Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Aug 2013

#1 Pick in 12 Team PPR Draft

I have played around with various simulations of the KUBIAK settings using pretty basic PPR settings, and settled on the 2.5 RB / 2.5 WR / 0 Flex as the best method to get KUBIAK results that don't systematically inflate the value of WRs at the expense of RBs.

While performing several different iterations, I came away that there are really just three options for the #1 overall pick in a 12 team PPR league (and really only two if you would never consider anything other than an RB under any circumstances): Adrian Peterson, Doug Martin, and Calvin Johnson.

I have the number 1 overall pick in a fairly competitive league, and feel confident in passing over Adrian Peterson in favor of Doug Martin, which has been affirmed by the KUBIAK model. Just posting this here to take a pulse of the FO community to see if others have come to a similar conclusion, or that I am an idiot for passing on Peterson.

Posted by: dkbergen on 19 Aug 2013

2 replies , Last at 23 Aug 2013, 9:37am by campbellbj1

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Re: #1 Pick in 12 Team PPR Draft
by alien1rock :: Mon, 08/19/2013 - 1:51pm

Between those three, I'd go AP. Trust him more than Martin. In fact, I might go CJ before Martin too. I ended up with Martin in my auction league, but I'm still not sold on trusting a guy with one year under his belt that had a small sample of huge scoring games as a driver.

2
Re: #1 Pick in 12 Team PPR Draft
by campbellbj1 :: Fri, 08/23/2013 - 9:37am

I have number 2 in a PPR and just pray that 1.1 goes AP cause I have Martin ranked higher. As we discuss on FO often about regression to the mean I think AP's #s this year might be closer to his career average than what he put up last year.