Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

02 Aug 2009

Draft Analysis

I did a fantasy draft yesterday (I know early, but we have people from different states and this was the only time we could get everyone together) and I was wondering how you think my team came out. I figured this type of thing will pop on this forum up a lot more frequently as we get toward the season.

I did a brief analysis of every round, feel free to ignore if you don't want to read too much. Sorry in advance for the length of the post.

First year of a 12 person keeper league. Keep 4. 1 QB, 2 RB, 1 RB/WR, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 D, 1 K. 4 points for passing TD and 1 point for 25 individual return yards. All other scoring standard. No PPR. Note, I never draft kickers because I like to see if one of my other players gets hurt/sucks before I waste a roster spot.

QB Tom Brady
RB Pierre Thomas
WR Vincent Jackson
WR Anthony Gonzalez
Flex Donnie Avery
TE Greg Olsen
D Chicago
K None

B Matt Hasselbeck
B Rashard Mendenhall
B Jamaal Charles
B Ladell Betts
B Danny Ware
B Domenick Hixon
B Justin Gage
B Nate Burleson

Round 1: MJD was a gimme at pick 3

Round 2: I had hoped to go 3 RBs in the first 3 rounds (MJD, Marion Barber, Kevin Smith or something like that) but there was a huge run of RBs in the first and early second round and, consequently, Tom Brady fell to me. This was another cinch pick for me, although a lot of the people i was drafting with didn't like it. In fact, I got two good bets out of it with friends: 1. I took Brady over Rodgers on who would have better actual stats this year (gentleman's agreement about who won) and 2. I took the under on 29.5 passing TDs from Rodgers this year.

Round 3: It was between Thomas and Colston, but I think an RB is more valuable here, and I like Thomas a lot anyway.

Round 4: Jackson was the best available WR on my board. There was no RB I thought that was worth taking.

Round 5: Still no RB worth taking. I thought about Ray Rice, but I still think he shares some carries and will get TDs vultured. Gonzalez was my best WR available.

Round 6: This was my one huge mistake. I had decided on Avery here, then Julius Jones in the 7th, but I balked at the last minute. I thought Julius would make it to me in the 8th and I love Olsen even more than KUBIAK. I took Olsen instead.

Round 7: Avery was still there, so I took him.

Round 8: I had hoped Julius (or at least Lendell White) would get to me, but neither did. I need a 3rd running back bad and Mendenhall was the only one I like here. I have a feeling I'll either be starting him or dropping him by week 6.

Round 9: I like Hixon and I'm a Giants fan. There were no RBs worth taking.

Round 10: I took Hasselbeck as insurance plus I might be to swing a trade if someone's QB is hurt or ineffective.

Round 11: Justin Gage was pretty decent next year and is still the best receiver on the Titans. I had a bunch of risky WRs and decided for a safer pick.

Round 12: Jamaal Charles. I think there's a good chance Larry Johnson gets or is not effective in Haley's offense.

Round 13: Nate Burleson. I went for a lot of WR depth.

Round 14: This was going to be Jerome Harrison and I was sure he would get to me, but alas he didn't. Betts is probably the the player I will drop to get a kicker barring an injury to Portis.

Round 15: I love Danny Ware here. I think he wins the backup job in NY because Brown is a rookie and Bradshaw can't catch or pass block. I think he winds up being Ward-light this year.

Round 16: Chicago D. I'm trusting KUBIAK here. I am largely indifferent to defenses.

Overall, I think I'm great at QB, WR, TE, and D. MJD is elite, but I need Mendenhall, Charles, or Ware to get sersious playing time or else my RBs are really thin. Thanks for reading. What do you think?

Posted by: rdy4thefiesta on 02 Aug 2009

4 replies , Last at 03 Aug 2009, 10:15am by rdy4thefiesta

Re: Draft Analysis
by Dan :: Sun, 08/02/2009 - 3:55pm

Looks good except for the lack of RB depth. I would've passed on Avery in the 7th to lock up JJ, especially with your starting lineups. There are a lot of WR options later, but RBs get very thin. Also, I wonder if you could've taken advantage of the KR points. Were any KR RBs like Sproles, Washington, Norwood, or Maroney available after the 7th? Or what about WRs like Ginn or Higgins?

What are the keeper rules?

Re: Draft Analysis
by rdy4thefiesta :: Sun, 08/02/2009 - 4:33pm

Thanks for the comment.

I took return yardage into consideration when evaluating Sproles, Washington, and Norwood, but they all went higher than I would have taken them still (Sproles in the 7th, Washington 8th, Norwood 8th). I don't think Ginn or Maroney will return much this year, but I might be mistaken. I was considering drafting Higgins but went with Ware and Chicago's D instead. He went undrafted, so I'm considering picking him up before week one. I think he has merits as a receiver as well.

So you would have taken Olsen and Julius and passed on Avery? That's not a bad idea either. Looking at my receivers now, I could do without Avery so long as I had Julius as a flex and for RB depth.

Not drafting Julius is my only real regret at this point. Thanks again for the comment.

Re: Draft Analysis
by dkibiger :: Sun, 08/02/2009 - 9:34pm

I am drafting August 15th, and I REALLY like your idea of not drafting a kicker, especially this early in the preseason. I'm in a 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF and 6 bench. It might be a really good idea to pick up a kicker after the preseason and load up on players with potential.

Very interesting idea. I'm curious, how much did you weigh KUBIAK in your drafting. Especially since you targeted Avery, Jones, White. By the way, great pick with the Bears D in the 16th round.

Re: Draft Analysis
by rdy4thefiesta :: Mon, 08/03/2009 - 10:15am

Not drafting a kicker has always been a part of my plan. This year, it was almost neccesary for me because my failure to draft a decent third running back forced me to draft several high upside RBs (and Betts) late in the hopes that one of them pans out. I thought about taking it one step further and not draft a defense either, but when Chicago was available in the 16th round I jumped. I also really like that pick, thanks dkibiger. If I were you, I'd use that last round pick on high upside guy like Harrison, or a non-rookie receiver from the Bay area.

As for KUBIAK, I took it heavily into consideration. I was never a huge Vincent Jackson fan, but KUBIAK and the great Chargers projection sold me. I drafted Julius Jones last year with the thought that he was the best RB on a good offense, but Jones' mediocrity and the hand of God messed that one up. I wouldn't have targeted him again if not for KUBIAK. On the other hand, I really don't love White despite his high projection and apparant weight loss. I think he'll get less work because the Titans will be behind more often and Chris Johnson is the far superior player. I just needed a RB3 bad in the 8th round and he was a safer pick than Mendenhall.

On the other hand, I was high on Brady, MJD, Olsen, Anthony Gonzalez, and Avery whether or not KUBIAK liked them. It does make me feel better about drafting them, though.

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