Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

287
Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Eddo :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:05pm

Hasselbeck did the same thing earlier in the game (though his RB was not on the ground) and grounding was not called.

I hate the Patriots and Brady as much as anyone, but with the way the rule is written, Brady made a smart play.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Dunbar :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:25pm

I, for one, prefer them to Ravens fans.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by 'nonymous (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:01pm

I've seen that several times as a legitimate way to avoid a grounding call. If you can spike the ball in the direction of the one eligible receiver in the pocket, you're safe; it doesn't need to be a real attempt.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:03pm

Indeed.
So...saying that "only Brady would get that call" is counterfactual nonsense, which is the opposite of "backing up an argument with evidence".

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Flounder :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 7:54pm

let me get this straight: you're telling me someone on the ground is not allowed to catch the ball?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Andrew Potter :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 7:54pm

You got that straight.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 7:51pm

That drive happened because Rex Ryan punted from the 38 yard line. That decision totally changed the game.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 7:52pm

Crumpler holds onto it this time. Good job getting open, and glad to see the Pats aren't afraid to go to him after the drop.

Nice 2-point conversion.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 7:58pm

OK, who blew that coverage?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:00pm

Hard to say going by just the two quick looks on video and not knowing the play call on defense. Probably a linebacker. I think the bigger defensive errors were in the angles taken by pursuit.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Flounder :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:01pm

What a catch and throw.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Shattenjager :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:03pm

Fantastic catch, yes.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Lance :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:13pm

Christ. Brady has what seems like HOURS to throw.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:15pm

Wow, the protection and the coverage on that play were both impressive. It was fascinating to watch the replay angle showing the receivers making their moves and the defenders covering and handing off players in the zone.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:15pm

Good coverage by the Jets on that 3rd down play.
Phil Simms is telling us that Brady didn't want to throw it short because that would not have gotten them the 1st down. If that's what Brady was thinking, it's a bit foolish. When 5 minutes left in the game they either needed an extra five yards for a FG attempt or to make a moderately plausible 4th down position.

Going for it on 4th and 13 would seem like a horrible idea. I hope they don't do that. If that was the plan - get more yards on 3rd down!!

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Flounder :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:16pm

cue the fat lady

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:22pm

Oh, I wouldn't call in Roseanne Bar just yet. I think* we're looking at a 50-50 game right about now.

*That's emotional rather than analytical thought.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Shattenjager :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:17pm

I agree with going for it on 4th and 13 there.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Lance :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:18pm

That has to hurt. NE was engaged in a long, methodical drive that looked to position them perfectly for a win. Brady has hours to throw and their runs are breaking for big gains. But in the end, they can't convert on 4th and long, and now it's up to the Jets to put together their own long drive to milk the clock and seal the win.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Lance :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:21pm

... Aaaaand so much for that idea. It's three and out with some probably too-conservative play-calling. NE will get the ball back with about 3:30 to play. Enough time to score twice, I think.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:18pm

Just way too many mistakes by the Pats today. Aside from Folk's missed FG, I cannot think of any mistakes by the Jets. No fumbles, and even Sanchez's bad passes have been nowhere near any defender.

The snap to Chung continues to look like an utter disaster.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:20pm

How is that not a personal foul on Wilfork? Oh yeah. The Patriots.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:26pm

Your bias is showing.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:26pm

Sanchez was pushing the pile - or to be more legal, he was "blocking" off a tackler. It's fair game to knock push off a blocker, which is what Wilfork did.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by 'nonymous (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:27pm

not after the play. That was just Wilfork taking a shot at the QB.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:32pm

Oh it was definitely Wilfork just taking a shot at the quarterback. But that's not necessarily illegal. It may have been after the whistle, but it was very close either way and these fat guys cannot stop on a dime, and he didn't appear to "give him the business" in addition to the hit or anything like that. I think the no-call is the right decision.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:28pm

Out of curiosity what's the rule on calling for fair catch. If a member of the receiving team other than the player who actually catches the all gives the fair catch signal, is the receiver allowed to run it back?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by frvwfr2 :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:31pm

