who have done that as a head coach who aren't in the Hall.
Tom Flores - (12 seasons, 5 winning records)
Jimmy Johnson - (9 seasons, 6 winning records)
Mike Shanahan - (16 seasons (and counting), 9 winning records)
Shanahan's total resume is clearly stronger than either of them, so I except he'll be in the Hall of Fame.
As far as the Hall of Very Good goes...Well, based on my subjective evaluation, he was the best coach of the last fifteen years except for Belichick and Parcells, both of whom are no-brain Hall of Famers (is Parcells already in?). Certainly I rank him ahead of the Dungy-Cowher-Schottenheimer crowd of solid "during the week" coaches and game day cowards.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
There's also Seifert.
11 years (8 winning seasons)
Just as a refresher, here's his record in SF: 14-2 (3-0), 14-2 (1-1), 10-6, 14-2 (1-1), 10-6 (1-1), 13-3 (3-0), 11-5 (0-1), 12-4 (1-1).
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Let's see what 'magic' Shanahan works at Washington before we elect him to the HoF. We can excuse his time at the Raiders as an aberration but his time in Denver was really quite average after the first four years and Super Bowl wins - only two seasons in ten with more than 10 wins.
Let's see if he can build Washington into a great team. If he can do that then he'll have succeeded where a HoF coach in Joe Gibbs failed.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Whoops. I always forget that Walsh retired before the '89 Super Bowl.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
You should take this bit out:
When I take my kid to the bust room in Canton, I want to point and say: "Look, he threw for 40,000 yards. Look, he was the head coach for 4 Super Bowl teams. Look, he ran for 12,000 yards." Not, "Look, he sat in a press box with a headset and called plays, except when he was overruled by his boss."
And replace it with this bit:
When I take my kid to the bust room in Canton, I want to point and say: "Look, read the plaques and get back to when you're done, i'll be in the car park smoking bongs."
or better yet:
"When I show my kid to the HoF website, I want to point and say: "LOOK, NUMBERS AND ACCUMULATED STATISTICS!!"
Cos if you're just repeating stat lines, why bother with the statues?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The future HOF will be a 3D holographic image projected into our homes. We can "visit" during halftimes.
Oh crap, that means when I visit the 70s I'll have Terry Bradshaw, or a horrible, leering, self-absorbed Skeletor facsimile, in my family room. Oh God, make me blind and deaf before that happens!!!
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
What's Coryell's VORC? He went to two dysfunctional underachieving franchises in the pre salary cap era when owners could (and did) cut corners on roster costs. He made both of those franchises contenders almost instantly and when he left they regressed to their traditional mediocrity almost as quickly.
I'm not knocking Bill Walsh but if Coryell had had SF's owners he wouldn't have lost Fred Dean & John Jefferson over pay disputes, he would have been more able to hire free agents and assistants & he might already be in the HOF.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Even though I am a Steelers fan, I am totally neutral on the HOF worthiness of Cowher. I do think, however, he deserves some credit for identifying good assistant coaches/coordinators and 'nurturing' them/bringing them along/allowing them to do their jobs/something like that. Finding good coordinators and letting them coordinate is, in my mind, one of the top two or three responsibilities of the head coach, and Cowher did do a very good job of that. Does it put him in the Hall of Fame? Not really, but credit where due.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
My Colts homerism forces me to put Dungy, Tom Moore, and Howard Mudd in the Hall of Fame. Those guys were instrumental to the success of arguably one of the great dynasties in NFL history.
While we're at it, let's talk GMs. If Bill Polian doesn't get in, they should just say "No GMs", because no one in football has a better resume than him.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I will refute your lame points with the following:
.
.
.
.
(okay, that about sums up my case.)
Mudd's interesting--long-time coach, but I only know of his last decade or so, and I think Manning had a lot to do with the OL having low sack numbers, and the RBs doing okay. I adore him, but I suspect one easy argument to makde to ding these guys would be "well, if he was so damn good, why was he not promoted to OC?" For me, the answer is "He knew what he was good at, what he loved, and stuck with it. No shame in that. And ther is often shame and ridicule when one tries to reach too far and fails at the next level up."
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Here's my total Steelers homer pitch for Cowher:
He did a great job of envisioning his team, and making sure all the cogs were in place to make it go. Yes, he had a run of good coordinators after good coordinators. Finding them, training them, and delegating to them was his job. Yes, the Rooney run front office supplied him with talent, but he turned that talent into more wins the years he was coaching than any other coach (I think). He was also a perfect fit for the Steelers story. He built his team around pounding the rock, questionable quarterbacking, and suffocating defense. He's a hometown boy (my dad lives near his childhood home), he clearly loved his wive and loves his kids. His goal as a coach wasn't to win, it was to win for his owners, and to win for his city. Walking off the field after his Superbowl loss is as much a part of his legacy as his win. He might not have been the "best" coach, when it came to drawing up X's and O's, but he was a "great" who oversaw a great machine.
I also don't think he's done yet. It would not shock me at all to see him named the next HC of the Panthers.
I'm not sure if I think he deserves a spot or not, but if I did, that's the argument I'd make.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
JIM JOHNSON. Dammit.
Hail Hydra!
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
For me coach and coordinator hall of fame credentials come down to one thing only; how they managed the clock.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
So I take it Herm Edwards will be forced to buy a ticket to get in?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Edwards, Reid, Holmgren will all get the old coach discount if they come as a group, but none of those guys get in with out buying a ticket.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I just don't see any of this as very valuable. No real grasp of how many coaches you want in. A childish notion of the importance of playoff success. A complete misunderstanding of the evolution of the sport, the role of coaching and particularly how context dependent it is.
Its just all so muddle headed and unprincipled. This is a statistical analysis site, how about some statistical analysis...
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I was reminded of how Dungy’s low-key approach was considered something revolutionary when he took over the Bucs, and then the Colts.
I'm sure that Dungy would immediately tell you that he took that approach from Chuck Noll.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Good one! That's very low-key of him to do that..... and joking or not, you're probably right.
He has repeatedly said that to him using profanity and yelling are signs of a lack of intelligence. Then when I walk across the living room and pierce the bleeding soles of my feet with the thousands of Lego bits my kids leave around and I scream and curse and rant, and then I think to myself what Dungy would do.... He'd sit them down calmly and somehow guilt them into cleaning up, then go out there and win. And they'd love him for it. Whereas with me, I'd try it and they'd do what they usually do: shoot Nerf darts at my ass....
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
In the end I agree with this:
"I want Marty in there. I don’t feel safe in an America where a guy with 200 career wins doesn’t get in the Hall of Fame."
It's not like Marty coasted. We don't look at him as a guy, like possibly Seifert, who got a huge leg up from the work of others. Marty undertook 4 rebuilding projects, abject rebuilding projects, and turned them all into perennial winners. (Except DC of course, but he wasn't given a chance in DC: and even in DC he did exactly his normal job, the one season he was there.)
His "value over replacement coach" has got to be very high. You look at teams the few years before he got there and after he left, and Marty made a huge impact.
He stays out of the Hall because Lin Elliot missed 3 FGs in 1995? Because Earnest Byner fumbled at the 1 in 1987? Because Marlon Mcree fumbled in 2006? Ridiculous.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Plus doesn't Marty have a coaching tree of his own? For example, isn't Cowher one of Marty's guys?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Marty ... I'd put him in there. His year-in/year-out record was excellent. He got players playing hard and overachieving. If you're mediocre and you come up against the best in the playoffs then you're always going to struggle.
IIRC he always took over teams and made them better; and after he left they got worse. Isn't the job of the coach to maximise the achievements of the talents you have.
