Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

20 Aug 2011

Drafting strategy

Now that I have my Kubiak in hand, how do you guys use it during the draft? Do you look at your Kubiak and take the best available player that is listed or do you draft according to need? For instance, if you had only one running back spot filled and the next three times you picked WRs were ranked higher than any available RB, would you take WR three straight times?

Posted by: Paperboy113 on 20 Aug 2011

2 replies , Last at 22 Aug 2011, 3:33am by Zheng

Re: Drafting strategy
by Dan :: Sat, 08/20/2011 - 8:25pm

You're trying to pick the best overall team, which means that you need to fill every spot in your lineup at some point, and that starters are especially important. If KUBIAK has a WR as the highest ranked player for six straight rounds, you're not going to draft six straight WRs. You should try to get a sense of how the draft is going to go, and when you'll get the best value at each position. When you make a pick you should be looking ahead to see how things will fit together, not just focusing on the VBD rankings for that one pick.

If the highest ranked RB in round 2 is slightly below the highest ranked WR, but the RBs over the next several rounds look like they'll all be even worse values, then you should probably take a RB there in round 2. Or, if KUBIAK says that Brandon Lloyd is the best player available in round 3, but he's typically getting drafted in round 5 or 6, then you should probably draft someone else in round 3 and wait to take Lloyd later. Or, if KUBIAK says that a QB is the best value in round 4, but you expect a different QB to be an even better value in round 7, then maybe you should go for a different position in round 4 and wait to get your QB in round 7.

Re: Drafting strategy
by Zheng :: Mon, 08/22/2011 - 3:33am

What I do is use KUBIAK to find several undervalued players in each round, and try to draft those picks a round before their ADP. It's not scientific but it's how I drafted Arian Foster in all of my leagues last season between rounds 3 and 7.

For autodraft I'll do some Excel work to take each player's ADP and modify it +- up to a round and a half based on the differential with KUBIAK.

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