Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

26 Aug 2012

Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews

10 team auction keeper league with pretty standard scoring, no PPR. We have a $200 auction salary cap and I already have McCoy signed for $32 ($168 draft budget). Here are my (legit) keeper options and signing price. I can keep only one of these guys and we can sign a player for up to 2 years.

Ray Rice: $60 ($108 draft budget)
Cam Newton: $22 ($146 draft budget)
Ryan Mathews: $19 ($149 draft budget)

I am tempted to keep Rice, but that will basically be half my cap room spent on two guys at one position. The thought of 2 of the 3 top RBs on one team may be too much for me to pass on. Mathews may be a good value, but I hate that he is already hurt. I'm a little hesitant on Newton just because of the potential for a sophomore slump and I'm usually don't put too much value on the QB position.

What do you guys think?

Posted by: Ten Drink Drunk on 26 Aug 2012

6 replies , Last at 04 Sep 2012, 1:42pm by Kurt

Re: Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews
by socctty :: Sun, 08/26/2012 - 9:08pm

I've never done an auction league, so I'm interested in teh responses here. Rice + McCoy sounds sick though.

What kind of team could you put together with the remaining $108?

Re: Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews
by Kurt :: Mon, 08/27/2012 - 1:54pm

It depends on how much money is being saved on other peoples' keepers. Rice for $60 sounds like market value in a non-keeper league, but if everyone has a bunch of McCoy-for-$32 type deals, maybe Rice would be bid up into the seventies, and he'd be the guy to keep.

Can you trade Newton or Mathews' keeper rights for someone you like better?

Re: Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews
by Ten Drink Drunk :: Mon, 08/27/2012 - 7:31pm

I broached the topic of trading keeper rights, but I don't think it is an option before this years draft, but may be for next year.

There are some other value RBs that are/probably will be kept, but I won't know for sure until after I submit my keeper selection.

I'm leaning towards Rice. I played with some numbers and can probably field a starting squad I'm happy with, but will have little depth at any position. I would generally favor depth, but this fantasy RB dream team (at least if they achieve near their projections) is just too tempting I think.

Re: Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews
by J. Winn (not verified) :: Wed, 08/29/2012 - 12:21pm

I wouldn't keep Mathews, because you'll probably be able to get him for cheap if you really want him anyway. Newton for 22 is a great value, and I imagine the other top 5 QBs from last year will all be kept or will go for much more than 22. Rice is obviously incredible, but I don't know if you're getting great value for him.

I would probably keep Newton, and shore up your RBs with some more affordable options like Jamaal Charles.

Re: Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews
by Ten Drink Drunk :: Tue, 09/04/2012 - 1:09pm

I ended up keeping Rice and McCoy. A lot of the affordable options at RB were also being kept. I think I may regret not keeping Newton, but we'll see how the season plays out I guess. Here's the full roster that I was able to get with $108:

QB: Peyton Manning
RB1: McCoy (kept)
RB2: R. Rice (kept)
WR1: D. Bowe
WR2: V. Jackson
FLEX: Donald Brown
TE: A. Hernandez
K: R. Gould
DST: Bears
BN: David Wilson
BN: Daniel Thomas
BN: Demaryius Thomas
BN: Mike Williams (Stupid I know)
BN: Russell Wilson

I'm fairly happy overall, but have some concerns at WR2 and little to no depth if one of my RBs gets hurt. I'm hoping David Wilson emerges as a strong flex play at some point. Russell Wilson was a homer pick and I'm prepared to seek out other options if Peyton can't stay healthy. Thoughts?

Re: Auction Keeper Question: Rice, Newton or Mathews
by Kurt :: Tue, 09/04/2012 - 1:42pm

Honestly, the rest of the team looks a bit light. Assuming Gould, Bears, Daniel Thomas, Williams and Russell Wilson all went for a buck, it seems like $100 should have gotten a bit more than the other seven guys. I would have splurged for a clear WR1 instead of spreading the money among 3 WR2/3 types - in a 10 teamer with a short bench, playable WR pickups should be very easy to come by, and in general almost all of your money should go to the stars.

Hey, you asked ;)

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