Most importantly, if I were a NFL owner and I had a struggling franchise; it would either be him or Parcells that are top two on my list to turn the franchise's fortunes around.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Earl Weaver's pitching coach was George Bamberger. His mediocre record as manager of the Brewers and Mets (career record of 458-478) ensures that he'll never get into the baseball HOF. And it's this Peter Principle issue that makes me skeptical of the HOF credentials of any assistant.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Anyone want to build a "Hall of Fame Standards" type statistic ala Bill James for NFL coaches? Here's a list of coaches who have been enshrined from the last few decades (figuring standards were so different in the early years that it's tough to make comparisons):
Name...year enshrined...years as head coach
Weeb Ewbank 1978 (1954-1973)
Sid Gillman 1983 (1955-1974 with a couple of years off)
Tom Landry 1990 (1960-1988)
Chuck Noll 1993 (1969-1991)
Bill Walsh 1993 (1979-1988)
Bud Grant 1994 (1957-1983, counting CFL)
Joe Gibbs 1996 (1981-1992, 2004-2007)
Don Shula 1997 (1963-1995)
Marv Levy 2001 (1973-1997 counting CFL/USFL)
George Allen 2002 (1966-1977, plus 2 years in USFL)
Hank Stram 2003 (1960-1977)
John Madden 2006 (1969-1978, possibly non-coaching considerations)
That's a dozen guys inducted from the late 70's onward. Note that there is a Dan Reeves in the Hall, but that's an owner from an earlier era. There are coaches from earlier eras too, just wanted to stick with the most recent framework since a lot of the coaches in the article/discussion were contemporaries with the many recent names on the list.
Looks like a definite prioritizing for:
A: winning championships
B: longevity if you didn't win many championships
What is the approximate relationship?:
xxx points for winning a Super Bowl (or league championship pre-SB)
xxx points for getting to but not winning the Super Bowl
xxx points for each year as an NFL head coach
xxx points (if any) for additional years in CFL/USFL (it's the "Pro Football" HOF)
xxx points (if any) for each year as an assistant
xxx points (if any) if you innovated something but didn't win championships
Seems like the group could come up with something reasonable in a "wisdom of the crowds" kind of way for what the de facto standards have been, then see who of the nominees best qualify for the standard (not just beating the worst guy in there, but truly belonging amidst the standard).
Personally, I like weighting championships at the expense of regular season wins. I know the playoff sample size is smaller. But, the purpose of having a season is to determine a champion. Regular season wins are important only in the sense that they give you a better "position" in the postseason to make a run at a championship. Don't want to celebrate guys who couldn't go the distance even with favorable position...unless they coached A LONG, LONG time. Gotta respect longevity of course.
Shouldn't the general standards be understood before jumping into a debate like this? What have the standards been?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The NFL HOF has pretty much zero standards. You can try to build standards but era really matters. It just doesn't seem likely in the modern era you are going to see that many Shula, Landry type careers. Modern coaches seem much more fungible. See how modern teams managed to survive loses of coaches like Dungy and Cowher. Heck even the Rams made it back to the Super Bowl with Martz. The infrastructure around the front office has change to the point coaches rarely have the control these old guard did and teams clearly seem to have less loyalty to their surrounding coaching staffs and assistance these days. Many but not all modern NFL franchises seem to be built such that the coaching staff is part, but not the end all to football operations. Because of it, it's hard to know where to give and take credit coaching wise.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Just a note on longevity in general:
I agree it is important, but when considering a case like Dungy's it's also necessary to note that he was not even interviewed for many years because of his race. I think that's an important detail to consider. His inability to even get interviewed for a head coaching job became a national story in the early 90s.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Well, 5-6 hours later and nobody's come up with a scoring system. I eyeballed an estimate and saw how well it correlated. Not saying this is my preferred scoring. Just trying to rank how the Hall seemed to be evaluating people.
15 points for a Super Bowl win or League Title pre-SB
5 points for a SB loss (winning your conference but not the SB)
1 point for each year as a head coach
0 points for the other things I mentioned
The guys who are in:
Chuck Noll 83 points
Don Shula 83 points
Tom Landry 74 points
Joe Gibbs 66 points
Weeb Eubank 65 points
Hank Stram 62 points
Bill Walsh 55 points
Bud Grant 38 points
Marv Levy 37 points
Sid Gillman 33 points (but innovation points)
John Madden 25 points (possibly "contribution to the game" points)
George Allen 17 points (and seemingly inexplicable)
50 and above would seem to be a lock. the guys at 37-38 were referenced in the article above by kind of backing their way in with multiple Super Bowl losses. So, that's a borderline range but apparently acceptable if you coached at least 17-18 years AND made it the SB multiple times. To me we have a gray area in the 40-45 range where we'll see some of the other nominees show up. Once you're at 33 or below, you need some bonus style points to get in. Does anyone have any idea what George Allen's style points are? Looks like the baseball equivalent of some of the pretenders who got in because they're buddies were on the selection committee way back when.
So, using that as a temporary guide pending more discussion, here's what I get for some of the names being bandied about:
Bill Parcells 54 points
Dan Reeves 43 points
Tom Flores 42 points
Mike Holmgren 42 points
George Seifert 41 points
Bill Cowher 35 points
Dick Vermeil 35 points
Tony Dungy 28 points
Chuck Knox 22 points
Marty Schottenheimer 21 points
Don Coryell 14 points
Dick LeBeau just got in as an assistant with 35 years total of coaching in the NFL (3 as a head coach, compiling a 12-33 record...the other 32 as an assistant). Don't really want to get into assistants. That would seem to be the baseline. If you can coach 35 years as an assistant, with high profile success as an assistant, you'll barely get in!
So, using this rudimentary approach, the debate is basically whether or not 50 and above deserve to be automatic...or 40 and above deserve to be automatic. The selectors have yet to put somebody in the 40's in. You either broke 50, or you settled in the high 30's with a lot of SB losses.
By this measure...Dungy isn't there yet...Schottenheimer is way off...and Coryell isn't close. Now, if George Allen somehow becomes the baseline for future consideration, we could have a zillion coaches making claims. If it stays the way it is, those guys will need some big time style points to make it. Dungy has his landmark victory. Coryell has a reputation as an innovator, but I agree with the theory that he's getting a lot of credit for stuff that should be spread around better.
Regarding Schottenheimer...his playoff record is 5-13. The only playoff losers in the HOF are Gillman at 1-5 (bonus style points) and George Allen at 2-7 (inexplicable). Everybody else had a winning playoff record. Among the highlights: Gibbs 17-7, Walsh 10-4, Noll 16-8. Amazingly, Schottenheimer went 0-4 entering the playoffs in his most recent visits with records of 13-3, 13-3, 12-4, and 14-2. Didn't get all the details. You have to assume that's mostly a bye week and home field, yet he still couldn't win once straight up during that stretch with teams of that caliber and the superior seed perks.
The 200 regular season wins is impressive. There's just no "similarity score" guy in the HOF right now who had that kind of career...a ton of regular season wins but no appearances in Super Bowls. The selectors seem to be saying that the Hall of Fame is for people who earned fame when the games were most important (with the exception of Allen). Schottenheimer doesn't shine in that way of looking at it. Using career wins, career won-lost percentage, or even the Fibonacci Win Scores from Bill James would celebrate his career differently. HOF is saying you gotta get to the Super Bowl...
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I just can't buy into a system im which a coach, like Belichik, scores significantly better because his kicker made two or three long, end of game, field goals. It just doesn't have any relationship, or extremely little relationship, to coaching quality. Dan Reeves did not become a much better coach, and Denny Green a much poorer one, when Gary Anderson missed his first field goal in two years, at the end of regulation in the 1998 NFC Championship Game. Chuck Knox did not become a poorer coach, and Bud Grant a better one, when a chip shot field goal by the Rams got blocked in an NFC Championship Game, took a perfect bounce, and thus was able to be returned 90 yards for a touchdown by the Vikings. It goes on and on, and the problem with tiny sample sizes is that things don't even out over time.
