Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Aug 2009

2 QB League Draft Strategy Question

Hey all, was looking for some feedback on a draft strategy question since my draft is this Sunday.

I play in a 10 team league that starts: QB,QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,WR,TE,K. 6 pts for all TDs; 1 pt per 25 yards for QBs; 1 pt per 10 yards for RB/WR/TE.

I have the #2 pick overall and I know Peterson is going #1. Putting my league settings into KUBIAK it shows Brady as the #1 rated player and I was likely going to draft him before I purchased KUBIAK, so I was happy KUBIAK was reinforcing my instincts. However, looking at the rest of the top 10, MJD is ranked #6, Rivers #4, and Rodgers #8. I've been drafting with these guys since HS (almost 10 years now) and for whatever reason, even though we start 2 QBs, only about 5 QBs go in the first two rounds combined. Plus, with Matt Berry's new manifesto I know there is a lot of buzz about WRs going off the board early this year. In short, if I take MJD at #2 overall, there is a very good chance I could end up with both Rivers and Rodgers in rounds 2 and 3, respectively. And to be honest, if I took MJD #2 overall the worst case scenario would be getting Rivers in round 2 and then choosing the best available player in round 3.

If I took Brady in round 1, I would probably still have a very good shot at Rodgers or Rivers in rd 2, but since I would be taking Brady #2, there is a good chance a mini QB gets started. Even if this happens, the best RB I would land would be someone like Jacobs, Gore, or Ronnie Brown (or Westbrook/Portis if I ignore their KUBIAK ranking.)

Essentially, do I pass over the #1 rated player on my board (Brady) at pick #2 in favor of the #6 player on my board (MJD), because there is a very strong possibility that I can land the #4 player on my board at pick 19 and the #8 player on my board at pick 22?

Obviously there is a chance something wacky happens, however I am very confident based on many years of drafting with these guys that I would at least start off with MJD and Rivers/Rodgers.

Posted by: keithprime on 21 Aug 2009

6 replies , Last at 25 Aug 2009, 6:11pm by Yadda3x

Re: 2 QB League Draft Strategy Question
by dkibiger :: Fri, 08/21/2009 - 6:33am

I've been doing this type of league for years as well (exact setup). I've taken 2 QB's first for the last couple years and it has paid off, the RB's are always there. My roster looks like this:

QB: Brady, Warner, Hasselbeck, Orton, Leinart
RB: Slaton, Moreno, J Jones, C Benson, J Lewis
WR: C Johnson, V Jackson, A Gonzalez
TE: V Shiancoe
K: J Reed
D: San Diego

Jones, Benson and Lewis were taken after the 10th round. Yes, they suck, but if you can grab Brady and Rivers, it won't matter who you have at RB.

Re: 2 QB League Draft Strategy Question
by keithprime :: Fri, 08/21/2009 - 10:06am

Thanks for the feedback. But wow! How were you able to land: Brady, Warner, Slaton AND Calvin Johnson? That is pretty remarkable, unless C Johnson = Ochocinco. I am assuming your top 3 were: Brady, Warner, and Slaton. That is excellent.

Re: 2 QB League Draft Strategy Question
by dkibiger :: Fri, 08/21/2009 - 12:41pm

Actually, I went Brady, Warner, Calvin Johnson, and Slaton completely fell into my lap.

But seriously, the closest competition at QB from another team is Brees and Cutler, or Rodgers and McNabb, or Manning and Roethlisberger, or Rivers and Romo.

That being said, we had 8 QB's taken in the first 2 rounds, 9 RB's and 3 WR's. So, based on our draft, we still had quality RB's and WR's on the board.

RB's - D Williams, M Barber, S Slaton, K Smith, B Westbrook, C Portis, R Grant (would round out your top 15)
WR's - G Jennings, M Colston, C Johnson, R Wayne, R White, S Smith, A Boldin (rounds out the top 10)

40 picks in the first 4 rounds, and you'll pick 39th on your last pick. This means you can grab 2 top QB's and still a top RB or WR... and a very good one. Plus, think of it this way, let's say your top 2 QB's get 30 TD's each. That is 60 TD's total, and the others wait and get one great one and one good one (let's say they combine for 50 TD's), it is extremely difficult in an average year to find a few players to make up a 10 TD differential.

Last year, I was upset in the playoffs, but the regular season, I had 150 points better than the next guy (I finished with 1200 points, 2nd finished with 1050 points, Note: our yardage scoring was different). The results are all in the math.

Conversely, a team that drafted a QB in round 3:
1. Matt Forte
2. Andre Johnson
3. Matt Schaub
4. Matt Cassel
5. Pierre Thomas (stole him from me! Imagine if I could have grabbed Slaton and Thomas in 4 & 5!)
6. Brandon Marshall

I'd almost skip the receivers until round 5 (after you get your RB's and QB's) because there are always good WR's available.

