Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Aug 2010

Feedback on my Draft

My first time using KUBIAK, but I got into the "exec" league at work so I'm a little more motivated to be competitive. I just want some feedback on my team and thought process.

Anyway its a 12 person, 1PPR league that counts return yardage on both individual and Defense. We start 1Qb, 2RB, 2WR, 1Flex, 1TE, 1K, and 1D.

1 (11): Rashard Mendenhall: Big Run on RBs (8) and QBs (3). Figured I needed to get a RB now.

2 (14): Andre Johnson: No Brainer here.

3 (35): Matt Forte: Not a big fan but very few top RBs are still available; we are in the high teens for picks spent on RB.

4 (38): Hines Ward: Felt 10-15 picks High but I'm not getting a pick for awhile and he's the top player on my board.

5 (59): Steve Smith NYG: Felt like I was getting value. KUBIAK had Sproles rated higher, but guys who rely on returns for 30% of their points just makes me nervous.

6 (62): Matt Ryan: I needed a QB and the two highest on my board were McNabb and Ryan. I felt like I could sit on McNabb, and he'd need a good backup so I went with Ryan.

7 (83): Arian Foster: McNabb got taken, so I went for some depth at RB

8 (86): Dwayne Bowe

9 (107): Zach Miller

10 (110): Kevin Kolb: I needed another QB in case Ryan Bombs. Today I like him more than Ryan, but same week 8 bye

11 (131): Tim Hightower: Top RB left, but not somebody I hope to ever need

12 (134): Miami Def: Really nervous. KUBIAK has them as #2 def which let me pick other positions. Still KUBIAK is the only one that have them top half.

13 (155) Jeff Reed

14 (158) Devin Hester

15 (179) Matt Cassel: High upside and I need another QB with a different bye

16 (182) Buffalo Def


QB and Defense have me nervous. Aside from that I'm below average at RB, but not painfully so. I never expect much out of TE, and given that I was able to get some impact RB/WR earlier I'm ok with Z Miller.

Posted by: filterxg on 29 Aug 2010

10 replies , Last at 03 Sep 2010, 10:22pm by filterxg

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by Zheng :: Mon, 08/30/2010 - 4:07am

Pretty good. I like where you got Foster and Bowe. Foster's ADP is mid-5th round nowadays. I wouldn't sweat the Ds; they're Ds. I usually just play the matchups there. Similarly you have three midrange QBs with upside, you can play matchups while seeing if one breaks out.

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by filterxg :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 8:25pm

Yeah getting Foster (and seeing him the other night) really helped me relax on Forte, who really isn't my favorite. Still with him and Bowe I should have depth at RB/WR I'm not used to having. Anyway thanks for the feedback!

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by socctty :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 11:12pm

Ahh shit this made me realize that Ryan and Kolb are on the same bye week. I have them and only them at QB!

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by socctty :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 11:14pm

1 PPR and Andre Johnson went 14th?!?!

My league has 1 PPR and I took him 5th overall with absolutely no qualms. (I adjusted KUBIAK ratings as an average of SportingNews projections and orig KUBIAK projections and it had Andre as the #3 overall player in my league). However, in my 10-team league I was the only person to take a WR in the first round (and ended up with Wayne and White also).

I think you got lucky taking Ward ahead of Smith. Ward I took in the 6th round of my draft. The Smiths were both pretty highly rated by my league, and they went fairly early. Everyone is down on Ward anyway because of Roethlisberger's suspension and Ward's age. You could have waited I think.

You and I have the same QBs but I took Kolb and Ryan in back to back rounds (7th and 8th I think?)

I'd drop that Buffalo defense of yours. You've got two AFC East defenses; both have to play the Patriots. The Jets games could be productive as low-scoring games I guess. But you don't need two DEFs I feel. If it makes you feel better about defenses, I heard Matthew Berry (ESPNs fantasy guy) on Bill Simmons' podcast and he says that in the past 6 YEARS the top drafted defense in the beginning of the season has only finished in the TOP 12 ONCE. That, combined with Football Outsiders' suggestion that defenses are highly variable year to year and you should just be playing matchups. I drafted Miami for what it's worth - 14th of a 15th round draft - but I won't hesitate to drop them when they play New England.

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by filterxg :: Wed, 09/01/2010 - 5:51pm

The way my league seems to be working is that about 1/2 the league are casual and 1/2 the league does their research (we all still talk shit).

1st Rd started like most with CJ, AP, MJD, RR, then got weird with Manning, Moss, Brees, Rodgers, Jackson, Gore, Mendenhall, Turner, and then Ryan Matthews in rd 2. So that's how it ended up with Andre in the second round (also can see how there were so few RBs at round 3).

As for Ward vs Smith, I think I got lucky either way. They are very similiar players, with lots of receptions, but not big plays. Despite the Big Ben situation I still like Ward slightly more, but either way it worked out for me.

As for the D's I never thought about returns yardage as a way to reduce the delta from best to worst. It looks like everybody in my league is intent on keeping 2 D's, at least until their bye week, so my waiver wire pickings are bottom third of the league (hence my concern).

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by Dan :: Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:03am

Your league counts return yards for the defense, not just return TDs? That's odd. The teams with the worst defenses get the most return yards, so depending how much weight they get you may want a team with a bad defense. Or just get Cleveland.

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by filterxg :: Wed, 09/01/2010 - 12:51pm

It counts yards AND TDs. Just in my mind a return TD is suffiently random that I don't even think about it for draft purposes.

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by Key19 :: Thu, 09/02/2010 - 3:46pm

S Smith 34
Foster 53
Kolb 63

Those are the ADP figures of those three players. You got them at 59, 83, and 110 respectively. That's absurd value. You also got Andre at 14, and as another poster said, he goes right around 5 almost always. As far as value is concerned, you did really well. I can only dream that I could get those kinds of guys that late in my league.

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by DrG :: Thu, 09/02/2010 - 5:22pm

I wonder if the guy who drafted Manning is using KUBIAK? If you are looking for dyanamic value, he's a guy KUBIAK puts in middle of first round. The guy who picked Moss either/or sees Schaub/AJ as an injury risk, or Moss is in his contract year. That's the screwiest pick of the bunch IMO. Early QB runs and two guys who thought Gore and Jackson were the highest rated a.k.a. 'best values' on the board.

For the 11th round, I think Hightower is a great value, especially for PPR. Not hard to imagine a lot of 3rd down dump offs the way Arizona is situated this year.

Why not wait for a kicker?

Re: Feedback on my Draft
by filterxg :: Fri, 09/03/2010 - 10:22pm

It was an offline draft, and I didn't see anybody with anything that looked excel generated. A lot of ESPN cheat sheets, and some other off the shelf free internet lists. Two guys also had their lists on their smartphones.

Gore was something of a community pick. The guy was running late, and while we didn't want to wreck his season, we also didn't want to give up a player we wanted.

The only reason I can give for the kicker is that most teams had gotten one already, there weren't any great values/needs left, and I liked the idea of having another one of my top players.

Anyway after all this I'm even happier with my draft than before. 3 good running backs and 4 good receivers. I'll play Kolb, Ryan, and maybe Cassel by committee based off the weaker opponent. D's and K's will probably be juggled through the waiver wire.

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