Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

07 Sep 2009

First overall pick in keeper draft

Thanks to my horrible 2008, I have the first pick in our 12-team keeper league. Thanks also to the same horrible season, one of my keepers is Darren McFadden, and the other is Marques Colston.

Stats are fairly normal. 2 points for five receptions, then an additional point every two catches. Starters: QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, TE, K, D/ST.

The candidates:

Tom Brady
Steve Slaton
Chris Johnson
Frank Gore

I think I have to take one of the RBs because of McFadden's uncertainty, but I'm struggling to pick which one.

Posted by: nbaird on 07 Sep 2009

4 replies , Last at 07 Sep 2009, 9:52pm by nbaird

1
Re: First overall pick in keeper draft
by tally :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 7:35pm

Hmm, slim pickings at RB for a #1 pick. I think KUBIAK likes Slaton the most, and in PPR league (what is that, about 0.4 to 0.5 per catch?), he's an even bigger favorite.

I'd kind of still go with Brady if you're willing to not take an RB first round, depending on which other QBs are available and not kept.

2
Re: First overall pick in keeper draft
by nbaird :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 7:38pm

Brady's far and a way the best QB available. Next is probably Rodgers.

How much do you think yesterday's announcement that Chris Brown will get short yardage/third-down work hurts Slaton's value?

3
Re: First overall pick in keeper draft
by tally :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 8:00pm

KUBIAK apparently doesn't think so...I think it will hurt him at least some.

The difference between Brady and Rodgers is about 100 FPs in a 6FP/TD league. The difference between Slaton and a RB 10 ranks below him is 20 FPs, 10 more ranks below that is another 20 FPs. I'd probably take Brady if you think you can get someone on the order of Pierre Thomas or Kevin Smith (10 ranks below Slaton) or even a Ryan Grant or Derrick Ward (20 ranks below Slaton).

4
Re: First overall pick in keeper draft
by nbaird :: Mon, 09/07/2009 - 9:52pm

We're a 4 pt/passing TD league.

I went with Slaton, took Bowe and Gates at the end of 2nd/start of 3rd. Have Roethlisberger at QB. Also have Julius Jones, who KUBIAK likes.

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