Yes, the receiver has to call it.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by 'nonymous (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:40pm

No, I think any player can call for the fair catch. I saw that wave, too; I thought it was a signal.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:02pm

Looking back it was clearly a guy pinwheeling him arms and not a fair catch signal. But I wonder if it was enough to be what caused the gunner to low right by the receiver and allow the big run. Seems one could "fake" a fair catch signal to your returners advantage.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Lance :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:29pm

Why does Simms keep saying that he's "throwing away" these passes by Brady? They look to me like Brady is just off on his throws, no?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Shattenjager :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:32pm

Agreed. As to why Simms keeps saying that, I don't know. Beyond the typical, "He's Phil Simms."

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Newjamarcus (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:55pm

Yeah, how remarkably unlucky that Brady's been off on his throws in 3 of 5 games since Ryan started coaching the Jets. It's almost as if the Jets didn't lose their defensive signal caller 2 days before this game, after the game plan had already been developed.

Seriously, Brady's one of the best QBs of all time, and he's entirely capable of roasting any defense. But really? Do you think the defense might have had just a little bit to do with this?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:31pm

Not after the whistle has blown and the refs are running in waving their arms its not. If it had been Ellis hitting Brady like that there would have been 9 flags on the field.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:35pm

Waaah! Waaah!

Like Brady never gets hit.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Lance :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:34pm

Yikes. That was close. But it looks like New York has sealed this up.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by NYExpat :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:35pm

Antonio Cromartie: Shine on, you crazy diamond.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:36pm

What a crazy onside kick. First I thought Revis was going to get it, and then I thought once it bounced off of him all the Patriots coming up would recover, and then it caromed off one of their ankles, and I though one of those two Jets would fall on it, but then Cromartie decides to run the thing back.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:38pm

Delicious.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:39pm

The game was over when the Jets got the onside kick.

Part of the reason the last TD happened is because the Pats had to stop a 1st down and had stacked everybody for that purpose alone. A 1st down was as good as a TD at that point.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by JIPanick :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:40pm

Better, actually. Scoring was a mistake, although one that is very unlikely to matter.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:43pm

I don't think it was over after the onside, but the chances were not good. I agree on the defense on that run. It happened because the Patriots couldn't afford the first down and didn't make discriminate between the two outcomes in their scheming.

Oh and it isn't over yet. The Patriots are capable of two scores in 35 seconds with possession this deep.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Shattenjager :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:40pm

I really don't want to have to see a Pittsburgh-Green Bay Super Bowl. But I can't stand the Jets or Cutler. I'm going to be unhappy no matter what.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by ebongreen (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:48pm

I think that would be the most well-fought of the SuperBowl possibilities. I don't trust Mark Sanchez' accuracy or Jay Cutler's consistency, so at least as far as quarterback play goes, Roethlisberger vs. Rodgers is about as good as it's going to get, I think.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Shattenjager :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:58pm

Definitely, but the media would probably follow two storylines: (1) These are the two "proudest" franchises in the NFL and (2) Can Rodgers finally prove he deserved to replace the five-letter F-word. I don't want to hear anything about either.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by zempf (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:45pm

Something that the commentators failed to point out on the first onside kick -- Patriots got called for being offside. If the Pats had recovered, couldn't the Jets have just made them rekick?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by miqewalsh :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:47pm

So, both #1 seeds come out and lay an egg after their bye. What's that regular season all about again?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:12pm

I don't think it's fair to call either game a case if a #1 seed "laying an egg." The Falcons lost to a superior Green Bay team. They didn't necessarily play poorly, they were just beaten. And the Patriots played decently as well. Credit the Jets defense for controlling the line of scrimmage with good run stuffing and pressure for a lot of the game.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Joshua Northey (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:47pm

If only Brady was more clutch this wouldn't keep happening to him. Clearly this loss is 100% on his shoulders because QBs are the only players who matter and they account for 98% of what happens in the game (coach timeout management and officiating making up the rest).

