Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Aug 2011

16 Team League - Draft Pick Trade

I have the #2 pick in a 16 team league. The rosters include:

QB
RB
WR
2 RB/WR
TE
Offensive Flex (Any offense position)
K
P (Yes, a Punter)
IDP
D/ST

11 starters, 6 bench (with 2 IR spots for injuries)

The person holding the #8 pick in the first round has proposed a trade.

The original offer was the #8 for my 2(#31), 3(#34), and 4(#63).
I countered and asked for his 5th(#72) and 6th(#89) round picks as well as #8. His next offer was to give #8, his 8(#121) and 17(#264).

I'd be getting 2 top-10 picks, but wouldn't pick again until the 5th round at #66. That's 58 players in between picks.

What do you guys think?

Keith

Posted by: KEWoodward@gmail.com on 19 Aug 2011

4 replies , Last at 14 Sep 2011, 11:58am by KEWoodward@gmail.com

1
Re: 16 Team League - Draft Pick Trade
by Dan :: Sun, 08/21/2011 - 1:38pm

A 16-team league where you can start 2 QBs? Is the first round just all quarterbacks?

Normally I'd say no to this kind of deal, but if QBs are ridiculously valuable in your league and it will get you two of the top 8 QBs then it might be worth doing. I'd want to know more about your league's scoring and its drafting patterns first, though. Do you have estimates of VBD value for each of the picks involved in the trade?

2
Re: 16 Team League - Draft Pick Trade
by KEWoodward@gmail.com :: Mon, 08/22/2011 - 10:19am

This is the first year we're drafting with this many people. Last season we had 12 teams. The Offensive Flex slot is new this season as well.

QBs get 1 pt per 25 yds passing. 4 pts per Passing TD. 1 bonus pt for TDs over 40 yds. -2 per INT. +2 for a 2pt conversion. -1 per Sack. +1 for 300-399 yds, and +1 for over 400 yds passing.

RBs and WRs get 6 per TD, and 1 per 10yds. Bonus points for TDs over 40 yds and 100 yd games.

3
Re: 16 Team League - Draft Pick Trade
by jabrch :: Tue, 08/23/2011 - 10:55am

You need 8 QB/RB/WR in a 16 team league. Picking only 2 times in the top 65 picks would be VERY dangerous. Now starting with 2 of the top 6 QBs would be very awesome...

I guess it depends on your league. How much faith do you have that the other owners will get all the good RBs and WRs off the board before you pick again (4 more times) to fill out that part of your starting lineup? I am in one league where I know all the owners would eat my lunch if I didn't pick until 66 after having two guys. There's be nothing left to pick from. And in my other league, I have complete faith that I could make this move, and still do OK later on.

To me - without knowing your leaguemates, I can't say...I will say this. Starting 2 QBs, in a 16 team league, the first 8 picks become VERY valuable. (Vick, Rivers, Rogers, Brees, Brady, Romo, Roethlisberger and Manning if healthy)

If you do the deal you get Vick/Rivers/Rogers and Brees/Brady/Romo/Roethlis. Then you are looking at something like Bush or Moreno and Hightower or Lynch as your next two RB picks...Then you get something like Lee Evans and MSW/Floyd. Not bad... If you don't, you get Vick/Rivers/Rogers, Maybe Flacco/Eli, Felix/Blount, Addai/Best....

Looking at it that way, I don't do the deal...but without knowing the guys in your league, it's hard to say for sure.

4
Re: 16 Team League - Draft Pick Trade
by KEWoodward@gmail.com :: Wed, 09/14/2011 - 11:58am

So, I ended up not doing that deal. I had another one in place for my 2nd and 3rd rounder for #7 overall plus a 9th round pick. The deal didn't go through before the draft however, and instead of making the picks and trading players afterwards, the other guy reneged on the deal. He was concerned because we can only carry 3 QBs on the roster and he didn't want one of those slots occupied. In the end, he only got one QB anyway!

I took Rodgers with #2 (Vick went #1). Brees and Rivers were available at #7. Brady went fourth overall.

I ended up with Roddy White and Peyton Hillis in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. And I managed to get Cam Newton in the 7th round to take up the Offensive flex spot.

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