I'm not disputing the pattern you have detected, but I think it merely is another illustration of how senseless the Pro Football Hall of Fame selection process is.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Except from what I understand the way Belichick coached the Patriots set Vinatieri up to be successful in those situations. So I believe it has everything to do with coaching quality.
It wasn't the usual "Ok Adam, imagine this is a game-winning kick for the Super Bowl and if you make it everybody can go home early from practice" ...
It was "Ok boys, scores are tied, we're running the two minute offense with 1min32 left on the clock, you're at your own 30 yard line and you have all three timeouts left. We just need to get in field goal range and Adam you're going to have to make that kick. The clock's running as soon as you snap the ball".
Do you think that Belichick just got lucky when he successfully replaced Vinatieri with rookie Gostkowski; or when Matt Cassell who hadn't played since high school stepped in and replaced Tom Brady? I don't.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I think we are severely discounting regular season wins in this evaluation. While I understand that it would be easy to compile wins like baseball players compile hits and homers, we should consider "great years" of 12+ wins into the equation. A lot of the coaches towards the bottom of these lists are snakebit to say the least, but it shouldn't take away from their ability to do more with less.
Look at Bill Parcells. He had two similar situations in New York and New England where he took over some hopeless teams and was able to build championship-calibre teams by stockpiling talent and maximizing the production of a finished product. (Three similar situations if you consider the futility of the Kotite-era Jets produced a large collection of early round picks)
The worst thing that could have happened to him in Dallas was to be as successful as he was in his first season. He was not able to accumulate the same talent in the draft because he was picking later in the round. Those Dallas teams sputtered in mediocrity(though contended) because of it.
Coaches that immediately win by maximizing talents of a good(but fatally flawed) team are rewarded with less talent than if they had been so-so for a few years and gathered their strength for longer runs through the playoffs later on. Why should we penalize these coaches for teaching losers how to win, as opposed to teaching winners how to win more.
I would say ABSOLUTELY yes for Dungy and Cowher, yes for Marty(though it wouldn't kill me if he didn't make it), no for Reeves and Holmgren.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Don't think we're "penalizing" or "discounting" Jim. You don't get a Super Bowl ring for winning right away with a team that had been losing. It speaks well of your abilities. But, they don't give rings for that. You don't get to hold up a trophy for that. The HOF's past standards suggest their basically giving out "career rings" in the form of a statue to coaches who had postseason success. More on that in the post below...
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Appreciate your passion on the point Will. But, it's not called the "Hall of Quality." And, it's not called the "Hall of Regular Season Effectiveness." To this point, the selectors have determined that "Hall of Fame" refers to the most accomplished coaches in terms of championship performance. This is not a controversial view in my opinion. Nobody's saying people who DON'T get in lack quality. They're only allowing people in who showed a combination of longevity and getting to the Super Bowl, or very quick intense Super Bowl success in a shorter career (with the exception of George Allen, who now makes a few dozen coaches seem deserving). Start your own museum if you don't think it's fair (lol).
It's kind of like Super Bowl rings. You don't get a bracelet if you just missed the Super Bowl, or a nice tie clip if you lost a close game in the playoffs, or cuff links if your guy fumbled right when you were on the verge of winning. The final score goes in the books, then the spoils go to the people who won. A berth in the Hall of Fame is a spoil that goes to the winners of the games that mattered most.
Regarding Schottenheimer in the playoffs, we have to be careful thinking he came out on the short end of coin flips. That may be true. But, he was notorious for turning clear advantages where he was supposed to win comfortably into coin flips.
Schottenheimer teams when favored by more than a field goal:
2006: San Diego -5 lost to New England 24-21
2004: San Diego -7 lost to NYJ 20-17 in OT (down 17-7 in 4th)
1995: K. City -10.5 lost to Indianapolis 10-7
1993: K. City -7 beat Pittsburgh 27-24
1991: K. City -5.5 beat Oakland 10-6
1987: Cleveland -8.5 beat Indianapolis 38-21 (yay, one success)
1986: Cleveland -7.5 beat the NYJ 23-20
1985: Cleveland -3.5 lost to Denver 20-23
That's eight games (all at home) where a Schottenheimer team was perceived to have "non coin flip" advantages over their opponent. They failed to reach expectations in seven of the eight games. They went 4-4 straight up, with three of the victories coming by 3-3-4 points. Schottenheimer turned edges into coin flips. That's a point against him.
Sure, it's only eight games...but it's a damning consistency that suggests meaning rather than "hey, anything can happen in eight playoff games where you're a clear favorite on your home field." It may have been bad luck for Schottenheimer that he was doing this during an era when home favorites were mostly obliterating people. The struggles stuck out like a sore thumb at the time.
Schottenheimer had two games heads up with Levy's Bills. Both on the road:
1993: K. City (+3) lost at Buffalo 30-13
1991: K. City (+11) lost at Buffalo 37-14
The main reason sample size can become an issue for Schottenheimer is because he was off the charts horrible by postseason standards of HOF nominees...so you HAVE to focus on the regular season to make his case.
Now, 200 wins is great. Somebody wants to start a 200-win club and celebrate anyone who makes it? I'm all for that. I can even see making that a formal qualification if the Hall makes that determination...the way the LPGA has formal HOF qualifications based on wins. George Allen had 116 regular season wins. John Madden had 103. Will Walsh had 92. 200 is rarefied air. It's not currently a formal qualification, and the HOF has determined that they're celebrating postseason achievement with longevity mixed in. Have a 200-win wing (or even a 150 wing if there's a concern that some regular season success stories aren't being told). Don't tell the HOF they don't know what fame is. It's their museum.
It occurred to me overnight that simply making the "Super Bowl loss" worth 10 points instead of 5 points would push Grant and Levy over 50 points, and pretty much set 50 points as a baseline standard in the report I threw together last night before bed. They each pick up 20 more points that way (four SB losses), and slide over 50. Doesn't make any other meaningful changes in the standings...and it arguably better captures how the HOF has been making its gut determinations about who belongs.
Using that methodology with the contenders (15-10-1):
Reeves 63 (four losses)
Parcells 59
Holmgren 52
Flores 42
Seifert 41
Cowher 40
Vermeil 40
Jimmy Johnson 39 (left him out earlier, 2 SB wins, 9 years)
Dungy 28
Knox 22
Schottenheimer 21
Coryell 14
This strikes me as more accurate in terms of the general perceptions out there. Parcells and Holmgren are seen as very strong candidates by most. Flores and Seifert aren't in yet, but have their constituencies. Dungy didn't do enough to get in without style points.
I'm pretty confident with those as the defacto "unwritten" standards for coaches in the Hall of Fame as its now comprised:
15 points for a Super Bowl win or league title pre-SB
10 points for getting to the SB but losing
1 point for each year as a head coach
50 points very likely gets you in. Below 50 and you need style points in additional areas, or friends in the right places. George Allen is the extreme outlier that should probably be disregarded in terms of future standards. The HOF can't possibly put in everybody with a better resume than 12 years, no SB wins, 1 SB loss, 116 career wins, and a 2-7 playoff record.
Standards are subject to change of course. Schottenheimer could be the guy who changes them...necessitating adding career wins into the mix somehow, or multiplying longevity by 2 or something. Note that Dungy only gets to 41 points if you double longevity.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Any metric which puts Jimmy Johnson ahead of Tony Dungy is deeply flawed.
Should Johnson's one more ring so outweigh the fact that Dungy was clearly a better coach?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Was Dungy a clearly better coach?
Johnson built a beast a franchise in Dallas. So strong that even Barry Switzer won a Superbowl with them.
And he had a reasonable run with the Dolphins.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
In 9 seasons, Johnson went 80-64 (.560). He made the playoffs in 6 of 9 seasons
In 13 seasons Dungy went 139-69 (.668). He made the playoffs in 11 of 13 seasons.
Johnson had four seasons of 10 wins or more.
Dungy had 10 seasons of 10 wins or more.