Re: 2 QB League Draft Strategy Question
by tally :: Sun, 08/23/2009 - 2:33am

The main reason RBs go first in traditional leagues is that you start 2 of them, thus pushing down the RB baseline. In a league with the same number of QB and RB starters, it makes sense for QBs to go earlier.

I suspect that regardless of league set-up, some (maybe most) people will continue to draft RB first, either because that's the way they've always done it or that's what all the fantasy mags with no customization tell them.

Re: 2 QB League Draft Strategy Question
by superbears :: Mon, 08/24/2009 - 3:42pm

I am in a 12 person 2 QB league. We also start 2 rb, 2 wr, a flex and a TE. We just had our draft Saturday. I followed Kubiak and took the top rated player almost every time. We had a major run on the QB's during the first round, 6 QBs went in that round, with 4 pts a TD pass. I would suggest taking a QB because the number of quality RB's out there. A lot of teams have a second RB who you could happy with starting but they are no second string QBs. My team:

QB: Manning, Gerrard, Russell, Thigpen
RB: S.Jackson, B.Jacobs, R.Brown, D.Brown, A.Bradshaw, J.Harrison, K.Faulk, C.Williams
WR: B.Marshall, H.Ward, T.Holt, D.Bass
TE: V.Davis

Re: 2 QB League Draft Strategy Question
by Yadda3x :: Tue, 08/25/2009 - 6:11pm

People are so used to "regular" leagues that 2 QB leagues completely blow them out of the water strategy-wise. I'm including myself in that group because a couple years ago I joined a 2QB, 3WR, 3RB, TE, K, DEF keeper league that is heavy on touchdowns. Teams with 2 top QB's are flat out dominant. I actually scored the most points with the team that I'm going to list, but not by much.

I'm going to list the top three teams points teams last year. Try to imagine this in a 1 QB team.
My Team: (1116 points)
QB: Schaub, Roethlisberger, Shaun Hill, Kevin Kolb
RB: DeAngelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Ray Rice, Chester Taylor
WR: Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Boldin, Santana Moss, Ginn
TE: Gates, Scheffler
K: Ryan Longwell, Robie Gould
DEF: Eagles, Titans

Okay that list is *insane* for last year except for the QB's. Even my kicker and defenses all hit with crazy value. In my leagues scoring that is QB #'s 15 & 17 (yeah that *is* bad though both QB's had injury time) RB #'s 1, 4, & 9, WR #'s 5, 6, 7; TE #2; K #1, DEF #2 (short by 1 point.) I flat out didn't understand how vital QB's are. Btw, yes I had been trying to get QB's but it's a 10 team, 10 keeper league and on the roster in the regular season are 40 quarterbacks. Think about what holding FORTY qb's would mean! That team would have crushed in a 1 QB league.

Now I'll just list teams (at the end of the season) 2-4 in points.

Team 2: (1102 points) there was a lot of roster movement on this one
QB: Romo, Thigpen, Orton, Frerotte
RB: Grant, Barber, Thomas Jones, Hillis, Hightower
WR: Berrian, Lance Moore, Chambers, Cotchery, Bryant
TE: Witten, Zach Miller
K: Elam, Josh Brown
DEF: Falcons, Jets

Team 3: (1067 points)
QB: Cutler, Rivers, McNabb, Young
RB: Bush, McGahee, Gore, Buckhalter, Felix Jones
WR: Houshmandzadeh, Randy Moss, Owens, Breaston, Bruce
TE: Cooley, Daniels
K: Vinatieri, Reed
DEF: Vikings, Colts

Team 4: (1012 points)
QB: Peyton Manning, Ryan, Hasslebeck, Delhomme
RB: Jacobs, Larry Johnson, Lewis, McClain, Washington
WR: Steve Smith, Curtis, Avery, Branch, Sidney Rice
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Fred Davis
K: Nugent, Scobee
DEF: Ravens, Cowboys

Okay now I know that is a spread of 10% in points but compare the quality of the playing, non-QB's. The rules of this league are weird in that we get 6 points for any TD and an extra 6 for plays over 50 yards. Yardage itself kicks in with 2 points over 100 yards, and bigger points for huge games. So there is no doubt that this is an even more QB heavy league, plus they are hard to get because any starter or reasonable potential starter is on a bench.

Here's how bad it was. Team 3 with Cutler and Rivers = 415 point. Me: Roethlisberger, Schaub, Williams, Peterson = 488. That's the 2 & 8 QB vs. the 15 & 17 QB plus #1 & 4 RB! I know these rules are nutso but I think it's pretty clear. TWO TOP QB AM GOOD!

Now the good news for me is that everyone keeps 10 players. I have a pretty sweet list sans QB (and should do better there too.) But armed with this knowledge, I can hopefully draft or broker a deal that will make my team much stronger.

Sorry for the long post

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