Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Sep 2011

Did I punt this draft?

I've always done well in this league and been happy with my drafts until this year. We start 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1D, 1K. We are required to have 2 QB's, 4 RB's, 4WR's, 2 TE's, 2 D's, and 2 K's, plus one extra slot that we can't pick until the last round. 12 teams, .5 ppr.

With this setup, and picking 10th after all the top RBs are gone, I knew going in I wanted a stud QB and a stud TE. I've waited on one or the other or both in years past, and it's hurt me. The waiver pickings are slim, and the chances of an undrafted QB or TE becoming worthy of starting are much slimmer than that of the RBs and WRs.

1. Roddy White
2. Phillip Rivers (Yes, it's early, but last year 7 QBs were gone by the end of round 3. Of course this time it didn't happen, and I could've gotten Manning or Romo in the 3rd and had MJD, McFadden, Forte, Hillis, Jackson here instead. I particularly avoided MJD because I try not to get the same injury risk guy on both of my important leagues. That may be wrong, I don't know.)
3. Felix Jones
4. Antonio Gates
5. Jahvid Best
6. Beanie Wells (I do like Wells this year, but I should've taken a WR. I saw 8 that I would've been happy with as a #2, and they were all gone by the next round)
7. A.J. Green
8. Jonathan Stewart
9. Bears D
10. Pierre Garcon
11. Colt McCoy
12. Robert Meachem
13. Garrett Hartley
14. Aaron Hernandez
15. Seattle D
16. Ryan Longwell
17. Andre Roberts

I'm banking on a lot of upside at RB and WR, and I'm going to need to be really aggressive on the waiver wire and take some chances (it's a blind-bidding system with a limited budget).

I may have made a couple bad judgment calls on what others would do in rounds 2 and 6, but what I want to ask people is - do you think this the right strategy for a league with this kind of roster setup?

Posted by: DrunkenSuperman on 02 Sep 2011

4 replies , Last at 05 Sep 2011, 3:32am by Zheng

1
Re: Did I punt this draft?
by TD30toHOF :: Sat, 09/03/2011 - 11:15am

I don't think so- my team looks kind of like yours. 12-team league with deep benches and some very research-oriented players. I also have White, Felix JOnes and Gates, but i have Rogers instead of Rivers (wash?). Bottom line: guaranteed production from 3 of 4 slots, and i also think Felix will have a breakout year with more opportunity.

WR is tough, but I think Garcon will be fine once Manning is back. Collie's already hurt. I also drafted AJ Green late, maybe that works out. The thing about drafting Gates is, he basically replaces RB2 or WR2 in production, so you have to figure one of the other positions is like a TE slot with more upside.

But Seattle D?

2
Re: Did I punt this draft?
by DrunkenSuperman :: Sat, 09/03/2011 - 3:54pm

I suppose I feel less confident in our shared players. Good point about Gates, but if he's just making up for lesser WR2, then there's no advantage to having him over, say, Vernon Davis and a better WR2.

Seattle D was a KUBIAK pick, the best left on the board at the time. I figure the NFC West teams are all inflated because they get to play each other. And they get the Bengals at home during Chicago's bye week.

With such similar teams, I must wish you lots of luck.

3
Re: Did I punt this draft?
by Sahib (not verified) :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 2:39am

I would have gotten the RB in the 2nd round and opted for the QB later. I prefer to solidify the RB/WR spots and shoot for the QBs raanked 7-12. (ie Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Stafford or Bradford.) Its all about what suits your risk tolerance. But would also I would say dont fixate on whether you had the right strategy right now. Its too early to tell how predictions flesh out. The season hasnt started. Reflect after you've had some time to see which players match your expectations, and which one didnt. But, I think you have 3 absolute Studs at QB, WR & TE with 3 potential breakout RBs. I'm not too high on AJ Green for this year. Rookie WR w/Rookie QB facing Balt & Pitt for 25% of the season. And I'm not sold on Garcon with Manning's injury situation. There are always WRs that pop up and take advantage of an injury situation. Maybe Nate Burleson, Bernard Berrian, Emmanuel Sanders, or one of the Rams WRs emerge. Keep a list of guys that you are tracking and a list of the guys who are first to get waived OFF of your team. Good Luck.

4
Re: Did I punt this draft?
by Zheng :: Mon, 09/05/2011 - 3:32am

I think you did all right given where you were drafting. I might have said that you should have waited on your QB, but to me Rivers is the closest thing to a surefire stud QB this season. Vick and Romo are big injury risks, Brees and Brady could become game managers, and look what's happening with Manning.

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