Dungy also built two teams that other people took to Super Bowls the first year he was gone.
Johnson took over the 3-13 Cowboys, and had them in the playoffs in 3 years.
He took over the 9-7 Dolphins and had them in the playoffs in 2 years.
Dungy took over the 7-9 Bucs and had them in the playoffs in two years.
He took over the 6-10 Colts and had them in the playoffs the next year.
Jimmy Johnson's quarterbacks were Troy Aikman and Dan Marino.
Dungy's were Dilfer, Shawn King, Brad Johnson and Peyton Manning.
I'm sorry, but there's really no comparison here.
Does one more ring really make Jimmy Johnson's resume drastically better than Dungy's? No way.
Dungy was the better coach by a wide margin. He lost 5 more games than Johnson and coached 4 more seasons.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
It's interesting to note that you do not make a single mention of either coach's own playoff accomplishments. You have made a good case that Dungy was the better regular season coach. All of Dungy's own accomplishments that you list are from the regular season, including the very impressive making the playoffs 11 of 13 seasons.
Jimmy Johnson, on the other hand is obviously and far and away the more accomplished playoff coach, despite having fewer chances. If he had gone to the playoffs 6 more seasons and lost the first game each and every time (extremely unlikely) he would still have been more successful than Dungy. He was 9-4, only went one-and-done one time (with a 9-7 wildcard team) compared to Dungy's five (with teams averaging 12 wins!), had a better record in Super Bowls and Conference Championship games, and did all this with teams that - based on the regular season totals - had far less potential than Dungy's.
A fair evaluation of these two coaches would mention all the facts, and would conclude that Dungy did better on the "little stage" and Johnson did better on the "big stage".
Then everyone could decide for himself. Is it more important to win a playoff game, or a regular season game? Does it take more skill to win against a playoff opponent or a regular season opponent? Is the Hall about which coach lead teams with the most potential (as shown by the larger sample size regular season) or which got the most out of that potential (as shown by success in the most important games?)
In the end you need to look at the whole package. By failing to do so, you implicitly make the case that Dungy's playoff disappointments are too embarrassing to mention.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I'm of the opinion that Dungy fell into the same coaching trap as Marv Levy.
Love him or hate him here's what TMQ wrote about Levy back in August 2004 ...
TMQ has always admired Levy, one of the few accomplished coaches who really believes sportsmanship matters more than victory. If you could have any famous NFL coach to your house for dinner, you would do well to choose Levy: he's a warm human being in a profession where many of the successful are cold at heart. But Levy's admirable qualities may have held him back from Super Bowl triumph, as the farther you go in the playoffs, the more important game plans and psych-ups become. In that environment, win-at-all-cost types tend to prevail.
Levy won four AFC championships, but consider the incredible talent he had in the Jim Kelly-Bruce Smith-Thurman Thomas years -- 17 players from that era made the Pro Bowl, and several will make Canton. During the Kelly-Smith winning run, Levy's teams were 97-47 or .674 in the regular season but fell to 11-8 or .579 in the postseason. Through the regular season in 1990s, Levy was 14-2 against NFC East, during his Super Bowl appearances in the same period, Levy was 0-4 against the same division. At the Super Bowl pressure-cooker, that extra level of total determination seemed missing. Levy did not enforce Super Bowl curfews, for instance, relying on his players' good judgment not to go out and party; many went out and partied, and it showed on game day. During the regular season, Levy consistently beat Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs and Jimmy Johnson: at the Super Bowl, when game plans and psych-up tactics mean more, he was blanked by these three. In the regular season, Levy was king; in the postseason, one of the princes.
I'd say that's the same with Dungy. He taught his team an excellent system that conquered regular season opponents; but when they got to the playoffs he needed to add wrinkles and tactics to the gameplan that would just leave the opposition wondering. Not just roll out the same single set offense. Because in the playoffs you're playing the best of the best who are also motivated and organised.
I'm not sure whether the same theory would apply to Schottenheimer?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Oops. Dungy went one-and-done 6 times, with teams averaging only 11.5 wins. My bad.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Again, you are assuming that the smaller sample size is more telling than the larger. I don't think the crapshoot that is the playoffs is all that good a measure of a coach.
A coach should be able to prove he can have success in the post season (paging Jim Mora), but once a coach wins it all at least once, I'm not sure there's too much to learn from post season records.
I don't find the "one and done" thing compelling, largely because Dungy's teams were usually road underdogs in those games (a fact people forget). The 2005 loss stands out, but there were obviously extenuating circumstances.
It's not like Dungy and Johnson were close in the regular season and the post season is a tie breaker.
Dungy was a vastly superior coach in the regular season, and shouldn't be penalized for coaching flawed teams into the playoffs, only to have them lose on the road to better teams.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Let's be careful what we're calling "facts." Dungy did play four of those six "one and done" games on the road, but his team was favored in two of the road games according to the posted lines at covers.com.
In the one-and-done-years:
2000: Tampa Bay (-3) lost at Philadelphia 21-3
2001: Tampa Bay (+3.5) lost at Philadelphia 31-9
2002: Indianapolis (+6) lost at NYJ 41-0 (down 93-12 so far!)
2005: Indianapolis (-10) lost to Pittsburgh 21-18
2007: Indianapolis (-10.5) lost to San Diego 28-24
2008: Indianapolis (-1.5) lost at San Diego 23-17 in OT
Dungy was favored in four of the six games those years, yet went 0-6. His teams missed market expectations (which just had a full season to evaluate all the teams) by margins of 21, 18.5, 35, 13, 14.5, and 1.5 in regulation.
Why was TB favored at Philly in 2000? Among the possibilities, they had a better margin average in the regular season, while playing the tougher schedule. Well, there were probably other reasons too, but I was just looking at the numerical stuff.
Why was Indy favored at SD in 2008? They were a 12-4 Wildcard team playing an 8-8 divisional winner.
Now...we've cherrypicked the lowlights in a sample like this. Dungy went 4-0 against expectations in the Super Bowl year, which goes a long way toward counter-acting a bad history. I think the point many are making is that Dungy's playoff performances don't measure up to those of other HOF entrants or nominees...and his bad games were REALLY bad in a way that you normally don't see outside of Marty Schottenheimer. Losing outright TWICE as double digit home favorites really sticks out because it came on the heels of an era when the rested home favorites just obliterated everyone.
Agree with DZ that Dungy has great regular season credentials (though some might gripe with career length). Agree with Nat that you just can't gloss over the playoff failures...particularly if there's an illusion that Dungy was "coaching flawed teams into the playoffs, only to have them lose on the road to better teams." It was a mixed bag, and some of the bad stuff was really ugly. The best of the good things was historic. A mixed bag of extremes.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I dispute the line from the 2008 game at San Diego. The Colts were not favored on game day. That line was a pick all week, and the Chargers were favorites on game day.
The 2008 Colts v the 2008 Chargers was the classic tossup game and an example of why Dungy was such a great coach. The two teams were statistical equals (and pythagorean equals). Dungy managed to get 4 more wins out his squad than Turner got out of his. The Chargers won one of the flukiest games in memory as Scifres had the greatest game a punter could ever have.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Actually, I can't prove it, so I have to retract it. There are plenty of pages that list the game as a PK, but I can't find anything posting the Chargers as favorites.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
"In the end you need to look at the whole package. By failing to do so, you implicitly make the case that Dungy's playoff disappointments are too embarrassing to mention."
No.
1. I don't find them particularly disappointing given the context of the losses. The only truly terrible loss of the bunch came about 4 weeks after his son died. I don't hold that against him. Teams like the 2002, 2007 and 2008 Colts had huge glaring flaws and they skirted along all season on a mixture of luck and brilliant coaching. In none of those games did I feel like the loss could be blamed on the coach.
