Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Jul 2012

Game Bonus Yardage Thresholds

My league has weird game bonuses, e.g. 3 point bonus for RBs with >50 receiving yards, 3 point bonus for TEs with >80 receiving yards.

Is there a way to adjust the game bonus yardage thresholds so they are not all 100 yards? I am happy to edit the visual basic with a little guidance.

Posted by: fb29 on 17 Jul 2012

4 replies , Last at 20 Jul 2012, 4:55pm by Zac

Re: Game Bonus Yardage Thresholds
by nelson :: Thu, 07/19/2012 - 1:16pm

I have the same question and find it interesting that the FO guys answer the ranking/technical questions but not this question. Should be a simple answer.

Re: Game Bonus Yardage Thresholds
by Aaron Schatz :: Thu, 07/19/2012 - 1:37pm

The answer is that at a certain point, it's hard to add specifics that service every possible league format. How common are 80-yard thresholds for bonuses? Probably not very.

Re: Game Bonus Yardage Thresholds
by nelson :: Thu, 07/19/2012 - 1:44pm

You say it's "hard" to add some individual league specifics - does this mean there's a way for users to make these modifications?

Re: Game Bonus Yardage Thresholds
by Zac :: Fri, 07/20/2012 - 4:55pm

Let's be clear. The KUBIAK projections include an estimate of how many games in a season that each player will reach 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, or 100 receiving yards. That's the only number the spreadsheet knows. You can approximate the bonus for other scoring thresholds, but it doesn't really make much difference in the long run. You need to find out the frequency that your threshold happens vs the frequency of 100 yards happening, and then multiply the bonus by the ratio of the two.

Let's try it with RBs:
In the year 2011 there were 8 100 yard receiving games from RBs (I got this from checking the weekly RB stats for 2011 at FFToday.com).
There were 84 50-yard receiving games by RBs.
So in the options, you should set the bonus for 100-yard-receiving games by a RB at 3*(84/8), or 31.5. Now I'm betting this seems like a crazy high bonus to you. Well the highest projected number of 100YdReG by a RB is the .7 for Darren Sproles. If you give a bonus of 31.5, then KUBIAK will calculate (31.5*.7) 22 bonus points. Divide that by the 3 points per game that the bonus actually is and you're projection him to get 50 receiving yards 7 times. Last year he got 50 receiving yards ... 7 times. Ray Rice is getting 13.4 points, which is about 4.5 100YdReG projected. Last year he got 6. Now remember that I said Darren Sproles, the very highest projected receiving RB, gets 22 bonus points for this. MJD is projected for 0 100YdReG. So the difference between not doing the bonus at all and doing all this calculation to make it accurate is that Sproles gains 22 points on MJD. Over the course of the entire season. Most players are going to see very little movement.

For TEs the numbers are 28 100-YdReG, and 59 80-YdReG. So again your 100 yard receiving games from a TE bonus should be set to 3*(59/28), or about 6.

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