Brady really needs to take some lessons from great clutch quarterbacks like Trent Dilfer and Matt Sanchez.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Mr Derp (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:59pm

you win the thread.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Mike Elseroad (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:47pm

Congrats to any & all Jets fans out there. Your team played very well and deserved to win.

Good luck vs Pittsburgh

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Newjamarcus (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:04pm

Thank you. What may get lost in all the media accounts and Rex Ryan bluster is that this is a franchise that's basically lacked any real potential for, well, the entire life of this Jets fan (late '90s somewhat excepted). Go Rex, for daring to believe and saying it publicly. Best day of my life as a Jets fan.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:54pm

Good riddance to the Patriots. Another playoff game in which the refs called a fair game and the Patriots came up short. Maybe the NFL has finally turned the corner, at least in the playoffs.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Dunbar :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:56pm

Funny how the refs were calling an unfair game until the Patriots lost.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:59pm

morganja has shown him/herself to be a one-trick pony. "I hate the Pats!" Thanks for participating in our conversation!!

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by bobt (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:05pm

You, on the other hand, have been a model of impartiality.

But 'tis irrelevant now. Enjoy the offseason!

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:22am

Parse better. I never claimed to be impartial. But at least I have more to offer the thread than "I hate the Jets" and "the refs suck!" I've been quite willing to discuss the play while it's happening, noting mistakes that the Patriots are making while affirming the solid play of the Jets.

"enjoy the offseason!"

Bite me.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by bobt (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:06pm

You, on the other hand, have been a model of impartiality.

But tis irrelevant now. Enjoy the offseason!

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by morganja :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:09pm

Really? The only calls I disagreed with were the spot on the interception, clearly the wrong spot, the bad spot on what should have been a first down run by the Patriots, and the lack of a personal foul on Wilfork. Anything remotely close to a few mistakes either way is a world of difference from what we had been treated to the first 8 years of the decade.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by BigNachos :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:37pm

What about the blatant helmet-to-helmet hit on Welker in which Welker's helmet literally exploded, with shrapnel left all over the field, with no penalty called? It didn't actually make a difference in the game, but I was just dumbfounded by the lack of flag on that play.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by rk (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:47pm

I think the ruling was probably that Welker had completed the catch and was a runner (not a defenseless player) at that point. Not sure if that's accurate, but it was at least close.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:30am

You also gave us this:
"by morganja :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 7:58pm
Perfect example of why most of the country despise the patriots and their fans."

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Duff Soviet Union :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:29pm

God, you are a complete loser.

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Play of the Game (NYJ-NE)
by Anonymus (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:57pm

If I had to vote in one play to be THE PLAY of the Jets-Patriots game it would the 58-yard pass Sanchez/Cotchery that opened the 4th quarter.

Any reaction the Patriots could be starting to have was killed right there.

---

Patriots defense never showed up. Patriots offense played only one half. Jets deserved it all.

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Re: Play of the Game (NYJ-NE)
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:10pm

I wouldn't blame the Patriots' defense. The catch by Cotchery was a backbreaker, but aside from that, most of the scoring was not because of weak defense.

The first TD by the Jets was relatively normal.

The second TD by the Jets was because the Patriots inexplicably gave them a short field with less than 2 minutes left in the 1st half.

The third TD was because of one bad play.

The fourth TD was after the game was out of hand. (It actually didn't really help the Jets all that much, since ball control would have been more useful.)

Basically, the Pats gave the Jets three huge gifts - the interception on an awful pass by Brady, the ridiculous snap to Chung, and the non-coverage of Cotchery on his long pass reception. One apiece for the offense, the defense, and the special teams.

The Patriots offense showed up for the first two drive and then didn't reappear until late in the 3rd quarter. Given that their game plan had to rely on their offense, I'd put more blame on the offense than the defense.

