Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Aug 2012

Does KUBIAK adjust for replacement starters for high risk players?

Hey all,

Longtime KUBIAK user here, first time poster.

I've been thinking about high risk players and wondering if they're being undervalued on KUBIAK because of one simple fact: when a player is injured, or otherwise not starting, you start someone else in his place.

For example, Michael Vick has played 12-13 games over each of the last three seasons, so it makes sense that his risk is red. However, for those 3-4 games where you don't have him, it's not like your team gets 0 at QB during those weeks. Worst case, you would pick up a QB off the waiver wire. Best case, you drafted a decent backup QB. Either way, you'll get some fantasy points during those non-Vick weeks.

What I'm getting at here is maybe Vick for 12 weeks + replacement QB for 4 weeks is better than say, Matt Ryan (Green risk, assumed to play all 16 games) for all 16 weeks.

Any thoughts? Or is this already baked into KUBIAK?

Thanks!

Posted by: jrichuso on 19 Aug 2012

1 reply , Last at 19 Aug 2012, 10:22pm by Zac

1
Re: Does KUBIAK adjust for replacement starters
by Zac :: Sun, 08/19/2012 - 10:22pm

I think the risk adjustment actually does take this into account. Yellow is only a 5% decrease, and Red is only a 10% decrease. If you really can expect Vick to miss 4 games, then you'd lower his stats by 25%. So that 10% dropoff might actually be a good representation of what you can expect to lose by having to start a backup QB for 4 games.

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