Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

09 Jul 2009

Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?

Because I do.
I know people have had varying success with KUBIAK, but I had never played FF until two years ago, and between KUBIAK, my own thoughts, some timely waiver pickups, and reading FO in general I was league champ two years ago, and runner up last year (although I did actually win the most money).

None of them know anything about FO, and I am happy to keep them blissfully unaware as I think it gives me a distinct advantage. Is anyone else in the same boat?

Posted by: Flounder on 09 Jul 2009

7 replies , Last at 13 Aug 2009, 3:47am by socctty

1
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by Marcumzilla :: Thu, 07/09/2009 - 11:04am

Yes and no. I'll mention reading some things there, but I'm very quiet about where I get any projections/cheat sheets/etc from. I don't even want posted publicly some of the other research I do specific to one league (auction).

Kubiak has helped overall, especially in avoiding a few key players (Shaun Alexander among the most obvious). I've been paying attention to a couple places that track the success of projections, looking into things such as sites doing better/worse on specific positions. There's not enough data, but if site X is good at QB projections, and FO is good at RB, that make the data even more useful.

2
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by tuluse :: Thu, 07/09/2009 - 1:02pm

No, I don't care that much about fantasy football. We just play for bragging rights. I try to get as many people as possible to read FO.

3
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by drobviousso :: Thu, 07/09/2009 - 2:48pm

No and no. None of my friends really care about football analysis beyond "HE'S A COMPETITOR!" except one friend, who found FO on his own, but I don't play FF with him.

4
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by k_sandy@yahoo.com :: Thu, 07/09/2009 - 6:27pm

YES!!! i never share information about FO to any of the other teams in my league. It's a cutthroat league. plus i've won the past 3/5 years using the kubiak projections so my little secret has paid dividends. Most of these guys have been in this league since it's inception and i have been told on numerious occassions "we never should have let you in the league, ass****" Winning is the greatest!!!

5
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by Flounder :: Thu, 07/09/2009 - 8:21pm

Yeah, I've gotten that same comment :)

6
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by Mr. Housebroken :: Sun, 07/12/2009 - 11:05pm

I like having one up on the competition. That's why I don't tell. The more FO's authors write in more and more mainstream media the more I wish they kept things a bit more quiet, not because I don't want them to make money, because I do, I just want the edge. However, I think there are some other sites that also are that way that I don't know about that give people a competitive edge. Regardless, there is one guy who reads FO content that is free and does not know their projections. He is not really familiar with DVOA and DYAR unless I remind him. BUt he kind of gets the drift that this place is pretty good. He is pretty eclectic in his reading. He happened to play me for the first time last year in FF. We met at the championship and I won. Thanks to FO and KUBIAK and their books. Like I said, I wish it could be kept a secret forever, but then again, I know people got to put food on the table.

I also think that while we begin to understand the game in better and better probabilities the more we may begin to understand when improbable events begin to occur. I am interested in The Drunkard's Walk." AZ did make an unbelievable playoff run and Superbowl comeback last year. It might not have been probable but it sure as hell was entertaining! We might be able to give probable predictions but we still just can't predict with certitude what will happen in the future. Any Tom Brady injury can change a lot of things. You don't know what will happen exactly until it happens. Sure I can guess what the present is under the Christmas tree but you just never know. That is why I have dominated a keeper league for two years but have blown it in the semi-finals twice. Freakin' Pierre Thomas and others having a career day for my opponents team. Sheesh.

7
Re: Do you hide FO from people you play fantasy football with?
by socctty :: Thu, 08/13/2009 - 3:47am

I keep it from people in my league, but I haven't had as much success as it seems you guys have. I got KUBIAK last year and while I think I was much better prepared for the draft than I normally am (which is to say a lot), it was my worst year ever.

I was the draft-day champion; I think I had more fantasy points over baseline than the next two closest competitors combined. And this was despite the fact that I drafted in last place (side note: I was originally scheduled to draft 1st overall, but the commissioner waited until draft day to set the order, which by then ESPN had LOCKED)

However, I bought KUBIAK again because I think it's worth it. I used to make up my own ADP spreadsheets based on magazines I bought off the shelf and stole from my roommate - I actually thought I had invented the idea, until I came across it on the internet sometime later (I kept using mine though, since arguably it was more relevant since my roommate was largely influenced by them). So, it's cheaper than two fantasy magazines and it's already got an ADP list in it (which is nice, since I don't have my roommate's fantasy mags to steal anymore)

Another thing I'd note is that FO has helped me realize how truly unpredictable this game is. Which has kind of made me not as zealous about fantasy football as I used to be. One would ask why I would bother with KUBIAK if it's truly unpredictable, but I'd counter that they give it the very best try out there. :-D

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