Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Jun 2009

Biggest Underdraft?

Our fantasy question of the day: Which player do you think is most likely to be underdrafted in 2009 fantasy drafts?

For example, this time last year, you might have said Thomas Jones (whose ADP was somewhere in the fifth round of most leagues, IIRC).

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 09 Jun 2009

22 replies , Last at 10 Jul 2009, 9:34pm by hoochiemama

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by c_f (not verified) :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 2:31pm

Whoever had abnormally low touchdowns last season. TDs fluctuate every year for most players and fantasy team owners have very short memories. Jones is a great example because he scored 2 TDs in 2007. This year, maybe Ryan Grant and Thomas' brother Julius. Reggie Wayne.

On the flip side, players coming off of career years, especially in terms of TDs, will be overdrafted. DeAngelo Williams and Lance Moore will be overdrafted this year because of their TDs.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by tuluse :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 2:50pm

I think Ryan Grant continues to struggle. They don't have Favre there anymore to make the o-line look good no matter what, and they haven't made any changes that should significantly improve it.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Danish Denver-Fan :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 2:39pm

Kyle Orton, maybe? Had a decent year last year (when healthy) and is stepping into an offense that features top-5 protection and elite recievers.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Dan :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 2:51pm

Here's one for each position, with current ADP:

QB Matt Schaub (7.03, QB10) - look at last year's stats when he played
RB Cedric Benson (6.09, RB30) - lots of value in the Rudi Johnson role if the offense bounces back
WR Devin Hester (9.01, WR37) - Jay Cutler; and looked like a legit WR by the end of last year
TE Dustin Keller (13.01, TE13) - the Jets' #2 receiver

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Temo :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 4:03pm

Based on Dan's link above:

Rashard Mendenhall, if he's as good as some believe he is.
Jerious Norwood, if Michael Turner feels the weight of his carries next year.
Devin Hester, who may actually be a decent WR
Miles Austin, because I think he's the #1 receiver in Dallas (for better or worse)
Chris Cooley, who may be the 3rd best TE in football.
Dallas Defense, which is bound to regress to the mean (upwards, that is) in terms of turnovers
Neil Rackers, who should be higher than the other kickers.

I think the QBs are pretty well valued, except maybe Jason Campbell should be a bit higher. Also, it looks like Aaron Rodgers is way overvalued.

by Yer X-MOM (not verified) :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 3:05pm

D Hixon and K Curtis maybe. Hard to tell. Hixon for sure though.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Yer X-MOM (not verified) :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 3:21pm

Wow... Larry Johnson at #59 on ADP. I mean, I know the curse, but does it kill a career or just the following season's risk of injury?

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Temo :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 3:43pm

Well, there's that and the fact that he's getting up there in age. I don't trust many RBs past their age 26 or 27 seasons.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Theo :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 4:30pm

Hi, I've heard you're a big fan but how about Dan Orlovski.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Temo :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 4:31pm

Damn. I got tired of my own dumb joke the second time I did it and now you're just going to annoy me with it.

I hate you.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by drobviousso :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 3:31pm

Based on the ADP that Dan linked to above
QB Joe Flacco (13.05, QB23) I just don't see him undrafted in a 10 team league
RB Joseph Addai (4.05, RB21) He had a down year with a messed up line and an injured QB.
WR Laveranues Coles (7.12, WR33) He'll be the #1 in targets from Carson Palmer
TE Brent Celek (14.03, TE20) Really?
DEF New England Defense (13.03, DEF10) I expect the overhaul on the 2ndary to work
PK Neil Rackers (15.02, PK 9) Offense should score, that's about my only criteria for PK

I feel the most sure about Coles, and the least about Addai.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by moses74 (not verified) :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 5:12pm

Pierre Garcon

But that may be rampant Colts homerism.

Concur with the Norwood assessment. Pierre Thomas (you have to think Sean Payton has finally realised that the plan to feature Reggie at the expense of actual success is detrimental to the team's chances). Whoever is behind Steve Slaton on the depth chart of the Texans.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by BigDerf :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 7:33pm

Round 11 Pick 3 Seems reallly low for Leon Washington.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by theprophecy :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 8:00pm

Larry Johnson, Joseph Addai, Jerious Norwood, and David Garrard.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Junkie (not verified) :: Tue, 06/09/2009 - 9:51pm

Donald Brown and Percy Harvin.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Key19 :: Wed, 06/10/2009 - 12:09am

