Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Sep 2011

Draft is done, now which bench player to drop for a kicker?

League setup: 16 teams, 0.25 PPR, 1 pt/20 return yards. QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 W/R/T, D, K. Only 13 roster spots (plus 2 IR), which means only 4 bench players.

I passed on a kicker in the draft, figuring I'd maximize my "speculative" choices and take some time to decide who I like least. Now I am paralyzed by choice!

My roster (with draft position, not that it is relevant to the question at hand):

13. Roddy White, WR
20. Peyton Hillis, RB
38. Antonio Gates, TE
59. Ryan Mathews, RB
70. Joseph Addai, RB
91. Mike Thomas, WR
102. Eli Manning, QB
123. Josh Cribbs, WR
134. Bears D
155. Michael Crabtree, WR
166. Emmanuel Sanders, WR
187. Deji Karim, RB
198. Andre Roberts, WR

My 5 choices are Cribbs, Crabtree, Sanders, Karim and Roberts. I won't give Kubiak details, but the spread between "best" and "worst" is only ~20 points. All are projected to be over 100.

Kubiak says Karim. Of course Kubiak isn't accounting for the possible upside of an MJD injury, or the insurance value to MJD's owner.

Cribbs, Sanders and Roberts are all pretty close per Kubiak. All have potential upside - Cribbs' projections could be low if the kickoff haircut proves too conservative; Sanders and Roberts are well-touted "breakout" candidates.

That leaves Crabtree, who is just above Karim per Kubiak, underachieved last year, plays on a terrible team with Alex Smith and a new coach, and seems like an all-around head-case. However: wouldn't Crabtree's 2010 be considered a pretty good outcome for Sanders and Roberts in 2011? Why keep a possible Crabtree over the actual Crabtree? Plus, Crabtree has a good week 1 matchup against Seattle and my hope with these guys is to luck into some trade value early and SELL SELL SELL.

I lean towards dropping Crabtree. But any and all thoughts are appreciated!

Posted by: mcbrown on 07 Sep 2011

1 reply , Last at 10 Sep 2011, 6:51am by Sahib

Re: Draft is done, now which bench player to drop for a kicker?
by Sahib (not verified) :: Sat, 09/10/2011 - 6:51am

I agree, drop Crabtree. He probably wont play this week anyway. With Braylon Edwards on the roster, I can see the team leaning on Edwards. Crabtree hasnt performed as expected. And if he does well enough swap him with Roberts. I dont trust Crab or Alex Smith.

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