Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

18 Aug 2014

Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart

I'm trying to figure out a way to value fantasy football draft spots to help facilitate some trades. For example, should I trade my First Round pick (#6) for a Second (#17) and Third (#20)? There is the famed Jimmy Johnson draft chart and its successors for the real NFL draft, but fantasy is obvious very different. I haven't really found anything that I trust that would apply it for my fantasy draft.

Using KUBIAK, I was thinking of taking the "Points Over Baseline" as a proxy. For example, say the 6th pick is worth 93 points over baseline. I then go down to #17 (68 points) and #20 (58 points) and see that I would be netting 33 extra points as a rough approximation.

Keeping in mind that this is just an example, would this be a pretty good approximation? Any other suggestions or concerns?

Posted by: charlesfromage on 18 Aug 2014

4 replies , Last at 22 Aug 2014, 1:57am by Paydro

1
Re: Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
by bkjsun :: Tue, 08/19/2014 - 2:16pm

I've been trying to get the same thing and I've seen some charts on footballguys and kffl but nothing I really like.

So instead what I've done is look at the most likely team I could build with each set of draft picks and see what the difference would be in projected points.

2
Re: Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
by Paydro :: Tue, 08/19/2014 - 7:14pm

Seems like you've got a pretty good handle on it... I'd just use KUBIAK auction values and put them in a ranking, and you're on your way to a pick value chart. Ideally, you'd take a look at the last several years' valuations and average them, so you have a solid "expected value" for each pick.

I'd be curious how such a chart would work out, given the natural curve of fantasy value, which is much like the one in real life (where the top pick is worth much, much more than the 10th or 20th).

3
Re: Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
by charlesfromage :: Thu, 08/21/2014 - 1:32pm

I've been noodling on this idea pretty much every year and finally asked you guys this year. A lot of the draft charts I see actually use the Jimmy Johnson one to apply to fantasy. 1) It doesn't even work in the real NFL. 2) It's even more silly in fantasy.

As for auction, I thought about that, but those seem to follow different patterns.

Anyway, Paydro, last year I took the 2006-2012 predictions and just averaged the projected points from the rankings. This is what I came up with for the top 20 spots:

138
124
109
98
92
84
78
73
69
64
61
59
58
57
55
54
53
51
49
47

As you mention, there is a pretty steep drop-off. You might be willing to trade your second and third round picks for the #1 overall pick, but not for the #6 pick.

4
Re: Fantasy Football Draft Value Chart
by Paydro :: Fri, 08/22/2014 - 1:57am

Interesting. One complication in considering a 2-for-1 (or whatever) situation is the limitations on fantasy rosters. In the NFL there's always room for another draft pick, especially since you're turning over a substantial portion of your roster anyway, but in fantasy, a player you can't start isn't worth much. I guess that's only relevant if we're talking about 10th-15th rounders though.