2. More importantly, I don't consider them particularly relevant. Winning a championship is important. However, I don't consider a coach that won 2 titles to be twice as good as a coach who won one. To me that's as much about luck as anything else. When comparing Dungy to Johnson, I don't see how playoff record is telling. Why should a coach be penalized for getting a bad team into the playoffs where they lose on the road in the first round?
I'd rather give the coach credit for squeezing extra wins out of his team in the regular season, and Dungy and Belichick out performed their Pythagorean win totals more than any coaches in the past 15 years.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
What I find fascinating about Schottenheimer's playoff record is that the teams that beat his teams went just 3-12 in future playoff weeks. The only teams to beat a Schottenheimer-coached team in the playoffs and go on to win another game that year were the 1991 Bills and the 1997 Broncos (who won twice, including the Super Bowl).
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Great stat Travis. Hadn't realized that. Schottenheimer underachieved expectations vs. a group of opponents who then didn't accomplish much in volume...
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
This method still puts gigantic weight on a tiny number of games, conference championships, which is better than simply Super Bowls, but only marginally. To illustrate, if the vagaries of the tuck rule are employed a little differently, or a long field goal at the end of regulation, in a snowstorm, is missed, Jon Gruden, with a .540 winning percentage has 36, or maybe even 41 points, instead of 26.
If you really are trying to identify who was best at this job, this is unsound. Do you really think Gruden would warrant a boost from 50% of what is needed, to 70%, or maybe even 80% of what is needed, if Brady had been ruled to have fumbled, or a long field goal in a blizzard had been missed?
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Schottenheimer is the real outlier, but even then, if you flip a coin 8 times, there is a 3% chance that you will only get 1 "success", which is not wildly unprobable, and if you flip a coin 5,000 times you will see at least one run of ten non-successes consecutively 99.3% of the time. In contrast, if we flip a coin 344 times (the total number if games that Schottenheimer coached in), the chance we would have more than 205 "successes" (the number of wins Schottenheimer had) is .0001. Which sample is a more sound method for investigating the question "How elite was Marty Schottenheimer's coaching?"? Also, you still haven't addresed the fact that the single elimination nature of the playoffs skew results, in terms of total playoff w-l record.
I did not know that "Hall of Fame" was a synonym "Hall for those who have metrics which are misperceived to empirically tell us who was the best at a given task".
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Why weren't the resumes of the coaches, w-l, playoffs, playoff record, SB wins appearances, pro bowl players listed? It's boring read without some statistical backup.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Quick Review:
The rudimentary system employed is not an attempt to rate the quality of coaches. It's an attempt to numerically capture the thinking process that HOF selectors appear to be using in their decision-making. They are CLEARLY, UNMISTAKEABLY, in a way that's IMPOSSIBLE TO MISS rating championships very heavily.
Bill Walsh only has 92 wins, he was in easily. Weeb Ewbank has a lifetime regular season record of 130-129-7. He's in thanks to three World Championships. Chuck Knox has 186 career regular season wins, a 186-147-1 career regular season record, but isn't on the tip of anyone's tongue because he never made it to a Super Bowl and only had a 7-11 playoff record.
Not saying the rudimentary system is a way to measure quality. The Hall of Fame has NEVER suggested they're picking only on quality at the expense of winning championships. They've chosen, based on what we can deduce from the people selected, to honor championships at the expense of regular season success.
So...
"Any metric which puts Jimmy Johnson ahead of Tony Dungy is deeply flawed...Dungy was clearly a better coach."
World Championships:
Johnson 2
Dungy 1
That's a metric. It's not a metric that ranks quality. It's a metric that ranks championships. The HOF has been honoring championships in volume, particularly when combined with longevity.
"If you really are trying to identify who was best at this job..."
NOBODY IS TRYING TO DO THIS, WILL YOU PLEASE STOP TYPING 100 DIFFERENT VARIATIONS OF THAT? They don't give a Super Bowl ring to the guys who were identified as the best or "elite" at their individual jobs, accounting for talent, luck, and a million other variables. They don't give HOF spots to coaches who were identified as the best at their job. They've been giving them to coaches who won multiple league championships, or conference championships if they won a lot of those but didn't quite win the league...mixed in apparently with consideration for longevity. After the fact...after the championships are won, they choose to honor some of the coaching champions.
"I did not know that "Hall of Fame" was a synonym "Hall for those who have metrics which are misperceived to empirically tell us who was the best at a given task"."
The Hall of Fame gets to decide for itself what it is. They have never at any point suggested anything about empirically ranking performance, adjusted for context, at a given task. What does that have to do with anything?
Appreciate your passion Will, but you're arguing about something that doesn't exist. The Hall isn't trying to identify who was best at their job.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
O.K.. Let's just count Google hits, had out the blazers, and be done with it. I think a lot of football fans, however, debate who should be in the Hall of Fame because they want to see the people who were, ya' know, the best at playing or coaching football, to be recognized for doing so. If you don't care about that, fine.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I understand your frustration, Will. If we only counted regular season wins and losses, Dungy's a shoe-in. If we counted playoff appearances, he's a shoe-in. But if we look at wins and losses in the "big ones" he's a sub-average coach.
Life's a bitch, isn't it?
The good news is that sometimes the HOF honors a coach for being excellent in the "little ones", if he also has some other large influence on or historic significance for the game. George Allen got in. Tony Dungy is a better candidate than Allen and ought to get in, too. (This from an old Redskins fan from way back.)
No one doubts that Dungy is an excellent day-in-and-day-out coach, one of the best. The question is whether he is "famous" enough in the HOF sense to deserve a place in the hall. When he gets in, it will be because he is like George Allen, not because he is like Vince Lombardi.
By the way, comparing playoff wins to Google Hits, Wheels of Cheese and the like makes you look really, really whiny. How about pumping up the good things that Dungy has done, rather than complaining that other people put a value on playoff wins? You would do us all a service by emphasizing Dungy's strengths and contributions to the game and thus making a good - and edifying - case for him. As it stands, with every post you're making the case that he ONLY gets in if we disregard the playoffs. That's not going to convince anyone that he deserves a place.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I'll note that I've written the word "Dungy" twice previously in this thread, one time in response to a mischracterization you made, and the other time in in facetious remark about he and Lovie Smith causing the weather. You, on the other hand, have written the man's names maybe a dozen or two dozen times. You seem to be obssessed with the fellow; did he brush off your autograph request or something?
Look, I've got no problem with whatever standard you want to employ for arguing for and against coaches' enshrinement, as long as you are not misrepresenting that standard as being empirically significant to the queation of whether the coach was among the best at the task, or, like Jeff, asserting that an institution, which says it's purpose is to recognize those who made an outstanding contribution, does not mean to include in that group those who were the best at their task.
Now, go throw some salt over your shoulder, knock on wood, rub your rabbit's foot, and be on your way!
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Also, from the Pro Football Hall of Fame Mission Statement...
"The Mission of the Pro Football Hall of Fame is:
To honor, preserve, educate and promote. . .
To honor individuals who have made outstanding contributions to professional football......"
In the interest of adopting your form of discourse, I will thusly ask, WILL YOU PLEASE DIAGRAM THIS STATEMENT, AND LOGICALLY EXPLAIN HOW SOMEONE COULD HAVE BEEN AMONG THE ELITE, BEST PERFORMING, COACHES OR PLAYERS IN THE NFL, WITHOUT HAVING MADE OUTSTANDING CONTRIBUTIONS TO PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL, OR IS IT THE CASE THAT THE SET OF HUMAN BEINGS YOU ARE REFERRING TO, WITH THE TERM "NOBODY", INCLUDE THE HUMAN BEINGS WHO RUN THE PRO FOOTBALL HALL OF FAME?