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Re: Play of the Game (NYJ-NE)
by Dennis :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:25pm

Of course you can also give the Jets defense some credit for shutting down the Pats offense. There were some plays where Brady had forever to throw and couldn't find anyone - that's just great coverage.

The bottom line is the Jets outplayed the Pats.

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Re: Play of the Game (NYJ-NE)
by rk (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:50pm

The Jets also seriously outcoached the Patriots. The fake punt and the 48 yard drive that took 8 minutes and ended with an incompletion on 4th down stand out as awful game mismanagement.

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Re: Play of the Game (NYJ-NE)
by jackgibbs :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:54pm

I really, really wanted them to run the colts circa 2005 offense on that drive, I still don't know what was going on there

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Re: Play of the Game (NYJ-NE)
by Jim G (not verified) :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 11:21am

Is there a Patriots playoff victory that the other team could not have said the same thing? They were the Ric Flair of the NFL for a good 5 years.

It sounds like sour grapes to me. This is why most people outside of New England hate the Patriots(I'm a Giants fan). For a fanbase that also gets to root for the Celtics, you guys are really bad winners and even worse losers. The Jets players and coaching staff did a lot of talking, but nowhere near as much as you would hear from the Pats fans and the local media.

A caller mentioned it on 98.5 after the game yesterday and it made sense to me: Whatever the New England Patriots are good at is what Pats fans think the key to football is. If that is managing the game on offense and winning with defense and special teams, that is what the secret to football is. If scoring a ton of points and having your defense pick their spots, that is what the secret to football is. It's sickening.

Get used to this feeling. I still get a strong feeling of shadenfraude when bad things happen to the Cowboys because of how their fans acted in the early 90s. Everything that happens to you once this run is over has been brought on yourselves.

Now if you excuse me, I'm off to watch Super Bowl 42 on my DVR.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:57pm

Well, that was a disappointing performance. I'll give the Jets credit for not making any mistakes. The defense was very good and their receivers played well enough to get the yardage they earned.
Sanchez didn't make the kinds of mistakes that characterized his play for the last quarter of the season.
I put the blame for the loss on the shoulders of Brady and on Belichick. Whoever called for a snap to Chung with time running low in the first half was an idiot. So either Belichick made an idiotic call or he let an underling blow the game for him, and that would itself by bad coaching. At that point, the Pats were down by 4 points and they were nowhere near scoring. But losing the ball on downs was a huge gift to the Jets. Also, the decision implied a lack of confidence that a 14-2 team should not be feeling.

I would like to be magnanimous to the Jets, but they've comported themselves with so little class over the past week that I can only hope the Steelers flatten them.

What a waste of a 14-2 team. I feel like a Chiefs fan.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Dunbar :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:06pm

"I would like to be magnanimous to the Jets, but they've comported themselves with so little class over the past week that I can only hope the Steelers flatten them."

You know, I was originally thinking I would root for the Jets, since I thought the Steelers would have a better chance against them than against the Patriots. But then I heard that Bart Scott had threatened to end Welker's career over the foot fetish conference, and I remembered: Oh yeah, the Jets have Bart Scott. I hate Bart Scott. He's always been a blowhard and a thug, and there are few players I enjoy rooting against more. So I actually ended up rooting for the Patriots. I'm seriously disappointed that my team is facing a lesser opponent in the AFC championship game.

So yeah, the Jets suck.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Spielman :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:13pm

I couldn't bring myself to root for either team. Every time I started to feel like I was rooting for one team or the other, I'd have a realization like that one about them, and then stop.

Same thing will apply in the AFC game next week, too.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by NYExpat :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:25pm

That's too bad, because Scott just had a great post game interview with Sal Palantonio:

http://deadspin.com/5735214/bart-scott-gives-an-interview-worth-of-pro-w...

Emotional, sure, but nothing thuggish about it. Pretty on the mark, if you ask me.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by chemical burn :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:45pm

That interview is amazing. He's got to be joking, right? Or, he has to know how hilarious it is. He really comes across like Rowdy Roddy Piper there...

