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26 Aug 2010
DOVA Dallas
Does anyone really trust the overall projections on most of the 'Boys? The austin proj line is shocking...63/970/7. Guy started 12 games last year and killed those #'s. Big fast physical and a great route runner. I know an expected regression is likely but to that extent?? ESPN (for what it's worth) has a 88/1300/9 line....how can FOA be so different?
23 replies , Last at 13 Oct 2010, 10:32am by bird jam
Re: DOVA Dallas
Important to remember that this is quantitatively driven - if you disagree with the stats, use your own instead. But keep in mind that the work done to create these stats include an analysis for every single play in the NFL last season, which is significantly more scientific than your "instincts". You certainly may be right on Miles Austin, but I think it is a healthy understanding to assume that while your "instincts" are right about 50% of the time, the DVOA model is probably closer to 70%, so disregard at your own risk.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Thanks for the response!...and while i do agree with you in this case i'm really shocked. Is there anyone in America that takes Hines Ward over Austin? no chance...so no one can really buy into these specific outputs
Re: DOVA Dallas
I don't know about that - I have underestimated Hines Ward every single year and he has always proven me wrong. I personally can't stand him (and am starting to have age concerns about him,) but the guy has been a pretty damned good receiver over the course of his career. Miles Austin has one good year so far.
I don't think the difference is as clear cut as you make it sound.
Re: DOVA Dallas
I completely agree with Ward because i've felt the same about him in the past. But if you want to make a case for regressions he should be the poster child - old, leftwich (who is awful)for 4-6 games, run oriented team. Anyone who knows Dallas well can tell you Miles Austin is not a 1 hit wonder - he is a complete receiver with all the tools in a very good offense. I think the 'demise' of the Cowboys OL is very overrated which must be the root cause of the dallas downtrends.
Re: DOVA Dallas
DVOA also kind of traditionally underprojects Dallas. It usually sees a team that's overperforming year in and year out, but if you're overperforming consistantly, one could argue that that's just performing.
Re: DOVA Dallas
A lot of thoughts here...
Miles Austin's career is basically 12 games so far. There's no way you can say he's a prototype #1 WR. I don't care if you're his roommate and know his life story, he simply hasn't proven it yet. History is littered with receivers who were good for one year because defenses were caught by surprise, underestimated them, etc. This year defensive coordinators know they have to stop Miles Austin.
To answer your second post, no one should take Ward ahead of Austin because you don't have to. Don't just draft in order of KUBIAK. Use the ADP columns and only draft guys when you have to.
Finally, KUBIAK is just a guide. It's a computer's interpretation of the NFL. If you feel really strongly about Austin, then go ahead and take him. No one is stopping you. The computer just doesn't agree with you based on statistical analysis. Many of us think it's more useful than one person's (biased) understanding of the league, but it's not 100% accurate.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Sure, no one would choose Ward over Austin straight up. That's not what KUBIAK is recommending either. KUBIAK believes that Hines Ward (who goes in the 5th round) will do better than Miles Austin (who goes in the last 2nd/early 3rd). That doesn't mean you take Ward in the second round. The point is that KUBIAK says you can get Ward in the 5th round and he should greatly overperform his draft position.
Re: DOVA Dallas
And even though Ward is projected better than Austin, there's no way I'm taking Ward before someone takes Austin, because most likely, I don't need to. I'll just wait until maybe a round before Ward's ADP and nab him then. By that round, I'm 99% sure Austin will have already been taken, but not by me.
Re: DOVA Dallas
I understand the concept of ADP thanks. My point was there is no metric analysis that can generate 63 catches for austin this year. But all your points on KUBIAK i thank you for. I'm gonna save this thread for week 17. For what it's worth (and i drafted austin in 4 leagues last year (13th rd in wcoff) here's my non metric line: 84 1255 11.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Between this and the Romo thread it's clear you're a Cowboys fan. Nobody is saying Austin is terrible. For the price, current ADP is 13th!?!, 12 games does not indicate that he can produce consistently, which is what I want in my first two rounds.
Could he do better than his projection? Probably. Will he? Who knows. Therein lies the problem. Your projection makes him #1 over AJ by 1 point in my league. Sorry, I don't buy it. Good luck to your Cowboys and their O-line.
Re: DOVA Dallas
"My point was there is no metric analysis that can generate 63 catches for austin this year."
