Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Aug 2012

Adrian Peterson

According to Kubiak, in a standard PPR scoring system Adrian Peterson is ranked around the 17th RB overall. Even when you ignore the "Risk" adjustment, Adrian Peterson is still only about the 12th RB overall. In my PPR league I have the 12th pick out of 12 (and the 13th pick subsequently) and I firmly believe I have to take one RB with my first two back-to-back picks because of how thin RB is this year. That being said, according to Kubiak Ryan Matthews may have been the guy to take (with MJD and Chris Johnson presumably off the board), but now Matthews is hurt for about 6 weeks. I'm thinking of taking a shot on Adrian Peterson here (and going Welker with the other pick). What does everyone think about taking Adrian Peterson a little earlier than the average draft position says? I think he's worth the risk there, and if not him I'm reaching pretty heavily for Darren McFadden possibly, who is also "Red" for risk. Feedback is greatly appreciated, thanks guys!

Sam

Posted by: dukesb1 on 12 Aug 2012

1 reply , Last at 12 Aug 2012, 11:31pm by J. Winn

1
Re: Adrian Peterson
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Sun, 08/12/2012 - 11:31pm

I would not take Adrian Peterson at the wrap of the first and second round. I would much rather have Ryan Mathews. He may miss the first two or three weeks, but after that you should be getting great production. AP will have to contend with Toby Gerhart, who is no slouch, and his own injury. Tears are generally worse than breaks when it comes to terms of production.

Honestly though, I would take Jamaal Charles. I think he is being highly underrated this year. Sure, Peyton Hillis is in town, but he's Charles has always been in a timeshare. Hillis might pull a disappearing act at any time as well. As for his tear, it's been almost an entire year. It shouldn't be affecting him as much as AP. He's also got an insane YPC for his entire career, and plays on one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL. Barring another injury, which doesn't seem more likely for Charles than it is for anyone else, he will be a top finisher at the position.

I would take AP over McFadden. AP may not be productive at the beginning of the season, but McFadden is far more likely to be out at the end of the season when you're playing for the championship.

I know you weren't looking for advice on Welker, but I would not draft him that early. He will be a strong WR this year in PPR, but he will not replicate his success from last year.

Login or register to post comments