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by devo (not verified) :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 12:28am

Just when you think you have all the answers, Bart changes the questions.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RowdyRoddyPiper :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 4:01am

Hey hey hey. He's not even close to the Piper.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by NYExpat :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:27pm

Given the tape that's come out about the Patriots wall/tripping against the Jets, you ought to be more careful with the stones you throw, lest your glass house shatter around you.

Oh, wait, it already did. Stay classy, and enjoy the offseason!

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:08am

And this is why I hate Jets fans. Shitty when they lose, shitty when they win.

For an entire week we had to endure Ryan's blather to the media about how his relationship with the Patroits was "personal". This was after a week when we had to listen to him talk about how his loss to the Colts was "personal". I'm really looking forward to hearing him talk about how he has a personal grudge against the Steelers, too!

And I'm wondering who on the Patriots made any comments like Bart Scott's.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 5:16am

"Opening a front against the entire fanbase of a team is another. You did the second. How do expect to have a readable forum when you make comments like the one you did?
So yes, if you say 'the entire nation hates the Patriots and their fans,' you're going to hear it from me. And that's not WHINING, that's telling you not to behave like an asshole."

"And this is why I hate Jets fans. Shitty when they lose, shitty when they win."

You may want to tone it down a little, no disrespect. This site tends to be high on the analysis and civility, which sets it apart from pretty much every other large, diverse-audience sports site I've seen. I think it is very much in all our interests to keep it that way.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Mike Elseroad (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 8:59pm

Congrats to any & all Jets fans out there. Your team played well and deserved to win. Good luck vs Pittsburgh.

Rex was right. He just had to be better than Belichick for just one game. And he and his team were.

I just want to add that Shaun Ellis played a whale of a game today.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by rk (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:06pm

The last Patriots playoff victory seems so long ago. 07 AFC Championship.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by agauntpanda :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:09pm

To be fair, that was in January 2008, but still, 3 years for a team that good... yeesh. Of course one of those years was the playoff-less 11-5 year with Cassel, but still.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:10am

..but still, why didn't they win more games when Brady was injured!

A good abuse of "but still" there.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 9:53pm

Before this game I was hoping for the jets in the afc cf. But after seeing them play defense again I'm starting to wonder what the steelers are going to do against it. Sure, the steelers d will stop the jets (i thought), but even they showed up today.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by jackgibbs :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:13pm

the jets controlled that game and deserved to win. I wish I could say I'm gutted, but I'm not, really. I never really saw this team as a superbowl chapion, even if they went 14-2 and dominated dvoa. something just never really felt like it was there. remember that their wins against san diego and baltimore and green bay and indy easily could have gone the other way, and this team is now 10-6...

the thing that drove me crazy watching tonight was the offensive play calling. why deion branch saw the targets he did, how the pats refused to lock the jets into a base defense with hernandez and gronkowski on the field, how brady seemed to always look for the departed randy moss down field after avoiding the rush instead of checking down to whoever was open in the middle (the play the jets ran on basically every first down for 6-8 yards)

and I'd really like to know what the coaches saw on film that made them think a fake punt was a higher percentage play than leaving brady on the field for a fourth and short. just way too many head scratchers.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by aRX (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:38pm

EVERY TEAM, even your SB winning ones, even the 18-1 team, has plenty of squeakers that were a play or two from turning the other way; WINNING those games, by hook or by crook, is what separates the good teams from the mediocre.

They steamrolled most of the competition in the 2nd half of the year, they were firing on all 8 cylinders on both sides of the ball...as much as it sucked for me to watch, there's a reason they were the favorites.

