Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 Nov 2009

couple quick hits

TE (since Daniels is gone)
D Keller @NE
B Watson NYJ

D/ST
Saints @TB
Packers SF

WR (I'm just a little worried about White and ATL facing the Giants after the BYE)
R White @NYG
K Walter TEN

Posted by: hokieneer on 18 Nov 2009

8 replies , Last at 21 Nov 2009, 8:58pm by Snowglare

1
Re: couple quick hits
by tomdrees :: Wed, 11/18/2009 - 6:53pm

I like Watson more as a safety valve for ridiculous Jets blitzes and Revis's cover skills. Keller is the best Jets pass catcher, and Belichick knows it. Mitigating factor: Sanchez is a rookie QB on the road and likely won't be trying anything too fancy. I have a strong feeling this game is going to be a "we are angry as hell about all the stuff the media is saying about our coach being dumb" Patriots blowout.

I'd take the Packers defense at home against Alex Smith over a Saints D that was fairly inert against the Rams last week.

You're right to worry about Roddy White, but not necessarily Kevin Walter-level worried, even if he is playing the Titans (who have actually looked good the last few weeks). I'd say the chance that the Falcons will be playing from behind is an advantage for Mr. White.

3
Pats Smash!
by Snowglare :: Fri, 11/20/2009 - 2:25am

Yeah, I fear the Pats after a loss. After the Jets beat them in Week 2, they dismantled the Falcons, holding Matt Ryan to 199 yards and his only 0 TD game of the year. They focused on White (4-24) and Gonzo (1-16), handing both their worst games of the year and forcing Jenkins (5-78) to beat them, knowing he's not a serious threat. They can do much the same with Cotchery, Keller, and Edwards, respectively. Let them throw to the guy who drops half of everything.

As if that weren't bad enough, they followed their second loss with the Titans game.

The Packers are two weeks removed from losing to Tampa Bay, and I don't think Smith's that bad. If they have to, the Niners can run most/all of the game. Freeman will complete about half his passes, and the Bucs won't get to run when they're down 21.

Definitely stick with White. Walter's on the rise, but he's not an elite WR, and the Giants have poor pass coverage.

2
Re: couple quick hits
by hokieneer :: Thu, 11/19/2009 - 11:00am

I like Watson more per the matchup, but like you said Keller is the best pass-catcher the JEts have, Watson is the Pats 3rd.

Saints have been so banged up, might just go with the Pack.

I never thought about that angle with White, that's a good point. Seeing how Walter is the best WR I have on the bench (because of Bowe's suspension), and I'd be picking up D Henderson or T Holt; I'm going to stick with White and hope he scores a bunch of garbage points.

I'm 8-2 this year, playing the other 8-2 team in my league (he's also in my division and beat me once this year already). Big week. Basically the winner of this game would then have a magic number of 1 to be the top seed in the playoffs. Loser will likely be the 3rd seed.

4
Re: couple quick hits
by JuridianSantaal... :: Fri, 11/20/2009 - 6:17pm

The Saints biggest weakness is run D, and the Bucs are not a great offense. The Saints close games in this latest stretch have been against run-first teams who have formidable or better run games. The Bucs don't, and their rookie QB will make mistakes, especially considering he has no receivers that require any sort of special attention.

The Packers are going against a mistake-prone offense, but the Saints D has been getting a lot of trash TDs. I don't know if its sustainable, but I think they get the nod just on that.

Also, I expect Rodgers to have a few turnovers that might give the Niners points, while I don't expect that from Brees.

5
Re: couple quick hits
by dutchtreat :: Fri, 11/20/2009 - 9:17pm

Would you take Smith or White in this head-to-head matchup? I would typically stick with White, but NYG has had a week off and White is banged up? Thoughts?

6
White
by Snowglare :: Sat, 11/21/2009 - 1:23pm

Smith's not a bad choice, but I'd go with White. He's been questionable for weeks and was limited in practice all last week before catching 7 passes against the Panthers.

7
Re: couple quick hits
by hokieneer :: Sat, 11/21/2009 - 8:24pm

Just for your information, Smith (NYG) is my other WR I"m starting this week. I'm going to start him and White.

Now I'm debating whether to start J Lewis @DET or K Moreno vs SD as opposed to starting Addai @BAL. Addai has been putting up good points this year, but he hasn't actually looked impressive. Plus Brown is back and he's playing the Ravens.

8
Stay out of Cleveland
by Snowglare :: Sat, 11/21/2009 - 8:58pm

Maybe Moreno, but definitely not Lewis. I don't think Brown's more of a threat than Buckhalter, and Addai's been something of a TD machine. He's also far more active in the passing game than Moreno, which lessens the impact of a good run D. The Ravens might contain him, but he won't need to play that well to have a good fantasy game.

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