Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Aug 2010

Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy

For the first time in a while, I'm walking away from a draft thinking I rocked the table (Internet, actually, but whatevs).
QB, 2RB, 3WR, TE, W/R/T flex, K, D/ST; QBs get a half-point per completion and 6 points for a TD but it's 50 yards per point; PPR with 10 rushing yards and 20 receiving yards per point. The big variable is a point per 33 PR/KR yards. Kicking and defense are fairly standard, although pitching a shutout gets you 15 points.

1. (4) Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAX
2. (21) Tom Brady, QB, NE
3. (28) Jamaal Charles, RB, KC
4. (45) Hines Ward, WR, PIT
5. (52) Darren Sproles, RB, SD (w/the PPR and return yardage scoring, KUBIAK ranked Sproles 15th!)
6. (69) Eddie Royal. WR, DEN
7. (76) Ricky Williams, RB, MIA
8. (93) Steve Breaston, WR, ARI
9. (100) Tim Hightower, RB, ARI
10. (117) David Akers, K, PHI
11. (124) Mike Williams, WR, TB
12. (141) Heath Miller, TE, PIT
13. (148) Laurent Robinson, WR, STL
14. (165) Miami, D/ST
15. (172) Matt Cassel, QB, KC
16. (189) Benjamin Watson, TE, CLE (immediately traded for WAS TE Fred Davis).
Solid mix of dependable vets, overlooked talent and a high-upside rookie.
Thoughts?

Posted by: Gold_Star_for_Robot_Boy on 29 Aug 2010

8 replies , Last at 31 Aug 2010, 11:19pm by socctty

1
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by robi0420 :: Sun, 08/29/2010 - 4:42pm

I hate your receivers. Other than that, well, I hate your receivers.

2
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by Gold_Star_for_R... :: Sun, 08/29/2010 - 4:53pm

Yeah, it's a situation where my wideouts collectively will either crater or soar.
Usually, I make it a point to get a WR in the first three rounds but with Charles sitting there I had to take him.

3
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by socctty :: Sun, 08/29/2010 - 7:52pm

It sounds like we have similar league settings, although yours are a bit more unorthodox than mine.

I plan on "reaching" for Sproles in the 11th (at 105), but it's been my impression that my league-mates (A) don't have KUBIAK (B) forget that we get rewarded for return yardage, or underestimate it's impact. So perhaps I can afford waiting on him.

I took Hester last year a bit early and paid for it. I think that's the case with your Royal pick now. KUBIAK loves Royal for me as well, but I remember reading that he's lost his returner responsibilities which has a big impact on how he's rated by KUBIAK. My mocks still have me ending up with Leon Washington, Hester, and Sproles, though.

Your receivers are terrible. KUBIAK loves Hines Ward in my league as well but his age scares me, and I've passed on him as a WR3 in years past - why on earth would I take him as a WR1? He's one of the many guys I'm ignoring or discounting KUBIAK projections on this year. (Welker and Royal also)

Anyway it looks like you had a very KUBIAK-centric draft. I always have those too and I haven't finished higher than 4th, so beware! Haha

4
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by Zheng :: Mon, 08/30/2010 - 3:58am

Solid enough team but I wonder if you didn't reach for Sproles and Royal. Unless others in your league are in on KUBIAK they'll probably underestimate the impact of PPR and return yardage. But I think Mike Williams and Hightower will do well, so that should help.

Other than that the only question I have is, why Akers in the 10th?

5
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by Gold_Star_for_R... :: Mon, 08/30/2010 - 10:55am

Royal, in retrospect, was probably a reach. Sproles, well, I couldn't be sure no one else had KUBIAK - this is a league with some baseball stats guys, so it wouldn't surprise me at all if they also were FO fans.
Akers in the 10th... If my memory is correct, the thinking was: Gostkowski just got selected 6 picks previous, and that'll start the run on kickers; I don't like any of the TEs or D/STs out there as 10th-rounders; 117th is _exactly_ where KUBIAK has him, so I might as well pull the trigger.

6
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by DrunkenSuperman :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 1:56am

Yes, Sproles might be a reach, and the receivers are going to be trouble. I would've swapped out Sproles for whatever WR was best at that time.

And always let that first guy take his kicker too early and go about your business.

7
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by Gold_Star_for_R... :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 6:17pm

Upon further review...
I'm beginning to worry about my wideouts. Call it the Scary Wisdom of Crowds - if enough people say you've (blank)ed up, you may have (blank)ed up.

8
Re: Good draft - may be great if MJD stays healthy
by socctty :: Tue, 08/31/2010 - 11:19pm

I wouldn't be surprised if one of your receivers ends up being a guy that everyone else says "Boy, I wish I picked him in that round." Like Miles Austin or Mike Sims-Walker last year.

But when your most consistent AND top receiver is Hines Ward, you're in trouble. I think you relied on KUBIAK a bit too much, but it's something all of us KUBIAK fans someday learn. It took me three years to even bother adjusting it's predictions on the guys that KUBIAK is inordinately too high on - which is, anecdotally, what gets you in trouble with KUBIAK. You'll probably end up .500.

OK, I'm done pissing on your parade. But really - fix those WRs post-haste.

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