I won't get into the coaching and playcalling decisions (I'm sure they had a field day with them in the Audibles at the Line emails), but don't sell your team short -- and this coming from a hardcore Jets fan.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Kal :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 1:37am

EVERY TEAM, even your SB winning ones, even the 18-1 team, has plenty of squeakers that were a play or two from turning the other way; WINNING those games, by hook or by crook, is what separates the good teams from the mediocre.,

Actually, this very site believes otherwise; good teams dominate bad competition and play decently against good competition. Mediocre teams do what you say.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by troycapitated p... :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 2:45am

Your statement does not refute anything the initial poster said. It is quite possible that a good team could dominate the weaker teams on their slate and play decently against the good teams in such a way that involves them squeaking out a few wins against said good teams in games that were a play or two from turning the other way.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Kal :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 2:58am

It kinda does though. The common consensus is that you need to get lucky to win those games and pull something out. That's often the case when you play good teams, but the best superbowl winners don't do that. They dominate from start to finish to the point where it's really only a question of whether or not they mess things up themselves.

What they don't do is lose to inferior competition all that often, because they're not in close games with inferior competition. If you see a team play a lot of squeakers against both good and meh teams and win them, chances are they're winning in spite of their skill.

Point being that the really good teams don't need to have those wins on their record before going to the superbowl. It doesn't build character, it doesn't give you ways to conquer adversity. It's just a fallacious fan-truth that isn't.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by aRX (not verified) :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 9:38am

Still not sure what you're disagreeing with me over. The guy I was replying to seemed to think that close wins against BAL, GB, IND and SD (3 playoff teams and the special-teams-cursed Chargers) was evidence that NE was 'missing something' and wasn't likely to win the SB anyway. I simply stated the 3 Pats teams that won the SB, and even that 18-1 team, played and won such games. I'm not even sure where that 'building character', 'conquer adversity' crap came from, but kindly refrain from putting words in my mouth.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by jackgibbs :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 2:27pm

I wasn't implying that those close wins were evidence per se, just that if kaeding had hit his field goal, or manning doesn't get his arm hit as he's throwing, oraaron rodgers doesn't get concussed the week before, this team is 10-6 and people's expectations are a bit tempered.

My evidence that this team was "missing something" is their porous defense. The fact that the defense wasn't to blame for last night just makes it even more disheartening

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by mvhuber :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:43pm

I think it just came down to the fact that Belichick and his staff was overmatched tonight. Brady never truly looked comfortable out there, which I'm guessing had to do with the fact that the Jets were throwing some new looks that didn't allow him to get good reads. On top of that, the Jets' coverage down the field was excellent. I wasn't paying close attention during the game, but as I think about it, they appeared to play safeties Smith, Ihedigbo and Pool at the same time often likely taking a LB off the field. I could be wrong about that, but whatever they did schematically, they certainly did a great job limiting the short routes. They also got a ton of pressure on him. On a couple of plays, Brady was looking over his shoulder for pressure, which is unheard of.

The Pats could not find an answer to what the Jets were doing at any point, really, and they played tentative all night because of it. You have to give the Jets and their staff all the credit in the world for what was a top-notch gameplan and one that was supremely executed.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:17am

The playcalling and more generally the management of the offense was poor. I know that the Jets have an excellent defense, but that doesn't explain away so many of the decisions being made. If you need 13 yards and you've already decided to go for it on 4th down, it's kind of stupid to make two consecutive attempts to get all of the yardage at once.
And the snap to Chung is the worst play call I've ever seen. And from what the Boston press are saying, that call was made by Chung himself. Umm...WTF??? The biggest game of the year and you're letting a 2nd year player make decisions of that nature??
I still think that, absent the atrocious INT and the atrocious snap to Chung, the Pats would have won this game easily. So I'm not really buying into the NY-driven worship of the Jets' victory.
This is still the team that last 45-3 only six weeks ago. They're still not all that good. Of course, none of the teams left are all that good. Thinks are breaking well for the Packers, who appear to be the only team left playing good football in all phases of the game.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RowdyRoddyPiper :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:55am

Riiiiiiiight. The teams left for the championship game are clearly inferior and have not earned it. Perhaps the NFL should adopt the BCS??

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Bruce Arians (not verified) :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 4:06am

Hey, I thought the play-calling was pretty good.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Intropy :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 4:22pm

I see what you did there, Bruce.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by BobbyC (not verified) :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 4:18am

And you lost to them.

