Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

290
Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Marko :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:00am

St. Louis should be 2002.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Q (not verified) :: Sun, 01/24/2010 - 11:50pm

"Just amazed that Favre threw away an NFC championship game for the second time in 3 years. Can we officially remove him from any "best QB ever" discussion? The best QB ever doesn't make a game-losing INT in two NFC championship games twice in two years."

-This is wrong on so many levels. Against NYG Favre but up numbers comparable to any other opponent they played that year in the playoffs in FAR worse conditions.

-Favre forcing it in there on the throw today was actually not a bad decision. They were out of FG range and an incompletion/punt was in no way better. Minn was better off having him gamble on a completion or penalty than to just chuck it out of bounds and then punt

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Jesse :: Sun, 01/24/2010 - 11:52pm

He could have run.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by anotherpatsfan :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:07am

Trying out the BF apologist spin. Weak.

Decision was indefensible and stupid throw was poorly executed too. Throwing at a guy's back shoulder who is coming from the back side when all the back side defenders are coming that way too is a rookie mistake that gets punished in the NFL. He had everything in front of him, and he should have identified that he had time and space to run to so that his team (with their timeout) could at least have a long field goal try that would end the game or eat up the remaining clock. But no, he wanted to make a brave/stupid throw to be the hero. Pretty surprised he didn't run over the line and then throw the ball.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by strivan21 :: Tue, 02/02/2010 - 2:45pm

He should have not been put in that situation. The coaching/play calling for the last 2:30 was the real problem, it was horrible. 2:30 left and you run it and let the clock go down to the 2 minute warning, really? Then you get barely in field goal range and you run it twice in a effort to settle for a field goal, really? They gained almost 500 yards of offense then go into a shell at the end, completely mental. Childress should be taking all the heat not Farve.

Cheers,
-Dave

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by anotherpatsfan :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:17am

Without regard to whether tonight's last BF interception was a stupid throw -- it was -- who besides fawning media even suggests that Favre is the BEST QB ever? Anyone?

If Minny won tonight he wouldn't even have been the best QB in the Super Bowl.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by snik75 (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:22am

Well, the argument CAN be made, what with the records and all. One of the best x longest career --> biggest area under the curve, so to speak. Clearly Peyton is better RIGHT NOW, and there is a pretty good chance that by the end of Manning's career he will have done more than Favre. Assuming Favre isn't still playing. :-)

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by anotherpatsfan :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:41am

If it is about BF = Cal Ripken, that's not much of an argument. Manning's 12 years knock the crap out of BF's 18 by any advanced analysis they do around here (or at pfr), as that question of best ever seems to go beyond just magnitude of counting stats. If you can make that argument and want to, please do, looking at BF versus Manning and the other at least ten guys with a better claim to BEST QB ever than BF.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by packerpalooza (not verified) :: Sun, 01/24/2010 - 11:56pm

The NFC game pleased me on many levels.

I am legitimately sad that Viking fans how to find out NOW the essence of Favre.

It's cruel.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Jim B. (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:04am

They made a deal with the devil (Favre) and have to live with their decision: All the regular season stats you can eat, but in the end it must finish with an interception.

Favre giveth, and Favre taketh away.

You can't have your Favre and Lombardi Trophy too.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Jovins :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:19am

If there was a chance Tavaris Jackson would have done better, I'd agree with you. At the beginning of the season, I was a fan of sage rosenfels. Obviously, he couldn't even unseat tavaris jackson for the backup spot, so my hope was misplaced.

I knew this was coming. Every year the Vikings do just enough to get fans hopes up before breaking them. Every single year.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Sophandros :: Sun, 01/24/2010 - 11:59pm

Still wiping tears from my eyes.

Wow. I can't get in touch with some of my friends and family right now. If you're trying to call someone in the 504, it's not happening.

-------------
Sports talk radio and sports message boards are the killing fields of intellectual discourse.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Still Alive (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:45am

???

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Still Alive (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:46am

???