I am truly sorry to bother you with another variation. I am of the perhaps silly opinion that words have meaning and logical implications, especially when they are written by the people who founded the institution whose processes are being examined. I urgently await your no doubt enlightened instruction.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Please. Rather than shouting, why not just tell us about his outstanding contributions? How is the game better for Dungy's career? What fond memories do we have of him - not as Colts fans, but as fans of the game and of great games and great seasons? What remarkable achievements does he leave behind? What new strategies or new appreciation for the finer points of the game?
Yes, you raised a good question. How is it possible that Dungy amassed such a gaudy regular season record while influencing the game so little, and leaving so few positive memories in big games? Or did he influence the game more than some people think? Tell us about his contributions, his accomplishements. Don't tell us that he's great. We don't care. Tell us the great things that he did.
No one, not even Tony Dungy, deserves a place in the HOF for simply breathing, or even for having the potential to do great things. You have to make the case for him.
Go ahead. Make the case. Don't shout "HE'S ELITE!". We know you like him, and have a hard time explaining why. But try. Please. He deserves better than the case you're making.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Uh, nat, my dear fellow, I only text-shouted because Jeff indicated that was his preferred form of discourse, and I am nothing if not considerate in honoring others' preferences.
You really need to get over your Dungy obssession. My entire point was that, when trying to measure the quality of performance, using tiny sample sizes, at the expense of sample sizes which are ten times, or more, larger, is rationally unsound.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Uh, nat, my dear fellow, I only text-shouted because Jeff indicated that was his preferred form of discourse, and I am nothing if not considerate in honoring others' preferences.
You really need to get over your Dungy obssession. My entire point was that, when trying to measure the quality of performance, using tiny sample sizes, at the expense of sample sizes which are ten times, or more, larger, is rationally unsound.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Hasn't the case for Dungy's accomplishments beyond his record been made several times?
*Defensive innovator. We can argue who was more responsible for the Tampa 2 or just how profound an innovation it was, but you have to allow that he had a significant role in what became a popular defense.
*First African American coach to win a Super Bowl. He struggled to even get interviews for many years because of race, but grew to become one of the most influential voices in the NFL.
*Successful coaching tree. Two of his long time assistants have already been to Super Bowls.
*Helped alter perceptions about how a successful coach conducts himself.
I think those are weighty. I don't think anyone harped on them in this thread because they are intangible and widely known.
This argument is more about what should count more in Hall of Fame evaluation: regular season or post season records.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Show me in the mission statement where it says they're trying to identify who was best at their jobs...
Who makes the more "outstanding" contributions to professional football...coaches who lead their teams to championships, or coaches who win in the regular season but struggle in the playoffs?
Nobody's saying guys who are good in the regular season don't have any value. They obviously make contributions too. People remember the champions. People get emotional when remembering a home town champion. What football "means" in Green Bay, or Pittsburgh, or Dallas, or San Francisco is directly tied to the sustained excellence of those franchises during the reigns of their most successful coaches. That success is arguably one of the main cornerstones of the league's enduring national legacy. The Hall of Fame is choosing to honor coaching contributions to the legacy, and those who just fractionally missed making history for places like Buffalo or Minnesota. That's what they've chosen. It's their museum.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Jeff, if you wish to argue that one can be among the best players or coaches, over many years, without having made an outstanding contribution to the game, well, golly, you just go right ahead. There, you win.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Was it one of the 15 "most outstanding contributions" of the last 60 years?
A reasonable middle ground?
First, a suggestion for balancing regular season wins and postseason success: I would argue that when a team earns a first-round playoff bye, it should count as a playoff win for these purposes. It seems like most people who are really concerned with playoff success have that view because they view championships as the top priority, and accordingly believe that "proximity to winning a championship" is a strong criterion for judging the outcome of a season.
If this is the case, then I'm not sure why a coach whose team's performance over a full season brought a team to an automatic berth into the Divisional round should receive less credit than one whose berth hinged on performance in a single game. (If a team gets a first-round bye, wins its home playoff game, then loses in the Conference championship, has it really performed worse than a team that advanced equally far but won a Wild Card game in the process? We credit the former with only a pedestrian 1-1 postseason record, while the latter is credited as 2-1, even though they ended up in the same place and have reason to believe that the former's general ability was higher.)
Also, to Will, nat, and Jeff: I think this is a case where it's probably best if you agree to disagree. I don't see much of a disagreement over our capability to accurately evaluate a coach's true ability; rather, it's a disagreement over whether enshrinement in the Hall should primarily be about "true ability," or historical performance. It's a reasonable disagreement, and it seems unlikely to be resolved here.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Now, dagnabit, don't bring reasoned discourse into this thread! Who the hell do you think you are!!??
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Now, dagnabit, don't bring reasoned discourse into this thread! Who the hell do you think you are!!??
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
I like that idea dmb. It wouldn't influence the numbers above though because the rudimentary math is just based on years, SB wins, and SB losses. But, I can see extra consideration given for earning a bye in terms of evaluating how coaches performed in the playoffs. You're measuring the distance they marched in the playoffs after all.
For me though, I'd also consider double-counting home losses. You're supposed to win your home games. If you repeatedly earned home field advantage then didn't take advantage of it, that's a pretty big deal. Some of the coaching records are polluted by home road split (more home games than road games or vice versa). That might paint a fairer picture.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Yeah, I know it wouldn't influence the system you came up with, but you prosped it as descriptive, not prescriptive and I (as well as Will Allen, it would seem) am much more interested in the latter.
As for double-counting home losses, I'm not sure I'm convinced. A first-round seed losing the conference championship game would have an "adjusted playoff record" of 2-2; the mark of a wild card team bowing out at the same point would be 2-1. Basically, the two teams have "marched the same distance," but one coach is penalized because his performance was superior for a longer stretch of games. That doesn't really make sense to me.
I do think it's a fair point that home field advantage might influence how we should view some of these playoff records over a number of years, but I guess I see it more appropriate as qualitative, contextual information.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
What elements do you think should be in a prescriptive method dmb?
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Well, that's inherently subjective because it depends on what you think the Hall should be about; that's why I suggested that the disagreement between Will and nat was unlikely to reach any sort of resolution other than "agree to disagree."
I see the merits of both emphases that I mentioned above ("true ability" and "historical performance"). However, the latter is far, far easier to judge than the former, and not just because of the sample size issues that Will has been harping on. As with pretty much any other football-related evaluation, there are heaps of endogeneity problems ... definitively separating the effect of a coach from that of the owner, front office, player talent, coordinators, etc. is pretty much impossible, except for situations where the football operations are pretty much a one-man show. (You also have some somewhat arbitrary decisions to make, like whether a coach should be given credit for his coordinators.) So given these issues and the tendency for much of the media and public to be a little simplistic, it's no surprise that the emphasis has pretty much always been on historical performance ... so it doesn't really bother me. It's like coming to terms with the fact that you can pretty much guarantee that whoever wins the MVP will either be a QB or RB, even though that shouldn't necessarily be the case.
Personally, I'd like to see more of a balance between the two emphases, though I'm not as much of a "true ability" guy as Will, because of the issues mentioned above. Championships (and by association, playoff performance) matter, but I don't think they're everything. The successes of guys like Parcells and Schottenheimer, (or in the NBA, Larry Brown) who took over struggling organizations (plural) and made them into consistent winners, is easier to separate from their environment. I tend to be more sympathetic towards track records like those, regardless of championships won.
Really, the only area where I actually have strong opinions is the most qualitative one: effect on the game. As others have suggested, it would be nice to have a separate wing for people who introduced major innovations to the pro game ... but in the absence of it, I think it's important to recognize those people and their contributions. The effect of introducing and implementing a revolutionary idea in the league has widespread and long-lasting consequences, since so many teams' schemes will evolve from it. So I was perfectly happy to see LeBeau make it in; even though he was technically inducted as a player, I think it's pretty clear that it was really on the basis of his overall contribution to the league.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Sorry for the delay in getting back. Had to go look up endogeneity(lol).
