Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

24 Aug 2011

Game Bonus

Kubiak has Game Bonus for Passing,Rushing, and Receiving at 300-100-100.

In my league it's 350-175-150 with 4 point bonuses.

Is there a way to change the 300-100-100? Or is there something else I can do?

Thanks!

Posted by: dutchtreat on 24 Aug 2011

9 replies , Last at 29 Aug 2011, 12:37pm by elgato7664

1
Re: Game Bonus
by Zac :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 5:22pm

From 2006 to 2010, there were 143 games where a QB passed for at least 350 yards. There were 422 games where a QB passed for at least 300 yards. So about 1/3 of 300 yard games are also 350 yard games. Therefore I would set the value of a 300 yard game to 1.3 points. The idea is that if a guy gets 300 yards in 3 games, then probably 1 of those games will be a 350 yard game. And 1.3+1.3+1.3 is approximately 4 points.

Using the same logic, the rushing bonus should be 0.25, and the receiving bonus should be 0.6 .

2
Re: Game Bonus
by elgato7664 :: Wed, 08/24/2011 - 5:43pm

***Posted this before seeing Zac's response, his numbers are better than these (larger sample size).***

This methodology isn't perfect, but I think it is good enough to do the trick...

Using last year's numbers only:

35 out of 96 300 yard passing games went for 350+
35 / 96 x 4 = 1.46 pts per 300 yard game

Only 4 out 124 100 yard rushing games went for 175+... so no point in even putting a number in
(0.16 pts per 100 yard rushing game)

28 out 181 100 yard receiving games went for 150+
28 / 181 x 4 = 0.62 pts per 100 yard receiving game

3
Re: Game Bonus
by dutchtreat :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 9:48am

Thanks for looking into this, much appreciated! I convinced the league to switch the game bonus back to 300-100-100 for QB-RB-WR.

4
Re: Game Bonus
by pastramimonster :: Thu, 08/25/2011 - 7:10pm

Where are you all getting the data from to come up with those numbers?

I have a league that sets the rushing numbers bonus at 120 and 150 and the receiving at 150 and 200, so coming up with a conversion to make that work for Kubiak would be nice,

However

I'd really like to know where I can get all the game date in CSV form so I can play around with it myself!

5
Re: Game Bonus
by BigFatD (not verified) :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 12:03am

God bless whoever you beautiful people are that you were able to find these statistics. Where did you find these?

6
Re: Game Bonus
by Zac :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 9:42am

ProFootballReference.com 's Player Game Finder ( http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/pgl_finder.cgi ).

For something like this, you want the "Season Games Matching Criteria" option. Choose an appropriate number of years (I like to go back 5 years, so that's 2006 to 2010), and set the Addition Criteria to Passing Yards >= 300 (for example), and then sort by passing yards.

If your QB bonus is at 350 yards or 325 yards, then you count how many QB games reached that level, and how many QB games reached 300. The number you then enter into KUBIAK is
QB_Bonus_Points * (325_yard_games / 300_yard games).

So if you give 4 points for reach 325 yards, it's 4 * ( 244 / 422 ).

7
Re: Game Bonus
by pastramimonster :: Fri, 08/26/2011 - 11:58am

Yeah, I've used football reference before. It just gets a little arduous when doing 100 yard rushing games dated ten years or so back as it only displays 100 results per page. I was hoping there was some excel data set out there with all football reference content in one file.

8
Re: Game Bonus
by gqinxs :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 9:31am

my league gives an 8 point bonus for 400 yards passing. Any suggestion of how to enter?

9
Re: Game Bonus
by elgato7664 :: Mon, 08/29/2011 - 12:37pm

Since 2006, 37 out of 422 300+ yd games = approx. 8.5%
8 x 8.5% = 0.7 pts per 300 yard passing game

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