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by batbatt :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:17am

you know, I thought I was going to get a lot of enjoyment out of the Vikings QB post game presser, but he looks broken down and old. Kind of sad, really.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by jmaron :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:22am

As always people want to look for one reason why a team lost. Yes Favre made a terrible play there but the twelve man in the huddle penalty was a killer. 6 frigin fumbles - 2 inside NO's 10 yard line, one inside Minnesota's 10. Peterson 3 fumbles.

It took a team to lose that game.

As for that last drive in OT - it took some pretty ticky tack PI calls to give NO a drive.

NO's offence after the 2nd drive TD drive:

3 plays 8 yards
3 plays 4 yards
4 plays 37 yards (TD)
3 plays 1 yard
3 plays 2 yards
3 plays 7 yards
3 plays 8 yards (TD)

Minnesota's defence played a brilliant game. They were inches from stopping NO from the 8 after the Harvin fumble. I think it's a shame that the referees needed to call such ticky tack PI's that essentially decided a game.

I thought NO came out with a plan to hit Favre, and they did a good job, but McCray made two ridiculous cheap shots - one called and one inexplicably missed when he went low right at Favre's knees.

This will sound like sour grapes - but I don't think NO was a deserving winner.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by snik75 (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:29am

I didn't see the Saints much this year so I don't know - were they always hitting the quarterback with such enthusiasm? I agree that the back-of-the-legs hit should have been called, but the "drive to the ground" was a little questionable, and I don't think the refs like to call the same penalty too many times in a row unless it is obvious.

I wonder, if you really want to "protect" players, if there should be an official watching replays and handing out penalties (or fines, ejections, suspensions, what have you) for truly dirty hits that are not seen by the officials. Because if you miss a holding call, you just missed it, but if you miss a helmet-helmet hit, or a bad facemask, people can really get hurt, and the league should try to stop that sort of play. Not sure, but I wonder what others think.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Arkaein :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:33am

I would hardly call it a brilliant game by Minny's D. Only one sack, no turnovers forced (though they did force one Brees fumble, I won't give them credit for the botched center exchange), and although their numbers against the run ended up pretty good, for a while it seemed like NO was getting pretty good production, though without breaking any huge gains.

I don't think their pass D was great either. Brees had a lower than typical completion percentage, but their were some uncharacteristic off target passes. Maybe he was feeling the pressure, but I'm not sure how much credit to give the Vikings when Brees overthrew a few open receivers, or when Bush bobbles and drops a simple swing pass without being hit.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:42am

When you hold the league's leading scoring offense to well less than 300 yards in regulation, and 21 points in regulation when it didn't get the ball inside your 10, in their home stadium, you've played a very good game.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 2:24am

They also forced a fumble on the last fourth and inches, and the referees didn't see it, and thus missed the spot. I can see why the guy in the booth thought it was too much of a scrum for him to spot it better, but it was pure luck that the ball stayed with Thomas.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Q (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:36am

"Decision was indefensible and stupid throw was poorly executed too. Throwing at a guy's back shoulder who is coming from the back side when all the back side defenders are coming that way too is a rookie mistake that gets punished in the NFL. He had everything in front of him, and he should have identified that he had time and space to run to so that his team (with their timeout) could at least have a long field goal try that would end the game or eat up the remaining clock. But no, he wanted to make a brave/stupid throw to be the hero. Pretty surprised he didn't run over the line and then throw the ball"

Unlikely that a relatively slow QB could have run for 6+ yards, especially considering how many hits he had taken during the game and the fact that he was somewhat injured on the low hit. A throw in to the middle of the field gives his team a better chance to win than him running for 2 yards or launching an incompletion out of bounds

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Dave :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:43am

Give it a rest.

A 20% shot at a FG is still a better chance to win than throwing that pass.

He shouldn't have been in that situation. But he shouldn't have made that throw.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by johnny walker (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 12:58am

Favre said himself in the postgame press conference that he should've run. This just isn't complicated at all.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by jmaron :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:57am

what he actually should have done is simply flip the ball to Berrian who was wide open about 8 yards downfield on the sideline.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by anotherpatsfan :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:06am

Youtube below. Rice actually came from strong side running towards backside coverage (probably supposed to sit in middle, as he was not expecting throw where it went) converging on him. Throw still silly and poorly executed.

