Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

04 Sep 2009

Drew Brees or top WR?

After picking Steven Jackson at #10 in a 10 round league, at the top of the 2nd round I had the choice of Drew Brees or Randy Moss or Andre Johnson. I took Brees because its a 6 point TD pass league with bonus points for longer TD passes. Was that a mistake? When it got back around to me the best WRs on my board were Dwayne Bowe and Vincent Jackson. Uggh.

Posted by: max on 04 Sep 2009

14 replies , Last at 09 Sep 2009, 1:22pm by kyclef

1
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by max :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 6:55am

max

2
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by alsep73 :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 8:32am

I'm in a similar league, and Kubiak has Brady and Brees in our top 6 overall. You're gonna be thin at WR, but you'll have a huge advantage at QB. Just be on the lookout for some high upside receivers on the waiver wire.

3
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by tally :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 11:02am

I think the dropoff at QB is most significant after Rivers in that type of league. Also, after the first four WRs, there's a steady but slow decline. I think there may have been a chance that you'd still be able to pick up Rivers in round 3 had you taken Moss in round 2, and then you'd have ended up with a top 4 QB and the top WR.

5
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by Mello :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 3:42pm

I was in this exact position in my 12 team draft. Got Jackson @ 12 and decided to get Moss @ 13. My league has 4 WR slots compared to 1 QB starting slot and figured the extra production from Moss compared to the WRs that would be available @ 36 was more than the QB drop in quality. I think Brees may have already been off the board but I rated Brees and Brady almost equally. I think it ended up working out well as Rivers fell to me later.

Even with your rules variations, I think I would have picked Moss. As you found out, the pickings at WR were ugly later after everyone snagged the tops ones in rounds 2 and 3.

4
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by Zheng :: Fri, 09/04/2009 - 3:28pm

Whether to take a QB or WR in that position is a matter of your league rules. 6pts per thrown TD is a lot. If it's a 2 QB league then obviously Brees is the way to go. If you play 1 QB and 3 WR then probably WR is the way to go. If it were 1 QB, 2 WR, and 1 RB/WR, then you could probably go either way, but I'd have gone Brees, mainly because he's as certain as it gets in fantasy football. Besides, I'm better at finding WR talent than I am at choosing between the Bulgers and Rosenfelses at QB.

6
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by joshuascottrose :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 3:46am

I would argue you did the right thing, as the drop off in value from Brees to whoever would be available at that position next round (likely Rivers) is equal to the drop off in value from Johnson to, say, Jennings. The difference is that you've got a steady decline in WR values from there, whereas QB values fall off a cliff.

7
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by max :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 8:07pm

I still don't know if I did the right thing.

I should also say that after I took Brees, PManning, Brady, Rivers, and ARogers all went before the end of the 3rd round, so I wouldn't have had a shot at any of them.

If I took Moss I would have had to settle for Romo, Cutler, McNabb, Ryan or Warner. That's a huge drop off from Brees, I'd imagine.

Since there were no WR's off the board when I took Brees at the top of the 2nd, I was expecting Moss, Fitz, AJohnson, and CJohnson, to be off the board when it came back around to me at #30, but I was hoping that Jennings or Wayne would be there for me. But they were all gone including Colston, and SSmith.

8
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by max :: Sat, 09/05/2009 - 8:07pm

I still don't know if I did the right thing.

I should also say that after I took Brees, PManning, Brady, Rivers, and ARogers all went before the end of the 3rd round, so I wouldn't have had a shot at any of them.

If I took Moss I would have had to settle for Romo, Cutler, McNabb, Ryan or Warner. That's a huge drop off from Brees, I'd imagine.

Since there were no WR's off the board when I took Brees at the top of the 2nd, I was expecting Moss, Fitz, AJohnson, and CJohnson, to be off the board when it came back around to me at #30, but I was hoping that Jennings or Wayne would be there for me. But they were all gone including Colston, and SSmith.

9
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by Zheng :: Sun, 09/06/2009 - 11:36pm

Sounds to me like it boils down to whether you prefer rooting for Brees or Moss on Sundays. It's a judgment call, and fantasy football is a crapshoot anyway. I drafted Brees too, and it seems impossible that he will underperform unless he gets hit by a train or gets caught DUI with a trunkful of blow. That's the game.

10
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by tally :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 7:55pm

I think Brees was the right choice. The QBs drop by about 100 points between Brees (#1) and Rodgers (#6), where it finally kind of levels off (only ~15-20 point difference between #7 and #12 QBs), whereas the WRs show a much gentler decline of only 40 points between Moss (#1) and Colston (#6), with only about a 30 point drop for the next 20 WRs.

If you set Brees and Moss as your baselines, then:

1. Choosing Brees (-0), plus two WRs ranked later than #6 (Colston) (-40-50 each). Total value (-80 to -100).

2. Choosing Moss (-0), plus QB after Rodgers (-100) and WR after #6 (Colston) (-40-50). Total value (-140 to -150).

11
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by max :: Tue, 09/08/2009 - 5:00pm

Interesting.

My league rules yield only about a 70 pt difference between Brees and Rogers according to Kubiak. Still significant though.

max

12
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by max :: Tue, 09/08/2009 - 5:00pm

Interesting.

My league rules yield only about a 70 pt difference between Brees and Rogers according to Kubiak. Still significant though.

max

13
Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by tally :: Tue, 09/08/2009 - 11:59pm

Might be the yardage scoring or whether you penalize sacks taken. A 70 point swing is not quite as big but still a difference of about 25 points as opposed to 55 points.

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Re: Drew Brees or top WR?
by kyclef :: Wed, 09/09/2009 - 1:22pm

i probably would've taken andre johnson, but i don't think brees was a bad pick at all. bowe and jackson will both have pretty solid years. hopefully you spent some of your middle rounds shoring up the WR spot.

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