Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Aug 2010

Have 1st pick. Who will be there for 2nd?

This will be my first time drafting first, and I'm worried about waiting until that pick comes back. Anyone have advice about picking last in the 2nd round (12 man league).

Posted by: jboland17 on 19 Aug 2010

4 replies , Last at 28 Aug 2010, 4:22am by Zheng

1
Re: Have 1st pick. Who will be there for 2nd?
by andrew :: Fri, 08/20/2010 - 12:09am

I just went through one of these w/ first pick, one of those w/ everyone there.

Took Chris Johnson as the consensus overall pick (actually not that thrilled w/ him, didn't want to go first).

Got Mendenhall on the 2nd pick. Who Kubiak projected 2nd overall for my league. Go figure.

2
Re: Have 1st pick. Who will be there for 2nd?
by jboland17 :: Fri, 08/20/2010 - 10:51pm

Kubiak seemed to give WR a huge advantage with my league's scoring, so I'm worried that the top WRs will be gone by then.

3
Re: Have 1st pick. Who will be there for 2nd?
by socctty :: Thu, 08/26/2010 - 4:38am

I've never drafted first overall, but I have prepared for a 10-person league in which I was told I'd draft first overall and the league moderator forgot to adjust the computer settings from "random draft" to manually setting them, and of course I drafted 10th overall. Anyway, I've done some preparation for 1st overall!

Do other people in your league use KUBIAK? If not, I wouldn't worry too much about it. KUBIAK isn't perfect, but it should give you an advantage by identifying which players are being picked too early. Even if everyone grabs WRs from 2nd overall to your pick at 24, you should have ridiculous choices between RBs and QBs at 24th and 25th overall. My point is, unless EVERYONE uses KUBIAK in your league AND adheres to it, you're going to have a guy sitting there at 24/25 that you're going to be very happy about.

As far as I know, no one in my league uses KUBIAK, they all use the fantasy magazines and maybe a few guys know to reference Average Draft Position sites. I have noticed for four years now that it's frightening how closely these guys adhere to ADP, even as we change rules (from 0 PPR to .5 PPR to 1.0 PPR, or from 0 pts for return yards to 1 per 25 yds).

Last year, when we first went to 1 PPR, I started off a WR run 9th overall that ended with my wrap-around pick at 16th (IIRC). So maybe the guys in my league have wisened up a little bit - as I understand it, fantasy mags have started to adjust by showing PPR mock drafts as well.

To my great discredit, I have yet to win the league despite using KUBIAK for the past 2 years and no one else apparently using it. :-(

4
Re: Have 1st pick. Who will be there for 2nd?
by Zheng :: Sat, 08/28/2010 - 4:22am

Picking at the ends is annoying since you have to wait 18 picks before your turn comes up again. But sometimes you can do fun things like draft both members of a committee (e.g. D. Williams/J. Stewart) back to back, or else try and start a run by drafting two of the same position.

For your specific situation I'd generally plan on taking Manning, Mendenhall, or one of the eliter WRs. I'd recommend one of them be a WR because the WR ranks will be real thin by the time you come back at 4/5.

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