Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Aug 2012

Forecasted Games Played?

I know that injuries/games played are factored into the forecasts, but is there anywhere we can see this? Seems important as a guy like McFadden for 12 games plus an average handcuff for 4 games may change where you rank these guys overall if you're confident you can handcuff a guy.

Posted by: gldnboot13 on 08 Aug 2012

1 reply , Last at 08 Aug 2012, 10:48pm by Zac

Re: Forecasted Games Played?
by Zac :: Wed, 08/08/2012 - 10:48pm

I'm actually not sure if risk of injury is factored beyond the Risk Factor. Is McFadden projected for only 219 rushes because of the chance that he will get injured, or are they expecting a 2:1 committee situation with him and Mike Goodson? (This could be a chicken or egg scenario in that maybe McFadden is in a committee because the Raiders worry he'll get injured as a workhorse back). FOA 2012 implies the latter, as they imply that he is competing for the job as 3rd down back. McFadden's profile also notes that he had only 17 carries on 3rd or 4th down last year, so it does seem clear that the Raiders prefer to avoid using him on 3rd down.

Long story short, I believe all stats are 16 game projections (in the role that FO expects the player to perform when the stats were calculated).

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