Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

23 Oct 2009

Bye Week Blues-No Rice

10 Team Non-PPR League.
Standard Scoring (1 pt per 10 yards. 6 pts per Rush/Rec TDs)
Start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, and 1FLEX (RB or WR):

B Jacobs
C Benson
Ricky Williams
L Johnson

L Fitzgerald
R White
M Colston
S Smith (NYG)
S Breaston

I'm leaning towards the following.
RB R Williams
RB Benson
WR Fitz
WR White
WR Colston
FLEX Smith

I think it comes down to Smith Jacobs and R Williams. Which of those three sits?

Posted by: dutchtreat on 23 Oct 2009

6 replies , Last at 24 Oct 2009, 12:50pm by dutchtreat

by Snowglare :: Fri, 10/23/2009 - 9:35pm

With the Cards' run D and the way Jacobs is playing, I think it's safe to sit him now. I don't like Ricky's chances at double digit carries in a potential blowout, but bizarrely, he seems like the better play. Smith had his worst game of the season last week and still gained 44 yards. The Giants will get some scores through the air, and there's a good chance Smith'll have one of them and a bunch of yards. I'd stick with him.

Re: Bye Week Blues-No Rice
by dutchtreat :: Fri, 10/23/2009 - 10:58pm

Thanks for the advice Snowglare. I just don't trust Jacobs at this point, I imagine NYG will air it out, and Ricky will probably be in a blowout, but Miami seems to run it regardless of score.

I made a poor move with the waiver wire yesterday and I hope it doesn't cost me this week. I had the 10th wavier wire spot, and Maroney slipped past me ( I had Breaston as my top priority, thinking Maroney would be picked in all of the 9 spots ahead of me). Anyways my opponent picked him up today during the 2nd round of waiver pick-ups.

BTW, last week I did play S Smith and B Jacobs (with Colston and Mason on the bench) and got lucky...thanks to Rice and solid games from A Rodgers, Fitz, White, and H Miller.

How is that a poor move?
by Snowglare :: Sat, 10/24/2009 - 11:37am

Eh, I'd rather have Breaston than any Pats RB. I wouldn't feel confident starting Maroney over any of your other backs with the way Belichick runs that carousel. Maybe he gets twenty carries against a putrid Tampa Bay defense - he should - or maybe BenJarvus Green-Ellis gets fifteen carries for no apparent reason, and Maroney disappears everytime they near the goal-line. Meanwhile, Faulk's in on 3rd downs, deflating everyone's value.

As the "starter," Morris only reached double digits in non-PPR once, and the Tennessee game marked the first time Maroney or Faulk topped that plateau. It's all one big headache.

Re: How is that a poor move?
by dutchtreat :: Sat, 10/24/2009 - 12:46pm

Long term, I'd rather have Breaston.

Re: Bye Week Blues-No Rice
by Fontes of Wayne :: Sat, 10/24/2009 - 10:30am

You've learned an important lesson - even if you're sure he'll be claimed, the guy you want most has to be your top priority.
Anyway, I agree that Smith is your flex, and I think your RB2 is a toss-up between Williams, Jacobs, and even LJ (who has a better matchup and isn't sharing carries). If your gut is telling you Ricky, then you might as well go that way.

Re: Bye Week Blues-No Rice
by dutchtreat :: Sat, 10/24/2009 - 12:50pm

Hopefully, it's not an expensive lesson, but I'll find out Tuesday Morning. You are right, never assume your opponents needs. I do like Smith this week to fill a 4 WR set. I was thinking about LJ too with his full carries. It's a toss up at this point and I like Williams the best, with his 50 yards rushing, and 3-4 receptions for 50 yards. I am always just looking for 10 points out of this position.

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