OK at this point I'm just going to assume you're trolling, because obviously THIS statistical analysis produced that line. You just don't like it, because the model doesn't like your favorite team. Please don't disrespect the hard work that the FO team has put into developing KUBIAK by dismissing it so casually. It is more scientifically advanced than any other model available to the public.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Yes i'm a boys fan...but i would never let that cloud my judgement in any way fantasy wise. No disrespect to the model at all. 1st year i've used it - and the Austin/romo cases were just a couple that jumped out at me.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Anyone know how i can download last years projections?
Re: DOVA Dallas
I think I'm pretty honest about the fact that:
a) We have a track record of our projections being incorrect about Dallas.
b) I have no idea why this is, despite spending hours this offseason trying to figure out the common thread between the bad Dallas projections.
c) It isn't because we don't like the city of Dallas or Cowboys fans or Jerry Jones, although it is true that some FO writers really don't like Jerry Jones.
d) I agree that subjectively, our 2010 Dallas predictions are too low.
e) However, the conventional wisdom about Dallas also seems too positive and ignores some strong indicators that the team will not be as good this year as it was a year ago, particularly the age of the offensive line and the low rate of injury in 2009. The most likely result for the 2010 Cowboys is somewhere between our statistical projections and the extremely positive conventional wisdom. 9-7, maybe 10-6.
f) There are only so many plays to go around. They can't give Felix Jones more carries and give Marion Barber the same number of carries and get some passes for Dez Bryant and have another big year from Miles Austin and see no decline from Jason Witten and fix whatever was wrong with Roy Williams last year. It simply is not possible.
If you want to tweak up the Dallas players in KUBIAK, I'm not going to tell you it's a bad idea. You are supposed to tweak the spreadsheet to your own liking. It's a tool, not a demand.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Thank you Aaron, I can't really argue with any of this and I appreciate the honesty and explanation.
Re: DOVA Dallas
The worst part is that adding a binary variable that just tells the projection system "improve the offensive projection if this team is Dallas" doesn't improve anything. We added a variable like that a couple years ago for the Colts, and it made Colts projections on offense a lot more accurate. But the reasons for the projections being wrong about Dallas seem to be different every year, and a Dallas binary variable ends up with a super-high p-value. It's frustrating. Nobody is perfect, but in my line of work, you like to be wrong in random ways rather than a pattern of inaccuracy.
Re: DOVA Dallas
On the other hand, the Cowboys will undershoot their 2010 projection by enough to make up for all of the other years of overshooting it if they play in the regular season like they are playing tonight against the Texans. Simply embarrassing.
Just curious, is there any facet of preseason that is reliably predictive of the regular season? If so, I might just give up on this season right now. lol
Re: DOVA Dallas
Aaron thanks - I really like the tool (1st time user) and was not trying to discredit it in any way. I was just trying to "understand" the logic behind what I thought was a major descrepancy between FO and basically the rest of the fantasy world. Thanks for the detailed explanation.
Re: DOVA Dallas
I think the best thing about KUBIAK is that it is often very different from the consensus of fantasy "experts." But it's not different for the sake of being different. Many pundits will make bold predictions just to draw attention to themselves, because parroting the same stuff is not compelling. But KUBIAK approaches the projection from a scientific perspective. It's not biased (Mysterious Dallas issues aside).
If it just spit out the ESPN Top 200 in a slightly different order...What's the point? That would be like running an experiment to prove the sky is blue. Great, we already knew that.
The trick is that you have to combine KUBIAK with the conventional wisdom to get the most out of it. Otherwise you're just blindly following a different single source of information.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Look at the rushing stats in tonights box score against the formidable Texans D...horrendous Dallas O-line is the achilles heel to the overhyped 2010 Cowboys offensive juggernaut
Re: DOVA Dallas
Beware of fantasy bubbles. I think you are much better off going with a consistent multi-year vet than someone who had a breakout season. Not enough data points. Not worth the risk, especially when everyone else is going to bid him up.
Also, even if Austin has a better season, that does not mean he was the right choice ex ante.
Though, in the case of Ward, I would be cautious trusting too much in statistical analysis, which at best can give you a slight edge, it can't make you God.
Re: DOVA Dallas
Looks like the Austin and Romo projections are gonna miss by a bit :-)
Re: DOVA Dallas
Do you also celebrate Cowboys victories after the first quarter ends?
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