Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Aug 2009

Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?

I just did a 12 team draft last night, pretty standard league (4TD passing, no PPR). I got the second pick, which was randomized 30 minutes before the draft. In a way, the way it fell I wish I had a later pick. I'm not sure if the middle or towards the end, but I think I would have better been able to take advantage of some unusual picks (some homer-based optimism). As it was, I ended up with some serious depth at RB. I also wish I had a couple more roster spots, since there are a couple WR fliers I'd like, and I also wouldn't mind having a throw-away slot since my K and TE have the same bye. I have one slot used up with a handcuff, but I think it's worthwhile insurance. I was also extra-medicated (Rx, not booze) during the draft thanks to a pretty bad headache that caused me to miss work.

The results: I ended up with ADP with the second pick, after Brady (first pick was autodrafting).
1.02 Adrian Peterson
2.11 Calvin Johnson
3.02 Ronnie Brown
4.11 Antonio Gates
5.02 Knowshon Moreno
6.11 Jonathan Stewart
7.02 Ben Roethlisberger
8.11 Julius Jones
9.02 Donald Driver
10.11 Rashard Mendenhall
11.02 Ted Ginn Jr.
12.11 Chester Taylor
13.02 Nate Burleson
14.11 Carolina
15.02 Nate Kaeding

At 3.02, MB3 and Steve Smith were also on the board. I hesitated on Smith with his shoulder injury, and I think Brown may be over his injury completely. I also have ADP and MB3 in another league, so I wanted to hedge my bets a little bit.

I wish I had a little better WR. In retrospect, I probably could have grabbed Gonzo and/or V Jackson in my 4 or 5 slot, which likely ends up Gonzo + Z Miller vs Gates + Driver. On the other hand, I start a run. Reggie Wayne went 2.12, or I might have done a RB-WR-WR start.

I know I needed a starting WR in R6, but Stewart was too juicy to pass up after the WRs I liked got taken (V Jackson, Holmes). I'm hoping J Jones starts off well and becomes nice trade bait. He, and Mendenhall, were too hard to pass up at those positions. I've seen an article with Driver/Ginn, Jr being a good platoon that can give WR2 numbers, so I'll do that for now. I do think Ginn may take a step forward. I thought Burleson was the safest of my WR sleepers, with high upside if Seattle rebounds, and word out of camp is he's looking 100%. Josh Morgan is also still available (and C Henry, Curtis)

Campbell is available as a backup QB, but has same bye as Big Ben. Bulger, Quinn, Collins, Hill, and QB Minn are all out there, too. I'm keeping eye on some of the battles before giving up one of my players. If Big Ben bounces back in TDs, I won't need to use another QB much. If I passed on Big Ben, I probably would have taken E Royal.

I'm so deep in RB, but I don't want to drop any, but I'll need to drop someone. There's some good fliers out on the WW, especially since some backup K and Def were taken. Anyone have any thoughts?

Posted by: Marcumzilla on 12 Aug 2009

6 replies , Last at 14 Aug 2009, 9:17am by Marcumzilla

1
Re: Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?
by AndyB :: Wed, 08/12/2009 - 5:30pm

This Miami Dolphin fan can give you some thoughts on Ronnie and Ginn.

Ronnie Brown: He's over 18 months removed from his ACL. In 2007, prior to his ACL, he was tearing up the league in total yardage. 2009 is his contract year and the word is that the Phins will be running Ronnie behind Jake Long/Justin Smiley a lot this year. I expect big things from Ronnie, even though Ricky Williams and Patrick Cobbs will get reps.

Ted Ginn: Who knows? The only comfort I have that he'll contribute is that he is the solid #1 guy in Miami. Sparano's letting Camarillo, Bess, and Patrick Turner get reps with the first team, but those guys are all getting action opposite Ginn. He's entrenched as the starter. For good reason, I would assume.

2
Re: Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?
by Zheng :: Wed, 08/12/2009 - 8:23pm

Ronnie won me the office league in '07 so I, too, am expecting big things from him.

I don't know if I would have taken Gates with the 4th pick, but it seems to have turned out okay for you.

I think Big Ben will do better this year as well. Surely his O-line will be better this year? I'm not thrilled about any of your waiver QB options, but KUBIAK is really high on Tarvaris... if he plays.

You'll have to keep an eye on the training camp reports to see whether to cut JStew or Rashard. Either of which would hurt a bit.

3
Re: Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?
by thestar5 :: Thu, 08/13/2009 - 3:08am

You absolutely must pick up Josh Morgan in my opinion. He's going to be the Niners #1 WR, he's a huge upgrade over Nate Burleson and even Ginn IMO.

I would have definitely goen with MB3 over Brown, but that is just a personal opinion.

I wouldn't drop any of your RB but just try to trade one of them for a better WR as the season goes on. I also wouldn't worry too much about a backup QB, none of those other guys will be nearly as good as Big Ben and his bye week isn't until late IIRC.

4
Re: Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?
by Marcumzilla :: Thu, 08/13/2009 - 6:39pm

I'm really torn there. I think Burleson will get a good number of balls as well, and he might not have to start the season catching them from Alex Smith.

I had MB3 rated higher, but I think Brown has more upside. And I was hesitant to have two leagues with the same two starting RBs, where one injury kills two leagues.

I agree about QB. That's why I didn't pick up any.

5
Re: Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?
by Slade (not verified) :: Fri, 08/14/2009 - 5:47am

Barber I think is being sort of undervalued this year. Yeah Felix Jones might steal touches, but I have to think they'll be running more as well. That's really neither here nor there.

I like that you picked a top tier TE, although you might have been able to wait for round 5 unless the TE run had already started. I don't like that you waited until the ninth round to pick up a second WR. Given that AP and Brown are clear starts throughout the season, did you really need to take three more running backs before a second WR? Dunno what was available in the fourth/fifth/sixth rounds, but I would definitely have been on the lookout for a wideout in those rounds.

6
Re: Aug 11 Yahoo draft for work league, any thoughts?
by Marcumzilla :: Fri, 08/14/2009 - 9:17am

Since I was drafting from the two spot, end of 4, beginning of 5 wasn't terribly different.

I picked up the other running backs thinking "trade bait" (particularly if J Jones gets off to a good start). I saw a bit of a dropoff after S Holmes in the sixth, and he got picked right before me. At that point it was definitely down to a lower tier that wasn't going to go so quickly.

Now that I know RBs ended up dropping so far, to do it over again I'd probably grab Gonzalez at 5.02 instead of Moreno.

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