Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Jul 2010

Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic

This might have been addressed in one of the other threads, but are the Charger's projections based on Vincent Jackson and Marcus McNeil playing a full 16 games? The length of their holdouts are unpredictable, so would their current projections be the best case scenario? Then would their "new" projections skew towards losing? Meaning the projections for On the Clock jump to 10% and Loserville jump to 30%?

Granted their schedule is easy (AFC West is in shambles, NFC West except for the Cardinals are crippled, AFC South except for the Colts are beatable) but missing the steak and potatoes of their offense might mean famine. Unless, Norv can work his head coaching magic....bad joke, I'm a tortured Chargers fan and hate Turner.

Posted by: speedegg on 10 Jul 2010

13 replies , Last at 26 Oct 2010, 4:21am by ammek

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Big Johnson :: Tue, 07/13/2010 - 1:40am

oh come on turner is doing fine! Hes no worse than half of the headcoaches in the league.

I was wondering the same thing with the predictions. They seem low to me and was wondering if the two holdouts were the main ingredient.

and for the record, the chiefs aint winning 8 games! The projections for their passing game are too high, theres no way a team can win regularly with its top two receivers being chambers and bowe.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by ammek :: Tue, 10/26/2010 - 4:21am


Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Chris S. (not verified) :: Wed, 07/14/2010 - 2:11am

Big J- I am a disappointed Chargers fan too, but I am more frustrated with the Chargers scouting directors and drafting staff more than anything. For instance, last year one of the main reasons that Antonio Cromartie was picked on so much was the inabilty for our defensive ends and linebacking core to create a signifigant pass rush on the opposing teams. We were behind the Detroit Lions (or anyone else in the league) in QB sacks. Yet, the Chargers release Cromartie and then fail to address this problem in the draft. Instead we trade up to number 12 and take Ryan Matthews. It's not so much that I think that Matthews is a bad pick, rather it's just where we got him. Why in the hell would you give up your 1st round (28th pick), 2nd round, and 4th round pick AND THEN give up ILB Tim Dobbins for Matthews?? Would Miami have taken him? I think thats highly unlikely since they have a young franchise RB. What about Philly?? Not with Lesean McCoy. How about the Seahawks? with Justin Forsett and (at the time) Pete Carroll getting LenDale White, the odds were highly unlikely. Not to mention Matthews is a bruisng back and uses his body as a battering ram. This type of RB typically doesn't have a long career. Just look at his 2009 stats from beginning of the year until the end. We do not focus on value of draft picks and that is going to haunt us for a while. Also, we all know that Marcus McNeil is injury prone. If he takes one more bad shot to the neck, his career may be over. No OT was taken in the draft either. Just pathetic!! Please if anyone else can comment on this, please do.. I am open to anyone's opinion.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by speedegg :: Thu, 07/15/2010 - 2:21am

No, you're right. I'm confused on what GM A.J. Smith was thinking on some of his draft moves and player management. He's either panicking, rebuilding, or lost it.

Cromartie was let go for an undisclosed draft pick in 2011, but his replacement Antoine Cason has struggled for playing time. So, the Chargers acquire CB Donald Strickland (who?) and Nathan Vasher. Vasher played for Ron Rivera in Chicago, so it makes sense to get him, if only to serve as a mentor for Cason.

DT Jamal Williams was let go, they pass on several potential DT and finally pick DT Cam Thomas in the 5TH ROUND? On top of that, they let go their other DTs? Maybe the Chargers will change from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3, but they don't have the defensive ends or linebackers for that. Or maybe some of the players are ignoring there coaches due to Norvalicious.

I wonder if Schottenheimer had a few more years would the team have won the Superbowl.....

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Chris S. (not verified) :: Sat, 07/17/2010 - 1:18pm

You know, I don't believe that the problem is Norv's play calling. He has proven to be an excellent play caller on the offensive side of the football. I think the problem is on the defensive side. Ted Cotrell was just a horrible coordinator and then he gave way to Ron Rivera, who is a tick below average himself. For instance, I saw a game is where the opposing teams offense was lined up in a two RB one tight end alignment (to the rush end side). The ideal call for this is a Stack Gopher Go Cover 2. The front line all does a rip technique away from the tight end side, while the linebackers play a hook or curl zone in the middle. The corners and suppoosed to play the flat zone and the safteys both play a deep 1/2 of the field about 12 yards off of the line of scrimmage. Rivera seemed to call a modified version of this, BUT he made the cornerbacks play man on the receivers. The opposing teams receivers kept running an out route to the sidelines and picking up catches. Rivera should have told his CB's either to widen their stance and push the receivers inside towards the LB's or the Safety's, or he could have CB'S play the flat, which would cause the receivers to widen their route and take an extra long time to get open. Instead Rivera decided to keep the same old game plan and get beat consistently. Now I understand that Rivera is a professional, but if you don't get creative on the defensive side of the football and make the proper adjustments, you will get burned. I hope Cason does well this year, but he will need a lot of help from the pass rush.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by JuridianSantaal... :: Sat, 07/17/2010 - 7:11pm

