23 Aug 2009
At the start of a draft, a player's marginal value is defined as the difference between his projected value and that of the lowest-rated starter at that position. Does this value change during a draft? For example, consider a 10-player league in which each team drafts only 1 quarterback. The top 10 QB projections look like this:
1. Player A: 322 points
2. Player B: 320 points
3. Player C: 312 points
4. Player D: 296 points
5. Player E: 274 points
6. Player F: 273 points
7. Player G: 264 points
8. Player H: 258 points
9. Player I: 253 points
10. Player J: 252 points
The marginal value of Player A, at the start of the draft, is 70 points (the difference between his projection and the projection of the 10th-best quarterback). You have the second pick in the draft, and the fantasy owner with the first pick takes the 11th-rated quarterback, Player K:
11. Player K: 247 points
When you go on the clock, what is the marginal value of Player A?
A. 70 points (the difference between Player A and the #10 QB)
B. 69 points (the difference between Player A and the #9 QB, who is the lowest-rated starter you can select now that someone else took the #11 QB)
C. 75 points (the difference between Player A and the #11 QB, who is now the lowest-rated starter who will be starting in the league this season)
I can't see a clear answer, so I'm hoping someone can tell me. As I see it, answer A has a certain logic, because the owner who drafted QB #11 can take QB #10 as a free agent after the draft. Answer B also makes some sense, although perhaps less than the other two (to me, anyway). And answer C also makes sense, because it fits the original definition of "marginal value."
Opinions? Preference will be given to those backed up by copious amounts of math.
3 replies , Last at 25 Aug 2009, 4:48pm by tally