Since you say them losing to you in that fashion earlier means they were not a very good team, it would stand to reason that your team losing to them makes the jets the better team.

I hope you enjoyed your blowout, but it was a best of three series and you lost two. Jets > Patriots, not much else to say there duder.

Your statement of "sans XXX event would result in a Pats victory" logically boils down to "if they Patriots hadn't done the things that made them lose, they would have won." I agree, but they did those things.

This is the NFL, not college. The "best" team is the one who wins the important games. You don't get handed your bowl game because you put up solid numbers and bunch of people vote for you. Alot of times this means the "best(as in the team people like for any reasons other than winning the game)" doesn't win.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by herm :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 5:04am

The Jets also averaged 7.6 yards per pass play and the Pats averaged 5.2. And of course the Pats fumbled three times and recovered all three and the Jets missed an easy FG.

And while maybe you can say the punt thing was flukish, it's harder to complain about the INT. Brady made a terrible throw and it was intercepted. Saying they would have won without it is basically saying "they would have won if they played better", which is pretty circular.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Led :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 12:18pm

If I give you back the INT and let you punt on the Chung play, can the Jets recover the two other Patriot fumbles? Then we'd have the Pats winning easily except for THOSE two atrocious plays.

Not sure why the 45-3 game is even relevant or, if it is, why the 24-14 game in September isn't relevant. The teams split this year (and last year for what it's worth). But all that really matters today is that the Jets straight up outplayed the Patriots yesterday.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by aRX (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 10:31pm

Can't wait to see how this game looked from a DVOA standpoint. Jets O played well (enough), their D made great plays outside of that last minute drive, their ST...lets just call them "uneven". Jets won, controlled the game practically from wire to wire, so this HAS to look better than last week statistically...right?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by t.d. :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:01pm

Well, the Jets forced two fumbles that the Pats recovered, they missed a field goal, and they had more yards per play, against one of the highest rated teams in DVOA history, so I imagine they'll look pretty good

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by JustAnotherMatt (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:03pm

[I'll put this into the proper troll format, though it's kind of a serious comment.]

Clearly, the Patriots are ranked TOO HIGH because THEY STARTED RUNNING THE FOUR MINUTE OFFENSE WITH 12 MINUTES LEFT. AND TRAILING BY 10 POINTS. Remembur when Pats' wuz good in the postseason 2, not just in the regular season?

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by jackgibbs :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:22pm

they certainly do seem to suffer from a bit of hubris now that the didn't have earlier in the decade. it seems like they feel like they should be able to dictate the terms of the game to a team no matter what's actually happening on the field.

I don't know how true that was in this game, I guess the jets did a tremendous job in the secondary, but it seemed like from my couch there was always a 3-4 yard outlet open at some point whilst brady was back there writing his memoirs after ducking the initial rush, but their recent philosophy in those situations has been to go for the throat after the coverage breaks down, which in this case it didn't.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by JustAnotherMatt (not verified) :: Sun, 01/16/2011 - 11:34pm

I noticed that they announced players by name in the pre-game intros. And as every Steeler fan knows, 90% of the reason they beat us in the 2001 AFCC was because they all came out as a team, with no individual intros. That, and booking the hotel rooms in advance.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by RickD :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 3:19am

Did they do that? I didn't notice the introductions.

Brady does have a large case of pride that makes me long for the younger, more humble Brady. OTOH, he's a much better QB than he was seven years ago.

What the Patriots really miss right now are Crennel and Weiss yelling at BB when he makes stupid decisions.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Theo :: Mon, 01/17/2011 - 9:23am

Yes, but they came onto the field as one team.

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Re: 2010 AFC Divisional Round Discussion Thread
by Jax (not verified) :: Wed, 01/26/2011 - 1:36am

I would love to see Tom Brady run and scramble a little more. It's seems you have to be more of a dynamic QB in order to be a good play maker.

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