It's kind of funny, I remember a few years ago the Chargers being one of the most talented rosters in the league from top to bottom. Since Schottenheimer left, its just been the systematic loss of talent on this time. This team used to be a dominant AFC powerhouse, now its just more like all those Seahawks teams that continued to win the NFCW by not being good, but by being less sucky than the rest of their division.

I like Matthews a lot as a talent, but a bruising RB was not the problem that needed to be addressed for this team when it did. The defense was abysmal and has actually shed some of its better players. Their #1 WR and LT are holding out and they were kind of just strung together by Philip Rivers being one of the best QBs in the league.

We've also seen this in all Norv Turner teams, a general lack of discipline as a unit. A good coach brings out the best in their players (Schott, Parcells, Vermeil), and Norv never seems to get anything extraordinary out of any of his players except for maybe QB.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Chris S. (not verified) :: Sun, 07/18/2010 - 12:15am

I agree. The one thing that Norv lacks is a spine to his players. A perfect example of that was Brian Billick in Baltimore. The Ravens had one of the best defensive rosters in all of football, but from 2001-2007 Billick could not tame their personalities off of the field. He never held them accountable for the dilinquent activities that they participated in (Jamal's cociane usage, Chris McCallisters late night binge drinking before a game) and look where it got him.... A one way ticket out the door and directly into the unemployement line. Now luckily for Billick his intellectual vernacular got him into the announcement booth, but that wouldn't happen for Norv. Christ could you imagine 3 hours of Norvalicious announcing a game with that Steve Urkel voice of his??? Not to mention hes got so many craters on his face you could land a lunar module on it.

I don't believe in this "treat them like men at all times" philosophy. That philiosophy has cost us our star receiver for the first 3 fames of the season.It also had costed us playing time for one of our star LB's (Merriman). I say we make an example of Vincent and use him as trade bait.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Big Johnson :: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 5:02am

i am kinda disappointed in the writers assessments when it comes to rivers. i just read the patriots section and they made a reference to how tom brady is either in the top 2 quarterbacks (with peyton) or maybe drew brees squeeked into the top echelon of 3 quarterbacks. Rivers is more dominant than those 3 quarterbacks in dvoa the last 2 years and still isnt considered even in the same tier as them??? Its depressing when you figure that the writers are supposed to be the biggest backers of their stats on here..... yet not even they believe how good rivers is. They even refer in the players section that all things considered Rivers deserved the MVP last season. The depressing part is that the writers dont actually believe rivers deserved the MVP last year.... its just a cover up to defend their prediction. If they believed Rivers was that good they would have included him in the discussion with peyton, brady and brees. And please, no one give me the excuse of quarterback intangibles and all that bullshit, brady was awful in the 4th quarter last year. If he is a "winner" and all that jazz then he wouldnt have been bad in the 4th quarter when it matters.

Sad day football outsiders. You no longer use your "innovative statistics" to back up your "intelligent analysis".

im also curious as to who writes the players section. does anyone know?

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Vincent Verhei :: Sat, 07/24/2010 - 1:55pm

With a few exceptions, player comments are written by the same author who wrote the essay for the team that player was on in 2009.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Chris S. (not verified) :: Fri, 08/13/2010 - 11:44pm

Don't forget Big Johnson, these guys are mostly from the Boston area. I think they are showing a tad bit of bias.... by tad bit I mean a SHITLOAD!

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Aaron Schatz :: Mon, 08/16/2010 - 10:56am

There are as many FO staff members from Seattle (2) and Chicago (2) as there are from Boston (2).

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by Chris S. (not verified) :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 9:59am

Touche Mr. Schatz.

Re: Charger's Projections, Holdouts, and Norvalicious Magic
by tally :: Wed, 09/01/2010 - 1:37am

Whoa, talk about delayed reaction.

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