Agree with most everything you said dmb. Probably why it's tough to find a middle ground between the extremes. If the HOF strongly emphasizes regular season W-L record at the expense of championships...Walsh's 92 wins won't register very well. If they focus on championships, it's possible to win 186 games (Knox), 190 games (Reeves), and 200 games (Schottenheimer) and not be in yet. It's like the HOF subjectively picked longevity over regular season wins on the assumption that they kind of go hand in hand. Then...it's championships weighing more heavily than longevity...but longevity can trump that at certain levels.
Only quibble would be with comparing Larry Brown to Schottenheimer. Both did improve their teams. Brown was able to win an NBA title with Detroit though, and get to the finals one other time with Detroit and once with Philly. He coached in pro hoops for 26 years, so that would be 61 on the 15-10-1 scale (well above the threshold). Plus, he left for about 10 years in the middle to coach in the colleges (where he also won a championship). I guess Schottenheimer kept hitting a ceiling, and that ceiling is at the crux of how to rate him as a HOF candidate.
I'm at least happy the discussion yielded de facto standards as they seem to exist at the present. Don't think I've seen them laid out for coaches in that fashion anywhere. Will give all of us a framework for future discussions as more inductions are made...
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Hey, no need to apologize ... there's not exactly a deadline (even informal) on FO comment responses. :) Also, sorry about the social science lingo ... this place tends to be a bit more stat-literate than most, and I guess I get carried away a bit sometimes.
It's true that Brown isn't a perfect analogy to Schottenheimer because of the former's championship. However, my understanding was that Brown had coached about 30 years in the pros, and didn't earn his professional championship until year 25 or so. And until he won that championship, he seemed to be regarded much the way Schottenheimer is now, after about 20 years as a pro coach without a ring. So I guess I should have specified "pre-championship Larry Brown," although it would not entirely shock me if Schottenheimer had a ring if he had 30 years to earn one as a head coach.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Yup, good points on the comparison to "pre-championship" Brown.
Looks like he's at 29 years right now ABA and NBA combined, with "Super Bowl" appearances coming in 22-25-26. Schottenheimer has coached 21 years. Don't think I'd expect Schottenheimer to get 3 SB appearances in the next five years if he kept going. But, both guys through 21 years really did have very similar profiles. Hadn't thought about that until you pointed it out.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
Except that Marty's not notorious for leaving jobs to move on to something that appeals more to him.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
The "a bye is an earned victory" idea isn't bad. That brings the overall results for a playoff season to 15-11 (because 4 teams get a bye), with an average "winning percentage" of .577 instead of the more intuitive .500.
I'll use Dungy as the example, since he's fresh in everyone's mind.
Instead of being 9-10 and one loss worse than average in the playoffs, he becomes 12-10, for a .545 winning percentage, which is a little less than a game under average. Not a big change, and still slightly subpar.
The argument against this idea would be that, while earning a playoff advancement, it's due to regular season play against regular season opponents, including weak or strong divisions. But I can see the usefulness, too.
My preference in these things is to just expose the facts. People are capable of giving a coach credit for earning byes. Tony Dungy is a 9-10 playoff coach who earned byes 3 out of 11 playoff years, or 27% of the time. One third (33%) of all playoff teams earn byes. Dungy earned byes at a lower rate than other playoff coaches, but only slightly.
It doesn't change much, and it muddies the distinction between regular season performance and playoff performance. I'd say it's an interesting idea, but in the end not very enlightening. I won't mind if others mix in the byes this way, as long as they also allow for the new "average playoff record" of .577.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
I agree that "exposing the facts" is really the best way to go because context matters. Unfortunately, it seems like playoff records are exactly the sort of thing that are often presented without it. That was really the basis for suggesting that byes be counted as wins.
Also, I find it a little odd to compare Dungy's "bye percentage" to the league-wide bye percentage. If you're using it as a way to suggest that his teams should have performed slightly lower than the "playoff average," then I suppose it makes a bit of sense, since it suggests that his teams weren't always entering the tournament as the cream of the crop. But if you're interpreting it as evidence of underachievement, I would caution against that conclusion. After all, that's making a comparison to some other hypothetical coach who made the postseason 11 consecutive seasons. I'm guessing that many coaches with higher "bye percentages" might have them simply because they didn't make the playoffs as frequently. By most reasonable standards, a coach who makes the playoffs 11 times with three byes is probably superior to one who, say, makes the playoffs 5 times with two byes during the same span of time.
Re: A reasonable middle ground?
All quite reasonable. My point wasn't that Dungy's "bye percentage" says anything at all about his skill. It was that you either need to consider it a playoff accomplishment or a regular season accomplishment. If it's a playoff accomplishment (which it's not, really), then Dungy does it less often than his peers, the playoff coaches. If it's from the regular season (as it is in reality), then the peers are all coaches, not just playoff ones, and the years to look at are all 13 of his years, not just the playoff seasons.
Dungy earned three playoff byes in thirteen years. That's good. Average would be less than two. It reflects well on his teams' regular season quality.
Correction: average would be less than two playoffs byes, not slightly more than two, because 4/32 or 1/8 of all teams earn a bye each year.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
Knox once carrieid off field by players after Week 1 game 1980. That when Bufflao finally beat Miami for first tiem since 69. supposed to have that happen at en d of season, if did ever then Knox would be in HOF.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
It’s really hard to distance yourself from success or failure when judging recent guys.
Call me crazy, but I'm not sure success or failure is something you want to be distancing yourself from in this particular debate. As I believe a future Hall of Fame coach once proclaimed, "you play to win the game."
At some point SOMEONE has to be judged on whether or not they won championships. That shouldn't be players. But shouldn't it be head coaches? I mean who else? GMs? Owners?
You play to win the game.
Resume's
Some new articles will probably push this down the front page soon, so I wanted to type up a shorthand of the resume's before the discussion got too far in the rearview mirror. Agree with the commenter who felt that should have been part of the original article. Helps to know what the standards have been as you try to figure out who from the new batch belongs.
Mike said during the discussion: "I think my problem with the Coryell Hall of Fame argument is that it becomes too much of an "argument," rather than a simple resume."
I think a lot of the discussions in this article/thread have ended up being "argument" (meaning--making a case for someone like a lawyer would) rather than "resume" (evaluating a case the way a judge would). But, it was never explained what a HOF resume looked like.
Here's a shorthand that helped yield the rudimentary 15-10-1 formula mentioned in earlier posts (15 points for a Super Bowl win or pre-SB league championship, 10 points for a Super Bowl loss, 1 point for each year you were a head coach in the AFL or NFL). I'll include career regular season wins even though they weren't part of the formula so you can see how they didn't seem to influence HOF thinkers nearly as much as the Super Bowl appearances. And, these are the 12 guys from the last several decades, rather than ALL coaches. The game was so different in the 50's and earlier that it becomes a bit of an apples and oranges thing.
Oh, I added in Vince Lombardi to complete the Super Bowl era. I had Ewbank in there before just to include a name from that far back, and to show that a mediocre won-lost mark for the career wasn't a detriment if you won championships. Lombardi won 5 titles in 9 years as a head coach...and it's conceivable he became the model for evaluating head coaches from the HOF's perspective. The league named the Super Bowl trophy after him for goodness sake...yet he only coached 9 years and won 96 regular season games. So, the emphasis became championships rather than regular season volume. Possible anyway.
Shula 103 points (33 years, 2 SB wins, 4 SB losses, 328 wins)
Landry 89 (29 years, 2 SB wins, 3 SB losses, 250 wins)
Lombardi 84 (9 years, 5 championships, 96 wins)
Noll 73 (23 years, 4 SB wins, 193 wins)
Gibbs 71 (16 years, 3 SB wins, 1 SB loss, 154 wins)
Ewbank 65 (20 years, 3 championships, 130 wins)
Stram 62 (17 years, 3 championships, 131 wins)
Grant 58 (18 years, 4 SB losses, 158 wins)
Levy 57 (17 years, 4 SB losses, 143 wins
Walsh 55 (10 years, 3 SB wins, 92 wins)
Gillman 33 (18 years, 1 championship, 122 wins)
Madden 25 (10 years, 1 SB win, 103 wins)
Allen 22 (12 years, 1 SB loss, 116 wins)
50 seems to safely get you in. Below that and you need the voters accepting an "argument" for your cause that goes beyond the resume.
