Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Aug 2009

2009 FEI

will it be possible to update the FEI rankings for all 120 teams throughout the NCAAF season as seen in the 2009 FEI projections page: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei2009projections

it would be a nice reference and use for power rankings

Posted by: turkstock on 30 Aug 2009

4 replies , Last at 27 Dec 2009, 4:21am by Coastal King

Re: 2009 FEI
by Brian Fremeau :: Thu, 09/03/2009 - 7:20pm

Definitely will, as part of the weekly FEI columns that will run on Wednesdays throughout the season.

Re: 2009 FEI
by Bandos :: Thu, 12/24/2009 - 1:37pm


Nice site and work. I am really interested(BP subscriber) but wonder ing why the HUGE discrepancy between the FEI and S+P rankings. Looking at tonights game on FEI shows an evenly matched game. on the S+P, Nevada is 31 and SMU 106! Same thing last night with Utah ranking much higher than Cal on the S+P, Cal was ahead on the FEI.

Bowl game to date:
Rutgers Def C fla 45-24
FEI 58 v. 69
S+P 87v. 61

WY def Fresno 35-28 (OT)
FEI: 112 v 73
S+P: 81 v 62

Mid Tenn def So Miss 42-32
FEI 83 v 63
S+P 50 v. 78

BYU def OR st 44-20
FEI 48 v 13
S+P 13 v 48

Utah def cal 37-27
FEI59 v 42
S+P 23 v 65

Re: 2009 FEI
by Coastal King (not verified) :: Sat, 12/26/2009 - 6:34am

I was going to say the same thing.

So far the deficits are:

Wyoming vs Fresno State
113 upset 73 (40 ranks)

Middle Tennessee vs Souther Mississippi
83 upsets 63 (20 ranks)

BYU vs Oregon State
48 upsets 13 and how (35 ranks)

Utah vs California
59 upsets 42 (17 ranks)

Rutgers vs Central Florida
58 beats 69

I guarantee that any other computer ranking did better than this one. In fact, going by just wins and losses would probably do a better job. I think with these results so far, you need to explain why the system is working. I would really like to hear it.

Some other discrepancies:

Air Force is ranked ahead of Utah, who beat them and has won more games. BYU beat both of those teams and is ranked barely ahead of Air Force.

Boise State beat Oregon and is undefeated. Yet Oregon is ranked 4th and Boise State is down at 18th.

New Mexico is ranked ahead of Wyoming and New Mexico State. New Mexico is the worst team in the FBS (that hasn't moved up from FCS lately.) No question about that. And they lost to both of those teams. In fact, their only win was against Colorado State by 1 point.

Colorado State is ahead of Wyoming. I don't know how. Is it because they beat Colorado.

Virginia Tech is ahead of Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech. They lost to Miami, who is ranked 14 (10 here) and Georgia who is ranked 32 (30 here). In contrast Virginia Tech lost to #1, #7, and #30.

Idaho is below Akron and Ball State. That one baffles me a bit.

Virginia and Arizona State are ranked ahead of Texas A&M, Utah and Nevada.

Virginia is ranked ahead of Duke. Duke beat Virginia. They both beat Maryland. Duke beat North Carolina State, Virginia, and NC Coastal while Virginia beat North Carolina and Indiana.

Clearly, what's going on is your strength of schedule is driving all the results. Little regard is given to whether or not you win your games, so long as you schedule good teams. Your thought process for Strength of Schedule is a really good start. You're deciding if the team merits being in the top five if they win out. I would expand that by finding which ranked team would have a .500 probability of winning out. Also, don't use it as your only criterion.

Re: 2009 FEI
by Coastal King (not verified) :: Sun, 12/27/2009 - 4:21am

Another perspective. I will compare the FEI poll to the Colley Matrix rankings.
I'll list the rank each poll had them at, the difference in rankings and whether they guessed correctly or not (win/loss).

New Mexico Bowl
Wyoming 35, Fresno State 28
Colley: Fresno State 42, Wyoming 67 ( -25 points, loss )
FEI: Fresno State 73, Wyoming 112 ( -39 points, loss )

So far: Colley (0-1) -25 points, FEI (0-1) -39 points

St. Petersburg Bowl
Rutgers 45, UCF 24
Colley: Rutgers 46, UCF 45 (-1 points, loss )
FEI: Rutgers 58, CF 69 (11 points, win )

So far: Colley (0-2) -26 points, FEI (1-1) -28 points

R+L Carriers Bowl
Middle Tennessee 42, Southern Miss 32
Colley: Middle Tennessee 51, Southern Miss 68 (17 points, win)
FEI: Middle Tennessee 83, Southern Miss 63 (-20 points, loss)

So far: Colley (1-2) -9 points, FEI (1-2) -48 points

Las Vegas Bowl
BYU 44, Oregon State 20
Colley: BYU 15, Oregon State 22 (7 points, win)
FEI: BYU 48, Oregon State 13 (-35 points, loss)

So far: Colley (2-2) -2 points, FEI (1-3) -83 points

Poinsettia Bowl
Utah 37, Cal 27
Colley: Utah 23, Cal 28 (5 points, win)
FEI: Utah 59, Cal 42 (-17 points, loss)

So far: Colley (3-2) 3 points, FEI (1-4) -100 points

Hawaii Bowl
SMU 45, Nevada 10
Colley: SMU 62, Nevada 47 (-15 points, loss)
FEI: SMU 80, Nevada 78 (-2 points, loss)

So far: Colley (3-3) -12 points, FEI (1-5) -102 points

Little Caesars Bowl
Marshall 21, Ohio 17
Colley: Marshall 69, Ohio 57 (-12 points, loss)
FEI: Marshall 85, Ohio 62 (-23 points, loss)

So far: Colley (3-4) -21 points, FEI (1-6) -125 points

Meineke Car Care
Pitt 19, North Carolina 17
Colley: Pitt 18, North Carolina 30 (12 points, win)
FEI: Pitt 15, North Carolina 25 (10 points, win)

So far: Colley (4-4) -9 points, FEI (2-6) -115 points

Emerald Bowl
USC 24, Boston College 13
Colley: USC 21, Boston College 41 (20 points, win)
FEI: USC 20, Boston College 35 (15 points, win)

Final: Colley (5-4) 11 points, FEI (3-6) -100 points

I was surprised by how bad the Colley poll did. I think the two upsets of Nevada and Fresno State weren't predicted by just about anyone. If you take those out, you get these results:

Final: Colley (7-2) 51 points, FEI (5-4) -59 points

My biggest surprise came with the BYU and Utah scores/rankings. I just don't see how they could be ranked so low.

If you take out the MWC games, you get:
FEI( 3-3 ) -9 points

I guess the author has some grudge to avenge on his site by ranking them lower. Well, look where that got them.

PS I like seeing Virginia so high, but they clearly don't deserve it.

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