Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Sep 2009

The Futility of a Fade Route (?)

Does anybody know of any literature or research done on the statistical effectiveness of running a fade route from inside the 5 yard line? I’m not referring to a back should kind of fade-stop, just a pure fade route.

I’ve been considerably struck by the notion that it seems to be low percentage play, or at least low enough percentage that a running play might be a better use of a down, even if it doesn’t end in a touchdown. This was emphasized again to me last night when the Cowboys ran two consecutive fade routes on second and third and goal from the 1 or 2 yard line.

I’m interested to hear any thoughts.

Posted by: mattgreer008 on 29 Sep 2009

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