Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Aug 2012

Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers

I'm curious, how would you adjust KUBIAK to account for keepers? Specifically, the auction value should be inflated since most of the top talent will not be in the auction draft.

In my league, we have 14 teams and 2 keepers per team, so 28 of the top players in the league will not be available. This means there is more money chasing a smaller amount of players, particularly elite level players, so the auction prices should be quite a bit higher. I'm just trying to think of a more objective way to adjust for this. Any advice? Auction + 20%? 30%?

Posted by: NicholasWarino on 10 Aug 2012

10 replies , Last at 23 Aug 2012, 12:47pm by Zac

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by Zac :: Sat, 08/11/2012 - 4:37am

Enter the keeper prices in the Picked column (column H), and KUBIAK will calculate adjusted auction values in column DB. For instance, in one of my leagues, I've entered what I assume people's keepers will be, and Ray Rice has jumped from $68 to $82.

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by jason_171 :: Mon, 08/13/2012 - 2:58pm

Just bought this for the first time, absolutely loving playing around with it.

Follow up question on Keepers: for non-auction leagues, would the ranking be affected by simply placing an X in the Picked column then re-running? Put another way, does scarcity at a position impact the rankings of the players?


Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by 0tarin :: Tue, 08/14/2012 - 1:17pm

After running a quick test by simply trying it out, I can't see it taking the 'x' into account at all for my non-auction league set. After consulting the Instructions tab, that seems to make sense:

"To track inflation in an auction keeper league, please enter the salary of all kept players in column H before running the macros.

Please do not use any non-numerical markers such as "x" to mark a kept player, or else the inflation will not properly compute."

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by Zac :: Wed, 08/15/2012 - 12:40am

Presumably for a non-auction league, you don't need the auction dollar values to begin with. Or to answer jason_171's question, no, the rankings aren't affected by positional scarcity. Draft league rankings are based on how each player compares with the baseline at their position. The QB/RB/WR baseline is defined as the last starter at that position (i.e. in a 10 team league, the 10th QB is the last starter, so he is the QB baseline). That baseline doesn't change based on whether someone is kept or not.

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by dryheat :: Tue, 08/21/2012 - 11:32am

Can't you just delete the keepers from the spreadsheet and run it?

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by Zac :: Tue, 08/21/2012 - 11:41pm

Generate the projections after you've deleted players from it? Definitely not. You've told KUBIAK how many players are going to be drafted at every position, and then you deleted some of those players. KUBIAK is going to think that guys are starters who actually aren't starters.

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by dryheat :: Wed, 08/22/2012 - 9:42am

Yeah, now I see that it wouldn't work, since the keepers would be of various positions and throw off the counts.

...although , once the keepers are in and you know the postional distribution, couldn't one adjust the numbers on how many of each position will be drafted? Or does Kubiak not allow that?

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by Aaron Schatz :: Wed, 08/22/2012 - 11:09am

Honestly, the players chosen already don't affect player value in a snake league, only in an auction league. We have it set up with auction functionality if you put the player's salary in the "Picked" column. For a snake league, just mark X in that column and then filter out X rows to see available players.

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by oldebekn :: Thu, 08/23/2012 - 11:50am

I've put the value of the keepers in H before generating. Is the auction beta taking into account that we all have less money than the original $200 budget because of the keepers when computing the inflation?

Re: Adjusting KUBIAK for Keepers
by Zac :: Thu, 08/23/2012 - 12:47pm

You have less money, but presumably all your keepers went for less than they normally would have, which means remaining players go for more money.

For instance, in one of my leagues Arian Foster is being kept for $22. Before figuring inflation, KUBIAK calculated him at $65. It's a 10 team league with a $200 salary cap ($2000 spent overall). Before keepers were calculated, KUBIAK figured out how to distribute that $2000. Foster goes for $22 and now there is $1978 to spend on $1935 worth of talent. The salaries of all available players need to increase to account for the "additional" $43 that can be spent.

I suggest you play around with the auction values a little and see how Column CZ (the Current Auction Value changes). Someone going for less than their projected value increases inflation, while someone going for more than their projected value decreases inflation.

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