26 Oct 2009
So how does everyone use the numbers from Football Outsiders?
I know there are plenty of us using spreadsheets and formulas to try and get an edge. If anyone wants to share any ideas or ways that they use some of the great numbers given to us by Football Outsiders. If you are tired of talking about football gambling with people that that think excel is for accountants then lets come here to discuss our methods and work together.
One of the things that use when looking at a game is:
(Team A Points Scored + Team B Points Allowed) X [Team A Offensive DVOA - (Team B Defensive DVOA + Team B Special Teams DVOA)] then I subtract that result from the same formula with Team B on Offense and Team A on Defense and Special Teams. The result of this equation gives what I call the DVOA line and then compare that line to the Vegas line. I have noticed that using this method tends to give an advantage to the bigger road favorites wich did very well this week but over the long term isn't a way to make a bunch of money.
I always look at Turnover Overs, Time of Possession and something I call Corrected Points. Corrected Points is like Plus/Minus but also takes into account the point spreads. So if a team wins the game by 7 points and they were 7 point underdogs then they would have a Corrected point score of 14 for that game and their oppenent would have a score of -14. I keep a running total for Corrected Points. This gives me a running total of how a team is performing compared to Vegas' expectations.
Last season Atlanta was piling up these Corrected Point Totals and they kept being underdogs as Vegas' and bettors never seemed to give them the credit that they had earned. This season I think that Denver might be getting close this as they have been home underdogs to Dallas and New England, before going on the road to being underdogs at San Diego. This week Denver is an underdog again on the road in Baltimore. I'm not sure how the other numbers for this game come out and it is a west coast team coming east for a 1PM start, which historically haven't been very good investments.
I know that gamblers don't like to shared their secrets and I don't blame anyone that wants to keep there information and methods to themselves but I'd like this to be a place where rational discussion about NFL point spreads can take place. Most gambling forums are just guys calling there locks of the week and degenerate gamblers that are looking to bet blindly on what others post. I will try to take the reigns and be more proactive in my postings and I hope that a solid exchage of ideas leads all of us to be better and more profitable by way of both profit and knowledge.
On a side note, thanks again Football Outsiders for providing a place to talk about football with people that are looking for reasons why things happen instead of the cliche machine that passes for "expert analysis" on most pregame shows.
5 replies , Last at 09 Oct 2012, 2:59pm by thabounceisback