Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Sep 2011

Buy Low Targets

Looking at Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Lloyd, or Dez Bryant as a buy-low target in 0.5PPR league.

I have not watched Nicks or Lloyd, which makes it difficult for me to get a read on their talent levels. But I would basically break this into five main components. I am hoping some homers or people familiar with the players can help me break them down:

1. Natural talent(in my mind, this represents a baseline for fantasy production)
2. Quarterback play (encompasses O-Line performance)
3. Coverage & other receivers that will draw attention
4. Defense (bad defense should be a bonus for receivers, who are likely to get more opportunities if their team is constantly playing from behind and throwing deep as a result)
5. Injury Risk

I like Nicks and Dez ahead of Lloyd in terms of raw talent, although I think Nicks gets a slight boost even over Dez because my impression is that his skillset is more polished. I think Dez is tops in terms of QB play, and Eli and Orton are basically equivalent. As a Cowboys fan I know that Romo prioritizes getting the ball to Dez when he's fully healthy. In terms of coverage situations, all three have very talented receivers playing alongside them, such as Miles Austin, Eric Decker, and Mario Manningham. I call it even. The Broncos easily have the worst defense, which should be a little boon to Lloyd, although it's difficuly to quantify the value of a small increase in opportunities (I think it averages out to 1.5-2 more TD's per season).

Lastly, the injury risk for all three players is significant. Nicks, wickedly productive when healthy, seems to be playing hurt all the time. Dez has been gimpy lately and although I would not consider him injury prone just yet, certainly has not shown the consistency the Cowboys would like to see. I think it caps the upside for both players. Not sure what the perception of Lloyd's injury risk is.

All said, I like Nicks the most, then Dez, then Lloyd. Anyone familiar with them care to comment?

Posted by: Arjen.Robben on 30 Sep 2011

1 reply , Last at 01 Oct 2011, 9:43am by fantasy1123

1
Re: Buy Low Targets
by fantasy1123 :: Sat, 10/01/2011 - 9:43am

That's how I'd rank them. Hicks is the more polished talent and huge part of NYGs offense but banged up knee some concern. Dez is a beast raw talent but is always banged up and Romo's ribs are going to take weeks to heal and is one big hit from going out again. Lloyd's value is limited as a function of Fox's conservative offense, plus looks like Orton may be heading to the bench soon.

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