Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Jul 2010

Broncos

I just finished their chapter in FOA, a chapter that seemed so pessimistic that I'm inclined to bet heavily on the under for their win total (currently 7.5). Um, not that I would, because gambling is illegal.

I'm just curious about the mean wins in your 2010 projections for them, it seems quite high for a team that seems to have many problems. Is Clady playing 16 games in these forecasts? Is Jamal Williams? Personally I think neither player logs more than six this year.

Posted by: Zack on 15 Jul 2010

2 replies , Last at 15 Jul 2010, 7:19pm by Aaron Schatz

1
Re: Broncos
by theshadowj :: Thu, 07/15/2010 - 4:49pm

It's their schedule. Since they're in the AFC west, they have the 28th hardest schedule in the league, according to the projections.

2
Re: Broncos
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 07/15/2010 - 7:19pm

I mention this somewhere in the Toolbox: We did two sets of variables for the simulations. In Weeks 1-7, we penalize the Broncos for the Clady injury and we have Leftwich as Steelers quarterback. In Weeks 8-17, we don't penalize the Broncos and we have Roethlisberger as Steelers quarterback.

This is actually tied to a number of the more surprising projections, if you consider that the teams playing Pittsburgh during that period include Atlanta, Miami, and Tampa Bay.

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