Pley started on 38 (55 yard FG). He throws from 41 moving to right and towards LOS. One guy coming down the line 5 yards away, guy in coverage in front of him at about 29 backing up. Defenders being fast, they will converge on him, but he gets to 36-35-34 almost certainly. Longwell is career 22-36 from 50-plus. 52 yarder this year, 2 54s and a 53 last year.

BF had better season this year than I thought possible, but that last throw was pure BF dumb...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6PQi_wd4ol4

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Q (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:46am

What lost the game for the Vikings (other than the fumbles) was Childress/OC running the ball and winding down the clock after they were within a 50 yard FG and still had 40+ seconds left. Then the subsequent penalty changed a difficult fg into an unlikely fg which likely caused Favre to feel like they needed many more yards. If Minn's coaches don't shut down their offense after they reach the 35 they win

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by andrew :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 1:52am

I can't blame Favre for this. When the tide turned against and it was down 21-14, and he was battered to a pulp and limping around, he brought them back. No chance that happened with T-Jack or Rosenfels.

I can lament the Peterson fumbles, the one right before halftime (and I know it was charged to Favre) was the worst, heck anything... even if they only got FGs on the fumbled inside the 10, those were still worth 13 points in a game that went to overtime.

Longwell would make that kick if given a chance.

I kept expecting the Vikings defense to get torched and all game long they kept coming up big. I can't ask any more of them than that.

I do fautl the officiating crew some. A saw a link on another website that noted (beforfe the game) that games his crew calls the home team had won 9 in a row.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 2:07am

Yeah, it was a dumb throw. The Vikings should have been running out the clock by then. In case anyone hasn't noticed, the guy's track record in mounting comebacks is much better than most. For people to harp endlessly about this, as if it is representative of his career performance in close games, which will no doubt happen, will be as dumb as various talking meatheads yammering on and on and on about how the guy is having so much fun out there.

The Saints deserved to win because they kept slapping at the ball, and the Vikings kept dropping it. That was the game. Having said that, if the Saints lose 50% of their fumbles, or even 33%, Favre's interception likely doesn't come into play. I haven't looked, but I think the Saints recovered at least three of their own fumbles themselves.

The game ended with two of my least favorite phenomena; an overtime system that I dislike, and a phantom PI call. I'd say ticky tack, if it were not for the fact that I have yet to see where Leber made contact, and the fact that the receiver could not have caught the pass. Toss in the fact that on the last fourth and inches, the ball was jarred loose, and the ball was spotted with forward progress as if the ball carrier had maintained possession throughout.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by anotherpatsfan :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 2:48am

It was one dumb pass, and should not be argued as career defining (although some will certainly argue it as an exemplar of his fabled reckless play), nor did that throw alone lose the game. Some here said the throw was a good decision, which is silly.

The ball being jarred "loose" -- it looked like out of the one hand, along or close to his body into the other -- was interesting and raises questions in my mind. How do you actually spot that? His farthest arguable foward progress was when the ball was in his control by his chest when the Viking hat hit the ball and he (and the ball) started to go backwards. Does he get that FP, or does he get FP to where he grabbed it up (pretty amazingly) in the groin area -- twelve-eighteen inches further back? Is it somehow analogous to the juggle rule on reception forward progress (one of those happened tonight)? Does the manner in which it went from one hand to the other matter or does it matter if tackler's shoulder started him backwards before his hat hit ball?

It certainly didn't seem that movement of the ball out of one hand into the other was taken into account.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Will Allen (not verified) :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 3:13am

I believe where regained possession is where the ball should have been spotted.

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Re: Conference Championship Discussion Thread
by Marko :: Mon, 01/25/2010 - 2:40am

I blame the Vikings' loss on Prince's pathetic theme song.

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