You can see that even 150 wins is very high for this group. So, clearly, the emphasis to this point has been on getting to the SB rather than accumulating regular season wins. Schottenheimer getting in would change that. Then we can adjust the math to represent new standards...possibly installing bonus points at the 150-win and 200-win levels. I think Bill James has threshold bonuses like that in this baseball methodology if I recall properly. Been a few years since I read his HOF book.
Contenders:
*Reeves 63 points (23 years, 4 SB losses, 190 wins)
Reeves is basically a clone of the Grant/Levy combo who are in, but with a longer tenure and more wins. It would be odd to leave him out when those guys are in. That will probably strike resume-studiers sometime down the road in a way that matters.
*Parcells 59 points (19 years, 2 SB wins, 1 SB loss, 172 wins)
Seems regarded as a shoe-in once he's eligible, and the resume clearly puts him in the class of those who are in already.
*Holmgren 52 points (17 years, 1 SB win, 2 SB losses, 161 wins)
The article suggests he's an equal to Vermeil, but he has an extra Super Bowl appearance, and 41 more regular season victories in just two extra years of coaching. Tough to consider him an equal to Vermeil at all in terms of on-field stuff. Yes, Vermeil took 15 years off (lol), and he'd be an automatic choice just with that tenure added in. Can't give him credit for something he didn't do though. Disagree with the article's point that Holmgren's poor results as a GM should count against him. His accomplishments as a coach look to be enough, and he made add a few more years of padding before not too long.
*Shanahan 46 points (16 years, 2 SB wins, 146 wins)
*Flores 42 points (12 years, 2 SB wins, 97 wins)
*Seifert 41 points (11 years, 2 SB wins, 114 wins)
*Vermeil 40 points (15 years, 1 SB win, 1 SB loss, 120 wins)
*Cowher 40 points (15 years, 1 SB win, 1 SB loss, 149 wins)
Similar hunk here. Flores and Seifert are virtual clones, and many will point out that Seifert's superior win total vs. Flores came from getting a head start with Walsh's group of players. Hadn't registered with me how bad Vermeil's "wins-per-year" ratio is compared to the others until now, with just 120 regular season wins in 15 seasons. Took him a while to build winners. Note that all five of these guys are at two SB appearances. Maybe the threshold will eventually be 40 for this methodology instead of 50, because those guys were voted in. Should 150 wins become a respected threshold, Shanahan and Cowher are very close to picking up bonus points there that would put them over the top (assuming about 10 points for 150 wins, maybe 20 more if you reach 200 wins).
*Dungy 28 points (13 years, 1 SB win, 139 wins)
*Knox 22 points (22 years, 186 wins)
*Schottenheimer 21 points (21 years, 200 wins)
*Coryell 14 points (14 years, 111 wins)
Knox and Schottenheimer are such clones in this methodology that it's hard to see one going without the other. 200 wins is only marginally more amazing than 186 wins when hardly anyone is passing 150. But, not reaching the SB really sticks out when guys who did it twice aren't even sure things to qualify. Should Schottenheimer get voted in, that would probably necessitate 10 bonus points for 150 wins, and 20 more bonus points for 200 wins...as that's the 30 points it would take to get him up over the threshold of 50 points. Knox would still be out of luck, and I don't get the sense that there's outrage about his non-inclusion...so those points for thresholds would probably be justified in that light.
That's a resume starting point at least. Thanks to everyone who talked things through with me, even if we disagreed...JF
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
The statement that Dungy got byes less often than his "peers" the "playoff coaches" is really silly. You would have to compare him to actual contemporary peers like Fox, Gruden, Reid, Belichick, Shannahan, Cowher, and so on and see what percentage of seasons their teams got byes. You aren't comparing him to any actual coaches by saying that 1/3rd of playoff teams get byes.
Also, a playoff win loss percentage is a meaningless number since missing the playoffs is "better" than making it and losing by that metric, and likewise getting to the championship round from the WC round is "equal" to getting to the superbowl from the divisional round...all of which is nonsense. Add to that differences in difficulty of schedule, a win against the 09 Bengals means just as much as the 07 Patriots. The schedule differences do NOT even out.
Counting total playoff wins is more meaningful, but really all you need to do is count championships as far as "post season success" goes.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
We're talking about regular season accomplishments versus playoff accomplishments. Dungy had excellent per regular season accomplishments. He had average per playoff ones. The only thing outstanding about Dungy's playoffs is how often his team's regular season play got him there.
When evaluating regular seasons, you compare to all coaches, who clearly average a .500 record, get to the playoffs 12/32 seasons, and earn byes 4/32 of the time. You ignore the playoffs.
When evaluating playoff performance, you compare to all playoff coaches, who clearly average a .500 playoff winning percentage, and got in on a bye 1/3 of the time. (The bye is actually earned in the regular season, but you asked.) You should ignore the regular season.
If you think that losses don't matter in the playoffs, I suggest you stop watching football and go to a T-ball tournament.
If you are complaining that Dungy had a very tough playoff schedule, all you are saying is that his team wasn't as good as the other playoff teams, and that his stellar regular season record overstates the quality of his teams and his coaching. I disagree. His teams were good enough to deserve their place, despite achieving average playoff results. Their results were those of "just another playoff team" once they got to the playoffs, despite being "the team to beat" in the regular season.
Dungy's record is clear. Regular season: some of the best results ever. Playoffs: just another team.
Once again I'll say it. Tony Dungy will get into the Hall for his historic (for the league) Super Bowl win and for his incredible regular season record. The best we can say about his playoff record is that his teams could have done a lot better than they did, and perhaps that wasn't his fault.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
"If you think that losses don't matter in the playoffs, I suggest you stop watching football and go to a T-ball tournament."
I didn't say losses don't matter, I said that playoff w/l % is a meaningless comparative metric, and gave the reasons. I'll repeat them:
1. It counts a DNP as being better than a loss, much better in fact. Obviously the reverse is true.
2. The strength of schedule does not balance out. A victory over the 07 Patriots is weighted exactly the same as a victory over the 06 Chiefs, and each game has a large impact on the percentage.
3. Due to playoff format changes it is particularly poor at comparing coaches across eras.
A better measure of playoff success is simply total championships. Looking at things like total wins and total conference championships as "tiebreakers" after that are also more meaningful than w/l %. Obviously when you look at total wins across eras you have to account for the playoff format changes.
Taking w/l percentage yields that John Fox, Bum Phillips, Andy Reid, and Bill Switzer had better playoff success than Tom Landry. That is nonsensical. Playoff W/L % is a nonsense statistic, you can't tell what the number you are looking at reflects. It does not do a good job of comparing playoff success between coaches.
Re: Hall of Fame Argument: The Coaches
I don't know how anyone can leave Blanton Collier off this list. Collier coached the Cleveland Browns for 8 seasons. His career coaching record is 76W, 34L, and 2T for a .691 winning percentage. The winning percentage is the highest for a coach who has coached at least 100 games and is not in the HOF. During most of his era (1963 to 1970), there were only 14 teams in the NFL. No wild card teams at that time. His coaching adversaries were Vince Lombardi, Don Shula, Tom Landry, George Halas, George Allen, and Bud Grant - all HOF coaches. The Browns won the 1964 NFL Championship in one of the biggest upsets in NFL history, beating the Colts 27-0. Given the level of competition at that time, Collier is more worthy of the HOF than Dungy, Cowher, Reeves or even Coryell, in my opinion.
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