Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Aug 2012

400/200 Yard Bonuses and RB/WR/TE Flex

I need to make both of these adjustments (400 yard bonus in addition to 300 yard bonus for QBs, 200 yard bonuses in addition to 100 yard bonuses for WR/TE/RBs) but my attempts have messed up the results.

Also need to add TE to the RB/WR flex position.

Any ideas?


Posted by: freetacos on 14 Aug 2012

3 replies , Last at 15 Aug 2012, 1:02am by Zac

Re: 400/200 Yard Bonuses and RB/WR/TE Flex
by Aaron Schatz :: Tue, 08/14/2012 - 5:29pm

Yeah. 400 and 200 yard games are so rare that there is no point. Just ignore those bonuses.

Re: 400/200 Yard Bonuses and RB/WR/TE Flex
by phatalbert03 :: Tue, 08/14/2012 - 8:29pm

For adding TE to RB/WR, I think using the setting that combines the TE's with the WR's will work.

Re: 400/200 Yard Bonuses and RB/WR/TE Flex
by Zac :: Wed, 08/15/2012 - 1:02am

To extrapolate on what Aaron's saying, last year in the greatest year for passing offenses that we probably have ever seen, we had a total of 18 games in which a QB had more than 400 yards passing. And they were by 12 different guys. So if it's for example a 5 pt bonus for reaching 400 yards, then you're talking 10 points difference between the guy who gets 2 games and the guy who gets 0. And good luck predicting who it will be. The facts are that you need a lot of luck on your side to get to 400 yards in a game, which makes any predictions anyone might make more prone to error.

And the receiving and rushing games are even less common. There were 14 games in which a player had more than 200 yards receiving over the last 3 seasons, and there were 13 games in which a player had more than 200 yards rushing over the last 3 seasons (by 13 different RBs! over the last 3 seasons, no RB has more than 1 200 yard rushing game!). The amount of random chance involved is even greater, which makes it even harder to be accurate with, for something that isn't really going to make a big difference in the rankings.

For your question about TE flex, I suggest you read my post over in http://www.footballoutsiders.com/discussion/modification-ideas-allow-2-d... .

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