Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Sep 2010

CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?

My league gives 6pts/PTD and -1pt/sack, which boosted Manning significantly above the other QBs (~60 point difference between him and Brees according to KUBIAK). I could have taken him #1 overall but went with the consensus pick instead, hoping to nab him on the way back.

The drop from CJ to MJD is only projected to be about 20 points, and the jump from Brady to Manning is projected to be 60 points, so this trade would seem like a no-brainer, but I'm concerned about MJD's health and to a lesser extent, Manning sitting during my playoff weeks 15 & 16. Should I propose this trade anyway?

Posted by: tally on 08 Sep 2010

7 replies , Last at 17 Sep 2010, 1:39pm by tally

1
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by lang55 :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 3:43am

KUBIAK had a ton of love for Manning even in the 4 pts/TD and no penalty for sacks scoring used in my league. My gut says that CJ+Brady is going to be better than MJD+Manning overall. But, it's a little six in one hand, half a dozen in the other, as far as what can be predicted at this point. Also, KUBIAK is supposed to be just a guide only, and gets updated after week 4. See how those numbers look in the update.

How'd you do in week 1? I might see how things are going after week 2 or 3 before throwing this trade out there. Despite the consistency from all four players recently, I'm share your concern about MJD's knee as well as Manning, not just for the playoffs, but for how that team is going to be this year. I'm trying not to overreact to week 1's loss but am a little concerned about the Colts. Maybe if they're playing from behind more than usual, Manning will have to go to the air even more (though not 40 completions for 433 every week).

2
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by devlindeboree :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 12:29pm

he makes a good point that this trade offer will likely hold its appeal (barring injury of course).

3
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by tally :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 12:35pm

Thanks for the input.

I did just fine in week 1, and WR is actually my area of need (started NYG Smith and Bowe). I was just fixated on getting Manning because he went two picks before my selection.

I also have Arian Foster on my bench as a bargaining chip that I want to sell high, so maybe I'll swing something without giving up CJ.

4
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by devlindeboree :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 12:42pm

i'd feel pretty good about my team if i had CJ AND manning...

5
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by tally :: Thu, 09/16/2010 - 2:21pm

I'd been trying to swing a trade for Manning but the owner's not biting, and I really didn't want to give up CJ if I didn't have to.

6
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by lang55 :: Fri, 09/17/2010 - 1:19pm

If WR is a greater need, I would see if I could swing Arian Foster or some other players on your team for an upgrade. Bowe will not look as terrible as he did in week 1 going forward but might not be a dependable starter either. I know it was raining, but Matt Cassel looked terrible out there. NYG Smith I expect to look better as well though will still share touches with Nicks, Manningham,etc.

It's hard not to get hung up on players you missed in the draft. There are several of those guys out there for me, too, including Moreno, MIke Wallace, Arian Foster etc. I just don't think you want to give up CJ and then see him put up insane numbers on someone else's team, which he would.

7
Re: CJ+Brady for MJD+Manning?
by tally :: Fri, 09/17/2010 - 1:39pm

Yes, I'm trying to find takers for Foster before he comes back down to earth vs. WAS. I don't think I'm going to get a top WR for him, but I need to get someone better than who I have (Smith, Bowe, Ocho).

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