Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

06 Aug 2012

Auction values too aggressive

Using a fairly standard league setup (only changes 6 points for QB TD, 1 flex spot) and Aggressiveness set to the minimum (1), I still get auction results where the top few RBs are given auction values of almost half my budget ($470, $464, and $421 out of $1000 respectively).

I typically see the top RBs in our draft go for $300 - $350. The Kubiak values are also way higher than top auction values on sites like CBS. So does this mean the Kubiak values are out of whack, or should I jump on Ray Rice or Arian Foster at $400 and consider this a bargain?

(Note - I see that the top few QBs and TEs are similarly overpriced, but the top WRs are priced in line with what I'd expect.)

Posted by: jrbdmb on 06 Aug 2012

8 replies , Last at 10 Aug 2012, 3:41pm by L

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by bird jam :: Mon, 08/06/2012 - 5:37pm

The market is determined by what people are willing to pay in each individual league. KUBIAK is not telling you that number. It is telling you, based upon your league's scoring system, what type of value to expect those players to bring.

If your league doesn't spend as much on RBs as KUBIAK suggests, then the market is obviously lower at the top end of that position than KUBIAK would expect (and most likely higher somewhere else). That doesn't mean to go out and spend what KUBIAK says guys are worth if nobody else would spend that much.

Use KUBIAK to figure out where the values are in your auction, not as a hard-and-fast price list of what you should pay.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by alien1rock :: Mon, 08/06/2012 - 5:54pm

Are you sure you aren't changing anything else? How many teams in your league? If I download a fresh Kubiak, and change nothing but passing TDs to 6, auction budget to $1,000, and aggressiveness to 1, I get $381 as the high price.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by bird jam :: Tue, 08/07/2012 - 9:42am

He said he added a flex spot too.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by alien1rock :: Tue, 08/07/2012 - 10:07am

A flex is included by default, and adding another flex doesn't produce those results either.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by jrbdmb :: Tue, 08/07/2012 - 4:58pm

I had also reduced the number bench spots from 5 to 4 ... sorry for the oversight.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by alien1rock :: Tue, 08/07/2012 - 5:13pm

That raises the values a little bit, but not to where you are saying. I see Rice at $424 changing the bench to 4 and all of the other changes.

I will say that, especially for an auction draft, most players are still basing their values off of something standard like what ESPN or CBS produces. So it could be that you have stumbled onto something special about your league rules that makes the higher players worth more than what is typical, which is valuable information. Or, you could just have an error in the spreadsheet or something.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by nkowal :: Fri, 08/10/2012 - 9:31am

If you look at ESPN their rankings have Foster as 30% of total budget amount (60 of $200) for a 10 team league. Increasing the number of teams to 12 with their "customer value generator" and putting in less bench roster spots means his value goes up to 40%.

It's not quite as aggressive as the numbers you're seeing, but with such a short bench it makes sense to be more aggressive on the top guys.

Re: Auction values too aggressive
by L (not verified) :: Fri, 08/10/2012 - 3:41pm

Keep in mind what the auction value is supposed to mean. It does not mean people in your league will spend such and such. It does not even mean you should spend that amount. It is instead a 'max value' number given your budget.

It is simply a formula that says the following: Given the points this player is expected to produce with your league settings, it would be reasonable to spend up to this amount. Think of it as a price ceiling rather than an estimate of cost. That is the major difference between these auction numbers and Yahoo, ESPN, etc.

In other words, the Kubiak number should be a red flag number. When the price for a player approaches the auction value in Kubiak, Kubiak is telling you, "if you spend more than this, you are likely to be wasting your money." With that in mind, you should be targeting players that you could buy in your auction for $250 but have a Kubiak auction value of $400. That is how to use Kubiak, if you want to use those numbers.

Hopefully, that helps.

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