Roy E. Williams: I think too many people think he sucks for him to be drafted fittingly. Hopefully all of those people are in my league because I expect a good year from him.
Marques Colston: Missed lots of time last season, Lance Moore emerged, etc. I think people assume Lance will take away from him, but I think he'll just take away from what Lance was getting.
Jake Delhomme maybe? I think everyone has the Playoff game burned into their memories.
Joey Galloway maybe? He wasn't signed for no reason... And he should be around late enough I would imagine.
Not sure how people view Darren McFadden, but I think an injury-plagued rookie season plus the fact that most people tend to avoid Raiders players would lead to him being undervalued.
Martellus Bennett: From what I've heard from Dallas OTAs, Martellus is getting very integrated into the offense. Lots of two-TE sets in the offense now (for good reason). He should have a nice season.
Owen Daniels: This guy always seems undervalued. He was one of my best players last year, but most people in my league scoffed at my assertion that he was becoming one of the best TEs in the league. Low TD total didn't help his PR. I will take him again this year and hopefully he'll come up big.
David Garrard: Barring another O-line implosion, he should be solid.
Chad Ochocinco??? After last year, I can't imagine his stock would be very high. But I guess without T.J. it could be. I guess it would help if I knew what others think his value is.
Braylon Edwards: Trading for him the week before he blew up last season was one of my greatest Fantasy moments. Of course, most of the weeks that followed were not that great, but whatever. I had my moment of glory. I think he rebounds a bit this year and I think that most people think he still can't catch anything.

I would love to say Santonio Holmes, but like Delhomme, I think the Playoffs will be the lasting image of him, and he was great. I was looking forward to a good value on him this year, but looks like I won't get that.

Last but not least:

Felix Jones: Barring another unfortunate injury, I think this guy is going to tear up PPR leagues. He has been all over the field in OTAs, and I really think that he will be one of the main focal points of Dallas' offense this year. I think people will be a bit shy to draft him because of Barber and Choice, but I think he could end up being the best Fantasy back of the three (unless Barber just dominates the end zone again). If he fulfills his potential, he will definitely be undervalued.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by sswoods (not verified) :: Wed, 06/10/2009 - 3:48am

QB-Roethlisberger -- Schedule last season was brutal, not nearly as tough this year (Thank you AFC West); I think he's hitting 30 TD's.
QB-Hasselbeck -- The offense will rebound a little, and I'm no believer that Julius Jones and TJ Duckett will garner a large pct. of the team's TD's.
RB-Gore -- I think it'll come down to him and Peterson for #1 RB by season's end.
RB-Maroney -- He's healthy now; even with the aged Fred Taylor, Maroney is the most talented back on that roster.
WR-Hines Ward -- He produces every year. Plus, see Big Ben.
WR-Chambers -- An ADP of 39 among WR's is low -- he'll be a solid #2 WR.
TE-Boss -- Someone's going to catch Eli's TD's. Perhaps the guy who led the team in TD receptions a year ago?

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Justin Zeth :: Wed, 06/10/2009 - 7:32am

Careful with Steelers passing game guys - the easier a time the Steelers have beating their opponents, the less they throw. The cakewalk schedule's going to mean a lot of games where they're up 21-6 at halftime and quit throwing the ball altogether.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by sswoods (not verified) :: Wed, 06/10/2009 - 10:57am

I'm looking at the Steelers' offense as a whole. They've scored 42, 39, 43, and 35 offensive touchdowns the last four years respectively. Last season's total was suppressed due to the extremely difficult defensive schedule they faced; this year looks to be smoother than even two years ago when Big Ben went over 30 TDs. Considering the offense has not lost any potency and is healthy (always a factor), I full expect the Steelers to post 42-45 offensive TD's this year. I like Big Ben to not only pass for a healthy percentage of those, but to run a couple in as well. My 2 cents, anyway.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by tonic889 (not verified) :: Wed, 06/10/2009 - 7:55pm

People overlook the fact that in between Super Bowl wins, the Steelers have transitioned from a team whose offense is carried by the running game to a team whose offense is carried by the passing game. Now adays, the running game is a complement to Big Ben, instead of vice versa.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by Marver :: Mon, 06/22/2009 - 8:02pm

Roethlisberger, Addai, Cooley all solid mentions. I'll throw Ahmad Bradshaw and San Diego Defense into the mix.

Re: Biggest Underdraft?
by hoochiemama :: Fri, 07/10/2009 - 9:34pm

Guys I think are values on draft day:
Schaub- productive and has weapons. Solid 8 YPA is nothing to sneeze at.
Hasselbek- They play poor pass defenses and he will be more underrated coming off injury.

Mendenhall- burned many owners. Mewelde was actually more productive over FWP. Look for the Stillers to get Rashard in the game.
Felix Jones- If I was a MBIII I would be worried.Barber may get the fourth quarter grind yards but I see Felix getting the Fantasy points.

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