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10 Jun 2009
A slant on yesterday's question: Which player(s) do you expect to see taken too early in your fantasy drafts this year?
Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 10 Jun 2009
12 replies , Last at
11 Jun 2009, 4:27am by
Michael Turner: I don't think last year's going to repeat itself.
Matt Ryan: I think the assumption is that he can be a Fantasy starter but I'm not buying it *this season*.
DeAngelo Williams: WAY too good over the final whatever number of games last year. I don't think he's worth a top 5 pick (which is where he's at on NFL.com just as one reference).
Chris Johnson: Everyone loves this guy, including myself. But I just have a bad feeling about this season for him. I foresee injuries.
Steve Breaston: I think people will draft him assuming another 1,000 yard season, and I don't think he's going to repeat that.
Santonio Holmes: As I said yesterday, I think people's lasting image will be the Super Bowl, and they'll want to grab him up early.
Brandon Marshall: No Cutler, and I've never been that impressed with him anyways.
Michael Turner: He's going 1.03 right now, when there's no way he can match last year's productivity.
DeAngelo Williams: Not going as high as Turner, but he won't repeat the TD numbers.
Larry Fitzgerald: Still probably the #1 WR, but I've seen him in the top four taken overall. Seems a bit too high to me.
Tom Brady: A very risky pick; he'll probably be healthy, but even so, I like Brees (and maybe Rivers) better.
I think I already mentioned in the other thread: Aaron Rodgers.
Whoever gets picked in the top 3 this year. All of the best RBs seem to have their issues or are too young to be trusted. It was like that last year too: you couldn't look at LT, AP or Westbrook and feel amazingly confident like you could be about LT or BW in '07.
Here's one for each position, with current ADP:
QB Matt Ryan (6.10, QB9) - being crowned prematurely, as a QB for a run-first team
RB Michael Turner (1.03, RB3) - won't get as many carries or TDs as last year
WR Terrell Owens (3.08, WR12) - declined last year, now turning 36 and catching balls from Trent Edwards
TE Tony Gonzalez (5.07, TE3) - hard to have this much confidence in him on a new team
Honorable mentions: Warner, Rivers, Westbrook, and Crabtree
Drew Brees (2.04) - Probably the #1 QB, but early second round?!
Brandon Marshall (3.10) - No Cutler, looming legal problems and still in third round?
Willie Parker (5.02) - Massive injury risk, serious carry share
If Brees is 'probably the #1 QB', then I'd say early in the second round is more of a steal than an overdraft - for most league's scoring systems, anyhow.
DeAngelo Williams, far and away the poster child for this. His 2nd-half TD numbers are once-in-a-lifetime stuff.
Also LaDainian Tomlinson (the guy getting paid Franchise Player money isn't going to the ride the pine!) and Larry Fitzgerald (if only because Kurt Warner's season is simply unrepeatable). So... Kurt Warner, too.
Actually, he probably will for the most part.
1. Matt Schaub. 15 TD and 10 INT in 12 games is not top 10 fantasy material. It's barely starting-quarterback material. Chad Pennington had 19 TD and 7 INT in 16 games, which is about equivalent TD's and fewer mistakes. And yet he's being taken ahead of Carson Palmer, Jay Cutler, etc. Insane.
2. TJ Houshmandzadeh. Going from Carson Palmer to Matt Hasselbeck, and from playing opposite Chad Johnson to playing opposite Deion Branch, and yet he's being taken in the third round? The -early- third round? He's an okay #2 WR - which means a 4th-5th round grade.
3. Michael Turner. 370 carries. Enough said.
4. Chris Johnson. Sure, he's great, but he's basically Steve Slaton playing with a better defense and more competition. And Slaton goes up to a full round later.
If DeAngelo Williams is going to be overdrafted, does that mean Jonathan Stewart is going to get underdrafted?
LT., Kurt Warner and Chris Johnson.
Paradoxally, I think Fitz will do fine. Top 5.
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