29 Aug 2013
This is more of a theoretical drafting question although it does apply to my draft tonight:
Is it worth "reaching" for a player who is projected to be over-the-top dominant at one position and then settling for run-of-the-mill guys at another positions or would you rather have pretty good guys at every position (with no Jerry Rice-esque standout anywhere)? Would you rather diversify your risk or shoot for the moon?
Why I'm asking specifically:
I'm in a 10-team league that plays 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE and no flex. I ran projected numbers for every player, calculated the value-over-replacement for each player and Calvin Johnson was clearly projected to have the top value in the league, largely in part to the non-standard lineup requirements of the league. I think his average draft position is around 9-10; I'm drafting 3rd.
I'm torn as to whether I should reach and draft him first or whether I should go the safe route and draft one of the top RBs. There are other facts that are pertinent to my situation but I don't want to bog everyone down in the details, as this is more of a theoretical question.
I think it boils down to a couple key factors:
1. The likelihood that CJ reaches his projections (I think if he is healthy he should be fine; however, there is injury risk here)
2. The likelihood that whichever mid-tier RB I pick outperforms his projections and has a first-tier caliber season (I’m less bullish on this, as I’m not very high on any of the RBs that would be available after the top 10)
3. The ability to nail a late round/waiver wire RB/WR that has a monster year (think Victor Cruz/Arian Foster/Ryan Grant in their big sleeper years). Is it easier to pick up this sort of player if he is a RB or a WR? (I feel like it is easier to pick up a RB given the higher rate of attrition at the position but I’m not sure)
I’m leaning toward taking the RB, as the thought of watching Chris Johnson and Darren Mcfadden as my two RBs terrifies me but I was wondering what everyone else thought. Amongst your starters, I feel like lower player variance in fantasy football is desirable to higher player variance in a league with individual head-to-head matchups, as the primary goal in my mind is simply to make the playoffs.
4 replies , Last at 24 Nov 2013, 1:45am by bingoboy